Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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RNC to pitch early voting with ad featuring Trump, other candidates
The Republican National Committee will release an ad during the debate Wednesday night promoting early voting -- a method that some in the GOP acknowledge they have fallen behind on in recent years.
Included in the ad are RNC Chairwoman Ronna McDaniel, former Vice President Pence and former President Trump, who promotes the party's new early voting effort launched earlier this year.
The party is also planning to have a Bank Your Vote booth in Milwaukee on Wednesday, with absentee ballot request forms from all 56 states and territories.
The GOP has struggled to regain parity with Democrats on early voting after Trump baselessly lambasted the method as ripe for widespread fraud, without providing evidence for his claims.
-ABC News' Tal Axelrod
Will Biden debate the GOP victor? His team is noncommittal -- for now
President Joe Biden's reelection campaign was noncommittal Wednesday when asked if he would debate the ultimate GOP presidential nominee.
"We have not had a conversation about that at all," Biden campaign co-chair Cedric Richmond told reporters during a press conference Wednesday. "I'm sure one day we will. But it's not today and I don't have any news on that. But what we're going to continue to do is continue to govern because Vice President [Kamala] Harris and President Biden have a job to do and they take it serious. So when we have news on that, we’ll let you know."
Biden and his allies have gone after the entire Republican primary field, tying them all to the "MAGA" brand of former President Trump.
However, the future of presidential general election debates is up in the air after the Republican National Committee last year voted to quit the Commission on Presidential Debates, the non-partisan group that has put on general election debates since 1988.
Biden's campaign also defended its decision to not engage in any Democratic primary debates, boasting that the president, as the incumbent, is the presumed nominee despite facing challenges from Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson.
-ABC News' Tal Axelrod
Biden says he'll try to watch some of the debate, doesn't have high expectations
President Joe Biden said earlier Wednesday that he will try to watch some of the debate that could help determine who his opponent will be next year.
Yet when asked by a reporter what his "expectation" is, Biden simply responded, "I have none," with a laugh.
Trump, the primary front-runner so far, is not appearing at Wednesday's debate, lowering the chances that Biden's general election opponent will be on stage.
-ABC News' Tal Axelrod
How to evaluate the debate like a pro
In the aftermath of a debate, it can be hard to figure out the actual impact of a viral moment or heated exchange. Here are some data-driven approaches that can help cut through the noise:
First, ignore “instant polls” that ask questions only among people who watched the debate. That group is not likely to represent the feelings of the broader population. Instead, look for post-debate polls — (like ours with Ipsos and the Washington Post) — that ask questions among the same group of Americans both pre- and post-debate.
Second, in the days following the debate, look at data that captures attention to candidates, such as trends in search results or media coverage, to determine which candidate made the biggest splash. Media attention is crucial for candidates who aren’t well known to gain traction in the polls and with donors.
Finally, look for changes in horse-race polls in the week or two after the debate. There is a lot of noise in primary polls (especially this time around) and it can take some time for changes in public opinion to be reflected in our polling average.
The big thing to remember is that what’s important to journalists and television pundits may not be what’s important to the public, and we have to wait for pollsters to ask them how they feel.
-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Christie and Scott
I’m monitoring Christie and Scott tonight. Even though the two candidates are polling similarly in the 3 to 4 percent range in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, they are a subject in contrasts. Although Pence has been more vocally critical of Trump recently, Christie is the most high-profile, full-on anti-Trump candidate on stage. Realistically, Christie has very little chance at the GOP nomination because he has negative net favorability ratings among Republicans. But that may mean he will focus almost entirely tonight on attacking Trump rather than making appeals to the party base. As a result, Christie could be a popular foil for the contenders on stage who have largely eschewed going after Trump, or have even defended him.
Meanwhile, Scott arguably has one of the highest ceilings of any candidate on stage. He’s not nearly as well-known to GOP voters as Trump or DeSantis, but Scott gets rave reviews from Republicans who are familiar with him. That means tonight is an opportunity for him to expand his reach and also potentially increase the share of GOP primary voters who would consider voting for him. I’ll be interested to see how much he leans into his “happy warrior” image as a means of differentiating himself from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, and whether he tries to rise above the fray to some extent if some of the other candidates — especially Christie — get into verbal fisticuffs.
–Analysis from Geoffrey Skelley