Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more
The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.
The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.
Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.
Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.
ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.
Read deeper:
Pence and Ramaswamy trading barbs. Pence opens with America being a faith-filled country without an identity crisis, while Ramaswamy says we're in a dark place and it's not morning in America. It echoed Trump's "American carnage" during his first inaugural address.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight
Where do Americans stand on an abortion ban?
Because there was so much chatter on Pence's support of a 15-week abortion ban, I asked Fivey Fox (aka FiveThirtyEight's Senior Researcher) to pull all the polls we've collected on the subject since September 2021. Over that whole time period Americans were split 44-44 on the issue, but in polls conducted this year they are opposed 51-41.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight
According to a July poll from NewsNation, 72 percent of Republican voters believe the criminal justice system isn’t tough enough on crime. That’s compared to 58 percent of voters overall, and just 42 percent of Democrats.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight
Pence pressed on rising crime during the pandemic
Pence was pressed on crime in some of the nation's major cities -- with rates that spiked parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic, though they have since dropped in some areas -- and whether the Trump administration's COVID-19 policies were in part to blame.
Pence deflected, saying, "The Democrats have been talking about defunding the police for the last five years. And we ought to be funding law enforcement, particularly in our major cities, at unprecedented levels."
-ABC News' Tal Axelrod
Who’s campaigning hardest in the early states?
This debate might be going out to a national audience, but the 2024 Republican presidential primary will be decided on a state-by-state basis — and because they’re the first to vote, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will have an outsized impact on the race.
We’ve been collecting data on how many times each candidate has visited each early state, and there are some revealing trends. For one thing, the candidates seem to think Iowa and New Hampshire are much more important than South Carolina and Nevada. They’ve visited the first two more than 90 times each but South Carolina only 30 times and Nevada only four times. In addition, some candidates seem to be putting all their eggs in either New Hampshire’s or Iowa’s basket. For example, Christie and Hurd are focusing almost exclusively on New Hampshire — perhaps the famously independent Granite State will prove more receptive to their anti-Trump brand. Hutchinson, meanwhile, is focusing on Iowa.
Overall, Ramaswamy and Haley have paid the most visits to early states — though that’s partly because they announced their campaigns earlier than most other candidates.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight