Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
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Pence and Ramaswamy trading barbs. Pence opens with America being a faith-filled country without an identity crisis, while Ramaswamy says we're in a dark place and it's not morning in America. It echoed Trump's "American carnage" during his first inaugural address.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Where do Americans stand on an abortion ban?
Because there was so much chatter on Pence's support of a 15-week abortion ban, I asked Fivey Fox (aka FiveThirtyEight's Senior Researcher) to pull all the polls we've collected on the subject since September 2021. Over that whole time period Americans were split 44-44 on the issue, but in polls conducted this year they are opposed 51-41.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
According to a July poll from NewsNation, 72 percent of Republican voters believe the criminal justice system isn’t tough enough on crime. That’s compared to 58 percent of voters overall, and just 42 percent of Democrats.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Pence pressed on rising crime during the pandemic
Pence was pressed on crime in some of the nation's major cities -- with rates that spiked parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic, though they have since dropped in some areas -- and whether the Trump administration's COVID-19 policies were in part to blame.
Pence deflected, saying, "The Democrats have been talking about defunding the police for the last five years. And we ought to be funding law enforcement, particularly in our major cities, at unprecedented levels."
-ABC News' Tal Axelrod
What FiveThirtyEight is watching for tonight: Christie and Scott
I’m monitoring Christie and Scott tonight. Even though the two candidates are polling similarly in the 3 to 4 percent range in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average, they are a subject in contrasts. Although Pence has been more vocally critical of Trump recently, Christie is the most high-profile, full-on anti-Trump candidate on stage. Realistically, Christie has very little chance at the GOP nomination because he has negative net favorability ratings among Republicans. But that may mean he will focus almost entirely tonight on attacking Trump rather than making appeals to the party base. As a result, Christie could be a popular foil for the contenders on stage who have largely eschewed going after Trump, or have even defended him.
Meanwhile, Scott arguably has one of the highest ceilings of any candidate on stage. He’s not nearly as well-known to GOP voters as Trump or DeSantis, but Scott gets rave reviews from Republicans who are familiar with him. That means tonight is an opportunity for him to expand his reach and also potentially increase the share of GOP primary voters who would consider voting for him. I’ll be interested to see how much he leans into his “happy warrior” image as a means of differentiating himself from DeSantis and Ramaswamy, and whether he tries to rise above the fray to some extent if some of the other candidates — especially Christie — get into verbal fisticuffs.
–Analysis from Geoffrey Skelley