Outside of the segment on Trump's indictments and his behavior on Jan. 6, it's been a bit surprising that there's been little discussion of him otherwise. There've been a few references to actions taken prior to Biden taking office, indirectly involving Trump, but not much specifically about him. That has turned this debate into something of an alternative universe where these are the main eight candidates, not the eight who are badly trailing the main guy not in the room.
-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight

Yeah, Maya, I am surprised Trump didn’t come up more. With him not on stage, I actually thought it would be easier for the candidates to swipe at him, since there was no risk of him punching directly back. But with some notable exceptions, like Christie and Hutchinson (and even then, only on a couple occasions), the candidates showed little interest in hammering away at the primary front-runner. I think that’s a questionable strategy since none of these candidates will be able to earn majority support in the primary without stealing some of it from Trump.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

Sixty-eight percent of Americans think the government is withholding information about UFOs, and three-fourths think there is some form of life on other planets. The number of Americans who suspect UFOs have been spotted has also increased, and 41 percent believe that some spotted UFOs are alien spacecraft. This has only been increased in recent years with Navy pilots reporting strange sightings over the past decade, along with recent congressional hearings about the issue.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight

Christie was seen smiling and shaking his head as Fox News moderator Martha MacCallum began to ask about UFO ecounters.

"I get the UFO question? Come on, man!" Christie said.

"I think it's horrible that just because I'm from New Jersey, you asked me about unidentified flying objects and martians," he continued. "We're different but we're not that different."

The 2024 presidential election has been underway for months, but with tonight’s first Republican primary debate in Milwaukee, we’re kicking off a new phase of the campaign. In these final five months before voting begins, we’re going to have monthly debates, dashes through Iowa, big-money fundraisers — and probably a culling of the field.

Tonight’s debate will feature eight candidates. Front-runner Donald Trump, who has a 37-percentage-point lead in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, will not be among them, as he has opted to skip the debate. Instead, we will hear from Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis; entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy; former Vice President Mike Pence; Sen. Tim Scott; former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley; former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson; North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum; and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie.

There are a few threads and tensions we’re going to be watching tonight. First, in the absence of Trump, will his challengers’ attempts to position themselves as a more favorable option fall flat? How will candidates make their case for being a better alternative to Trump without having the contrast on stage beside them? Secondly, what sort of friction will we see between the anti-Trump candidates and those running on more similar ideas or rhetoric?

We’ll keep an eye on all this and more. You’ll be hearing from the crew at FiveThirtyEight and ABC News — as well as some new friends at PolitiFact — throughout the night. The Fox News-hosted debate begins at 9 p.m. Eastern, and we have some colleagues on the ground in Milwaukee who will ensure you’re going in with everything you need to know.

Thanks for joining us. Stay tuned as we update the blog with real-time analysis, charts, thoughts, questions, ideas, idle fancies and more. Leading up until the debate starts, we’ll run through the state of the race so far. Once the debate starts, we’ll make sure we’re addressing everything happening on stage, including what issues the candidates talk about, who they attack, how they position themselves and what Americans think.

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight