Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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Christie on gun violence: 'Lock up these violent criminals'

Christie again focused on his record as New Jersey governor when asked about how he'd address shootings and gun violence plaguing the nation.

He accused prosecutors of not arresting violent criminals and said a "President Christie" would appoint attorney general to instruct U.S. attorney to do so.

"We have plenty of room in the federal prisons to lock up these violent criminals and clean up what's going on all across this country and these individuals," Christie said.


Fact-checking Pence on public support for a 15-week abortion ban

During the abortion back-and-forth, Pence claimed that 70 percent of Americans support a 15-week abortion ban. He’s cherry picking the results from one poll.

A 2022 survey from the Center for American Political Studies at Harvard University and The Harris Poll asked respondents, "Do you think your state should allow abortion…?”

Twenty-three percent said up to 15 weeks, 12 percent said up to six weeks and 37 percent said only in cases of rape and incest. That’s 72 percent all together. But answers in surveys vary greatly depending on how the question is asked.

A 2022 Economist/YouGov poll asked specifically about a 15-week ban — 39 percent supported it, 46 percent opposed it. A 2023 PBS NewsHour/NPR/Marist poll asked respondents whether abortion should be allowed up until 24 weeks — 44 percent said yes.

-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact


Pence and Ramaswamy trading barbs. Pence opens with America being a faith-filled country without an identity crisis, while Ramaswamy says we're in a dark place and it's not morning in America. It echoed Trump's "American carnage" during his first inaugural address.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight


Where do Americans stand on an abortion ban?

Because there was so much chatter on Pence's support of a 15-week abortion ban, I asked Fivey Fox (aka FiveThirtyEight's Senior Researcher) to pull all the polls we've collected on the subject since September 2021. Over that whole time period Americans were split 44-44 on the issue, but in polls conducted this year they are opposed 51-41.
-Analysis by G Elliott Morris of FiveThirtyEight


Who’s dishing out for advertisements?

One challenger to Trump has surged ahead — in ad buys, at least. Scott announced an $8 million ad buy this month. The bulk of that, $6.6 million, will go toward TV advertisements in early primary states Iowa and New Hampshire, according to the Washington Post. That’s on top of the $40 million ad buy planned by a super PAC supporting Scott that was announced last month.

Trump and DeSantis, the two front-runners, had dominated in early ad spending. But challengers like Scott have stepped up as they’ve tried to qualify for debates and raise name recognition in early voting states. Super PACs supporting Haley and Burgum have also increased spending recently. Stand for America Fund, Inc., which is aligned with Haley, spent $2.3 million on ads so far in August, while Best of America, which backs Burgum, has spent $2.1 million, according to reporting from NBC News.

Meanwhile, Trump-supporting PACs have spent millions on the former president’s legal fees as the number of indictments filed against him has risen to four. That will leave less money for spending on ads going forward, but Trump remains the top campaign fundraiser.

-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight