Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Larry Elder, Perry Johnson contend they are not going down without a fight

They didn’t qualify for the debate stage. Now, they’re vowing to take legal action.

Holding his own press conference outside the debate venue earlier Wednesday, Elder said he would file a formal complaint with the Federal Election Commission if wasn’t allowed on stage -- which he later followed through on.

ABC asked him if he still plans on watching or attending the debate if they don't respond, to which he said: "I'll be there, one way or the other, but I'm going to be up on that stage, trust me. If I were a betting person, and I'm not, I would bet the forum that Larry Elder is going to be on that debate stage.”

Johnson is planning to file two lawsuits against the GOP, he said in an interview with ABC News Radio National Correspondent Steven Portnoy.

Ahead of the debate, Johnson’s team was spotted across the street from the Fiserv Forum wearing "Perry vs Everybody" shirts.

On Tuesday, McDaniel told ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott that the party was not trying to spite candidates who did not reach their requirements.

“They’ve got time for other debates and they can still continue to work towards California in September,” McDaniel said. “This has nothing to do with them. We just stuck to our rules.”

-ABC News' Kendall Ross, Gabriella Abdul-Hakim and Isabella Murray


Burgum will debate, already fundraising off injury

Burgum’s debate appearance was in doubt after he suffered an injury while playing pick-up basketball with his staff.

Just hours before the start time, he announced he’ll be on stage after all.

His team is already fundraising off the incident, selling T-shirts with a silhouette of a cowboy hat-clad Burgum playing basketball -- a twist on the famous Nike Air Jordan "Jumpman" logo.

Earlier in the day, the governor was visibly emotional as he discussed the pain he was feeling with ABC News.

"I'm someone who's never taken prescription pain meds and I'm not doing that today. Even though people said that'd be a good idea. Because I’d rather … I mean so many Americans make so many sacrifices, think law enforcement, think of military, what they do for all of us," he said.

"I mean, if you're gonna lead this country, you got to be able to stand on one leg for two hours. You know, it's not, it's not 'Dancing with the Stars.'"

-ABC News' Alexandra Hutzler and Oren Oppenheim


Check in on our polling average

As you watch the debate, keep an eye on which candidates separate themselves from the crowd. That’s because right now, the Republican presidential primary is not so much a race for first place as it is for second and third. FiveThirtyEight’s latest average of national GOP primary polls has Trump at 52 percent of the vote among likely Republican primary voters. DeSantis is a distant second at 15 percent, Ramaswamy is at 10 percent, Pence and Scott are at 4 percent, and Haley and Christie are at 3 percent. Everyone else is below 1 percent.

Trump’s lead will be very hard for the other candidates to close — so their best hope at this point is to stay in the game, in case Trump drops out (unlikely as that seems right now) or something else changes. DeSantis is currently in position to be the would-be front-runner if Trump drops out, but depending on debate performances and other factors, he could wind up in a close race with one of the other candidates currently clustered in that 5-10 percent range.

-Analysis by G. Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight


For now, Trump not planning to attend 2nd GOP debate: Senior campaign adviser

Chris LaCivita, a senior campaign adviser to Trump, said on the conservative “Ruthless” podcast streamed live before the debate that Trump does not currently plan to attend the second GOP debate, set for next month in California, but indicated that Trump could change his mind.

"He's not going to be in California ... Well, first of all, with President Trump, you know, he could change his mind at any moment … And you should just assume that he won't until he does,” LaCivita said.

Both fellow primary candidates and GOP officials have urged Trump to be on the debate stage, although some candidates have downplayed the significance of his absence.

-ABC News’ Laura Gersony


What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Christie and Scott

I’m monitoring Christie and Scott tonight. Even though the two candidates are polling similarly in the 3 to 4 percent range in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, they are a subject in contrasts. Although Pence has been more vocally critical of Trump recently, Christie is the most high-profile, full-on anti-Trump candidate on stage. Realistically, Christie has very little chance at the GOP nomination because he has negative net favorability ratings among Republicans. But that may mean he will focus almost entirely tonight on attacking Trump rather than making appeals to the party base. As a result, Christie could be a popular foil for the contenders on stage who have largely eschewed going after Trump, or have even defended him.

Meanwhile, Scott arguably has one of the highest ceilings of any candidate on stage. He’s not nearly as well-known to GOP voters as Trump or DeSantis, but Scott gets rave reviews from Republicans who are familiar with him. That means tonight is an opportunity for him to expand his reach and also potentially increase the share of GOP primary voters who would consider voting for him. I’ll be interested to see how much he leans into his “happy warrior” image as a means of differentiating himself from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, and whether he tries to rise above the fray to some extent if some of the other candidates — especially Christie — get into verbal fisticuffs.

–Analysis from Geoffrey Skelley