Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Outside of the segment on Trump's indictments and his behavior on Jan. 6, it's been a bit surprising that there's been little discussion of him otherwise. There've been a few references to actions taken prior to Biden taking office, indirectly involving Trump, but not much specifically about him. That has turned this debate into something of an alternative universe where these are the main eight candidates, not the eight who are badly trailing the main guy not in the room.
-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight


Yeah, Maya, I am surprised Trump didn’t come up more. With him not on stage, I actually thought it would be easier for the candidates to swipe at him, since there was no risk of him punching directly back. But with some notable exceptions, like Christie and Hutchinson (and even then, only on a couple occasions), the candidates showed little interest in hammering away at the primary front-runner. I think that’s a questionable strategy since none of these candidates will be able to earn majority support in the primary without stealing some of it from Trump.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight


Sixty-eight percent of Americans think the government is withholding information about UFOs, and three-fourths think there is some form of life on other planets. The number of Americans who suspect UFOs have been spotted has also increased, and 41 percent believe that some spotted UFOs are alien spacecraft. This has only been increased in recent years with Navy pilots reporting strange sightings over the past decade, along with recent congressional hearings about the issue.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight


Christie shakes his head at UFO question

Christie was seen smiling and shaking his head as Fox News moderator Martha MacCallum began to ask about UFO ecounters.

"I get the UFO question? Come on, man!" Christie said.

"I think it's horrible that just because I'm from New Jersey, you asked me about unidentified flying objects and martians," he continued. "We're different but we're not that different."


Which issues are Republican voters most concerned about?

Before tonight’s debate kicks off, FiveThirtyEight, The Washington Post and Ipsos partnered to ask Republican voters about how they might vote in the upcoming Republican presidential primaries. Specifically, we asked 4,968 likely Republican voters which issues are most important to them when deciding which candidate to vote for in the primaries, using Ipsos’s KnowledgePanel.

We offered respondents a list of 16 issues and allowed them to select up to three. Of the topics that we asked about, voters were most concerned about “getting inflation or increasing costs under control” (53 percent of respondents selected this issue), something Republican voters have been concerned about since at least the 2022 midterms, according to a previous FiveThirtyEight/Ipsos poll. Other issues that were top of mind for voters were “controlling immigration” (36 percent), “someone fighting against liberalism and the woke agenda” (25 percent) and “ability to beat Joe Biden” (25 percent).

If tonight’s debate touches upon those top issues, voters might get some clarity on who they are considering voting for when primary season comes around.

-Analysis by Holly Fuong of FiveThirtyEight