Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Ramaswamy says he would support Trump if he's the nominee, hits Christie

Ramaswamy repeated that he would support Trump if he is the nominee regardless of whether he's convicted of a crime.

"President Trump, I believe, was the best president of the 21st century," Ramswamy said before knocking Christie for his attacks on the former president:

"Your claim that Donald Trump is motivated by vengeance and grievance would be a lot more credible. If your entire campaign were not based on vengeance and grievance" against Trump.

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod


A majority (56 percent) of Republicans in a recent TIPP Insights/Issues & Insights poll feel that the charges against former President Donald Trump in both the classified documents case and the investigation into the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol are political harassment by the Biden administration. And in an August poll from Morning Consult, 69 percent of Republicans felt the 2020 election indictment was primarily motivated by a desire to damage Trump’s political career, rather than by evidence that he committed a crime.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Six Republican candidates raised their hands when asked if they'd support Trump as the party's nominee if he were convicted and still went on to win. Two, Christie and Hutchinson, did not. Christie wagged his finger and criticized Trump, saying it was "unbecoming" to behave as Trump had. The crowd booed Christie extensively, to the point that Baier has to shush the crowd like a schoolteacher, telling them they need to "get through" this part. -Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight


The debate turns to Trump

Trump has largely been absent from this debate so far. In the first half, he was only mentioned five times by name, although Hutchinson did take a swipe at “a former president who is under indictment.” But now the moderators are asking about his legal troubles directly.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


Welcome

The 2024 presidential election has been underway for months, but with tonight’s first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, we’re kicking off a new phase of the campaign. In these final five months before voting begins, we’re going to have monthly debates, dashes through Iowa, big-money fundraisers — and probably a culling of the field.

Tonight’s debate will feature eight candidates. Front-runner Donald Trump, who has a 37-percentage-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, will not be among them, as he has opted to skip the debate. Instead, we will hear from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Tim Scott; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

There are a few threads and tensions we’re going to be watching tonight. First, in the absence of Trump, will his challengers’ attempts to position themselves as a more favorable option fall flat? How will candidates make their case for being a better alternative to Trump without having the contrast on stage beside them? Secondly, what sort of friction will we see between the anti-Trump candidates and those running on more similar ideas or rhetoric?

We’ll keep an eye on all this and more. You’ll be hearing from the crew at FiveThirtyEight and ABC News — as well as some new friends at PolitiFact — throughout the night. The Fox News-hosted debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern, and we have some colleagues on the ground in Milwaukee who will ensure you’re going in with everything you need to know.

Thanks for joining us. Stay tuned as we update the blog with real-time analysis, charts, thoughts, questions, ideas, idle fancies and more. Leading up until the debate starts, we’ll run through the state of the race so far. Once the debate starts, we’ll make sure we’re addressing everything happening on stage, including what issues the candidates talk about, who they attack, how they position themselves and what Americans think.

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight