The candidates are now debating abortion, which has obviously been a hot-button issue lately, but it’s actually not super important to Republican primary voters right now. According to our FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll, only 6 percent of Republicans identified limiting abortion as one of their top three issues.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

In the commercial break we get an ad targeting pro-Ukraine Republicans from Defending Democracy Together, a PAC led by a group of anti-Trump conservatives who have been very active in politics since 2017. In a poll from the Pew Research Center in June 44 percent of Republicans said the US was giving too much aid to Ukraine. I'm not sure how much this ad is going to register; Ukraine and national defense barely register in polls of Americans' most important problem these days. I think it says more about the divide in the party over Trump — who hasn't been mentioned in the debate at all so far.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight

DeSantis quickly shut down a question from Fox News' Martha MaCallum asking candidates to raise their hands if they believe human behavior is causing climate change.

"Look, we’re not schoolchildren. Let's have the debate," DeSantis said.

He then largely declined to answer the question at hand, instead criticizing President Joe Biden's response to the Maui wildfires in Hawaii. (Biden's aides have pushed back on such criticism.)

"As somebody that has handled disasters in Florida, you have to be there present and helping people who are doing this," DeSantis said.

On the climate change question, DeSantis once again steered things toward one of the strengths of his record: handling natural disasters. Eighty percent of Republicans viewed his response to Hurricane Ian in 2022 favorably, and he got a boost in the polls after the hurricane hit, perhaps contributing to his 19-point victory in the 2022 gubernatorial race.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

Before tonight’s debate kicks off, FiveThirtyEight, The Washington Post and Ipsos partnered to ask Republican voters about how they might vote in the upcoming Republican presidential primaries. Specifically, we asked 4,968 likely Republican voters which issues are most important to them when deciding which candidate to vote for in the primaries, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel.

We offered respondents a list of 16 issues and allowed them to select up to three. Of the topics that we asked about, voters were most concerned about “getting inflation or increasing costs under control” (53 percent of respondents selected this issue), something Republican voters have been concerned about since at least the 2022 midterms, according to a previous FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll. Other issues that were top of mind for voters were “controlling immigration” (36 percent), “someone fighting against liberalism and the woke agenda” (25 percent) and “ability to beat Joe Biden” (25 percent).

If tonight’s debate touches upon those top issues, voters might get some clarity on who they are considering voting for when primary season comes around.

-Analysis by Holly Fuong of FiveThirtyEight