Six Republican candidates raised their hands when asked if they'd support Trump as the party's nominee if he were convicted and still went on to win. Two, Christie and Hutchinson, did not. Christie wagged his finger and criticized Trump, saying it was "unbecoming" to behave as Trump had. The crowd booed Christie extensively, to the point that Baier has to shush the crowd like a schoolteacher, telling them they need to "get through" this part. -Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight

Trump has largely been absent from this debate so far. In the first half, he was only mentioned five times by name, although Hutchinson did take a swipe at “a former president who is under indictment.” But now the moderators are asking about his legal troubles directly.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

The moderators finally turn to discussing Trump, who has skipped the debate for a (pre-recorded!) interview with Tucker Carlson. It's clearly intentional that they waited this long — Trump is ahead by 37 points in our national polling average, so he's an obvious elephant (not) in the room. In some ways the entire debate is moot because of that lead. Remember that these candidates are running for second and third place right now, not first.

-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight

Burgum has mentioned his small-town roots a few times during the debate, most recently to hold up small towns as an example of how to beat back rising crime. A lot of what distinguishes Burgum from the field -- his success as tech CEO, his more pragmatic politics, his low-key demeanor -- don't necessarily play well in today's Republican Party, but small-town politics is usually a winner. Just look at the success of Jason Aldean's "Try That In a Small Town" among conservatives earlier this month.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections

Tonight I’m on Pence and Hutchinson duty. Neither candidate appears to have a great shot at winning the primary — the former vice president is at 4 percent in FiveThirtyEight’s national polling average while the former Arkansas governor hasn’t even garnered 1 percent — but Pence at least has a decent chance of making a debate-night splash. Given the events of Jan. 6, 2021, Pence has the strongest claim to the anti-Trump “lane” of the primary. I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw some real fireworks between him and the GOP candidates who have been quick to jump to Trump’s defense after the bad news he has been hit with over the past year. For his part, Hutchinson will have to pull off a masterclass in persuasion and performance to gain substantial ground. In our poll with Ipsos and The Washington Post, only 6 percent of Republicans said they were even considering voting for him, much less were intending to do so. In a more fluid primary, he’d maybe have a shot at doing something about that. But with Trump as the default and other candidates leading the various anti-Trump lanes, those are really tough numbers to come back from.

–Analysis from G. Elliott Morris_