According to a July poll from NewsNation, 72 percent of Republican voters believe the criminal justice system isn’t tough enough on crime. That’s compared to 58 percent of voters overall, and just 42 percent of Democrats.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight

Pence was pressed on crime in some of the nation's major cities -- with rates that spiked parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic, though they have since dropped in some areas -- and whether the Trump administration's COVID-19 policies were in part to blame.

Pence deflected, saying, "The Democrats have been talking about defunding the police for the last five years. And we ought to be funding law enforcement, particularly in our major cities, at unprecedented levels."

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod

Scott was asked if he's bought and paid for after Ramaswamy said he's the only candidate on stage who isn't bought and paid for. Possibly mishearing the question, he responded, "Absolutely." The moderators repeated it and he responded, "Absolutely not."

Then Scott proceeded to chide the rest of the stage for attacking one another.

"Here is what the American people deserve. It's a debate about the issues that affect their lives. Going back and forth and being childish is not helpful to the American people to decide on the next leader of our country,” Scott said.

-ABC News’ Gabriella Abdul-Hakim

Scott and Pence have both mentioned a federal 15-week abortion ban. A majority of Republican primary voters say they support a such a ban, according to a July survey from The New York Times/Siena College. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans said they support a 15-week ban, including 41 percent who say they strongly support such a ban. Thirty-six percent oppose it and 6 percent are unsure.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight

The 2024 presidential election has been underway for months, but with tonight’s first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, we’re kicking off a new phase of the campaign. In these final five months before voting begins, we’re going to have monthly debates, dashes through Iowa, big-money fundraisers — and probably a culling of the field.

Tonight’s debate will feature eight candidates. Front-runner Donald Trump, who has a 37-percentage-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, will not be among them, as he has opted to skip the debate. Instead, we will hear from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Tim Scott; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

There are a few threads and tensions we’re going to be watching tonight. First, in the absence of Trump, will his challengers’ attempts to position themselves as a more favorable option fall flat? How will candidates make their case for being a better alternative to Trump without having the contrast on stage beside them? Secondly, what sort of friction will we see between the anti-Trump candidates and those running on more similar ideas or rhetoric?

We’ll keep an eye on all this and more. You’ll be hearing from the crew at FiveThirtyEight and ABC News — as well as some new friends at PolitiFact — throughout the night. The Fox News-hosted debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern, and we have some colleagues on the ground in Milwaukee who will ensure you’re going in with everything you need to know.

Thanks for joining us. Stay tuned as we update the blog with real-time analysis, charts, thoughts, questions, ideas, idle fancies and more. Leading up until the debate starts, we’ll run through the state of the race so far. Once the debate starts, we’ll make sure we’re addressing everything happening on stage, including what issues the candidates talk about, who they attack, how they position themselves and what Americans think.

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight