Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
Read deeper:
A potentially awkward moment for Pence
Christie is praising Pence for standing up to Trump after the 2020 election. But I don’t know if Pence wants an endorsement from the most-booed candidate of the night.
— Analysis by Leah Askarinam of FiveThirtyEight
Republicans remain unconvinced of former President Donald Trump’s guilt: According to an August poll from Premise, 77 percent of Republicans don’t believe Trump is guilty of trying to overturn the 2020 election. And in a CivicScience poll from August, 60 percent of Republicans said that Trump wasn’t guilty of any of the criminal charges he’s been indicted on across three different cases.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Hutchinson has been critical of Trump since entering the race, calling on him to drop out, especially after his indictments. He pushed back against the loyalty pledge to support the eventual nominee, and tonight did not raise his hand when asked if he would support the nominee. "Over a year ago I said Donald Trump was morally disqualified from being president," he said tonight, to boos from the audience.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Fact-checking Scott’s claim that DOJ called parents 'domestic terrorists'
In talking about the weaponization of the Department of Justice, Scott trotted out a line he’s used before — that parents at school board meetings, “they’re called, under this DOJ, domestic terrorists.”
That’s False.
In 2021, Attorney General Merrick Garland issued a memo directing the FBI to address violent threats against school board members. The memo never called concerned parents "domestic terrorists," and maintained that "spirited debate" surrounding school policy is protected by the U.S. Constitution. A lawsuit against Garland also found that parents’ rights had not been violated.
-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact
What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Christie and Scott
I’m monitoring Christie and Scott tonight. Even though the two candidates are polling similarly in the 3 to 4 percent range in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, they are a subject in contrasts. Although Pence has been more vocally critical of Trump recently, Christie is the most high-profile, full-on anti-Trump candidate on stage. Realistically, Christie has very little chance at the GOP nomination because he has negative net favorability ratings among Republicans. But that may mean he will focus almost entirely tonight on attacking Trump rather than making appeals to the party base. As a result, Christie could be a popular foil for the contenders on stage who have largely eschewed going after Trump, or have even defended him.
Meanwhile, Scott arguably has one of the highest ceilings of any candidate on stage. He’s not nearly as well-known to GOP voters as Trump or DeSantis, but Scott gets rave reviews from Republicans who are familiar with him. That means tonight is an opportunity for him to expand his reach and also potentially increase the share of GOP primary voters who would consider voting for him. I’ll be interested to see how much he leans into his “happy warrior” image as a means of differentiating himself from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, and whether he tries to rise above the fray to some extent if some of the other candidates — especially Christie — get into verbal fisticuffs.
–Analysis from Geoffrey Skelley