Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Tim Scott was just asked about government spending. In a March poll by AP-NORC, 88 percent of Republicans said that the federal government is spending too much. However, in the same survey, a majority of Republicans thought the government was spending too little on some key areas, including border security (85 percent), law enforcement (67 percent), infrastructure (61 percent), Social Security (57 percent), military (57 percent) and education (52 percent).
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Consumer prices and inflation

I wrote about this earlier, but high consumer prices are probably the biggest way that Americans understand the economy. Biden's trying to make the case that overall the economy is on the upswing, and he has some data points to back him up. And there's not a lot the president can do about inflation. But voters have been sour on the economy since Biden took office. Fifty-three percent of Republican voters said getting prices under control was a top issue in a FiveThirtyEight/Washington Post/Ipsos poll released today.

— Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight


DeSantis starts with a dig at 'Bidenomics'

"Our country is in decline," DeSantis said in response to the first debate question, on the economy. "This decline is not inevitable. It's a choice. We need to send Joe Biden back to his basement and reverse American decline."

DeSantis also took a swipe at the president's son Hunter, criticizing Hunter for selling high-priced artwork while other people are struggling to afford groceries.

"It starts with understanding we must reverse Bidenomics so that middle-class families have a chance to succeed again," DeSantis said, referring to the name that the White House has used to popularize what they see as the president's successful platform.


Hello from the debate spin room in Milwaukee

I am here in Milwaukee in the spin room. If you think journalism is glamorous, let me disabuse you of that notion. The media is being housed in what is essentially a parking garage at the FiservForum and the bathrooms are outside porta-potties. By the way, it was a 100-degree day in Milwaukee, so just going to the bathroom is a bit of an experience. And yes, I would like some Wisconsin cheese with my whine. Anyway, I'll be quiet about the plight of the reporters, we are here to hear about the plight of Americans and what these candidates have to say about it. Let's begin!
–Analysis from Galen Druke of FiveThirtyEight


Who’s campaigning hardest in the early states?

This debate might be going out to a national audience, but the 2024 Republican presidential primary will be decided on a state-by-state basis — and because they’re the first to vote, Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada will have an outsized impact on the race.

We’ve been collecting data on how many times each candidate has visited each early state, and there are some revealing trends. For one thing, the candidates seem to think Iowa and New Hampshire are much more important than South Carolina and Nevada. They’ve visited the first two more than 90 times each but South Carolina only 30 times and Nevada only four times. In addition, some candidates seem to be putting all their eggs in either New Hampshire’s or Iowa’s basket. For example, Christie and Hurd are focusing almost exclusively on New Hampshire — perhaps the famously independent Granite State will prove more receptive to their anti-Trump brand. Hutchinson, meanwhile, is focusing on Iowa.

Overall, Ramaswamy and Haley have paid the most visits to early states — though that’s partly because they announced their campaigns earlier than most other candidates.

-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight