Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


0

Trump leads everyone on stage by nearly 40 points

The moderators finally turn to discussing Trump, who has skipped the debate for a (pre-recorded!) interview with Tucker Carlson. It's clearly intentional that they waited this long — Trump is ahead by 37 points in our national polling average, so he's an obvious elephant (not) in the room. In some ways the entire debate is moot because of that lead. Remember that these candidates are running for second and third place right now, not first.

-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight


Burgum has mentioned his small-town roots a few times during the debate, most recently to hold up small towns as an example of how to beat back rising crime. A lot of what distinguishes Burgum from the field -- his success as tech CEO, his more pragmatic politics, his low-key demeanor -- don't necessarily play well in today's Republican Party, but small-town politics is usually a winner. Just look at the success of Jason Aldean's "Try That In a Small Town" among conservatives earlier this month.
-Analysis by Jacob Rubashkin, Inside Elections


Mostly peaceful protests took place outside debate venue at start of night

A group of more than 100 anti-Republican protestors temporarily took to the street outside Fiserv Forum after the debate began.

The group was advocating on behalf of several causes championed by the left, carrying signs advocating for abortion rights, transgender rights, immigrant rights and Black Lives Matter, among other causes.

Some of the signs were more explicitly political in nature, directly targeting GOP candidates.

One protestor carried a sign reading “Down with DeSantis.”

The group cheered, whistled and chanted as they advanced down the street.

“Get up, get down, Milwaukee is a union town,” was one chant that could be heard.

The protestors were accompanied by legal observers.

The group walked down an open street and at one point briefly blocked traffic. The protestors were otherwise peaceful and dissipated soon after they began.

-ABC News’ Allison Pecorin and Olivia Osteen


The candidates didn't seem eager to talk about climate change

The candidates came to the debate prepared with answers about abortion – carefully considering their wording, and, in a stark departure from the first half hour, actually answering the moderators’ question on the issue.

One thing the candidates didn’t want to talk about? Climate change. The moderators asked the candidates to raise their hand if they believed human behavior was driving climate change — but that didn’t happen. Instead, DeSantis said he wanted to debate rather than answer a question like “school children.” Ramaswamy chimed in to say “the climate change agenda is a hoax,” drawing boos from the crowd, though it wasn’t clear what exactly they were booing. Christie jumped in to say that Ramaswamy sounded like both ChatGPT and Obama. Haley decided that this was the moment to quote Margaret Thatcher — “if you want something done ask a woman” — though she did answer that climate change was real, putting the onus on China. And Scott used the moment to chide the rest of the field for being “childish.”

— Analysis by Leah Askarinam of FiveThirtyEight


Who’s dishing out for advertisements?

One challenger to Trump has surged ahead — in ad buys, at least. Scott announced an $8 million ad buy this month. The bulk of that, $6.6 million, will go toward TV advertisements in early primary states Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Washington Post. That’s on top of the $40 million ad buy planned by a super PAC supporting Scott that was announced last month.

Trump and DeSantis, the two front-runners, had dominated in early ad spending. But challengers like Scott have stepped up as they’ve tried to qualify for debates and raise name recognition in early voting states. Super PACs supporting Haley and Burgum have also increased spending recently. Stand for America Fund, Inc., which is aligned with Haley, spent $2.3 million on ads so far in August, while Best of America, which backs Burgum, has spent $2.1 million, according to reporting from NBC News.

Meanwhile, Trump-supporting PACs have spent millions on the former president’s legal fees as the number of indictments filed against him has risen to four. That will leave less money for spending on ads going forward, but Trump remains the top campaign fundraiser.

-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight