In the front-runner's absence, many of us here at FiveThirtyEight suspected (in part because of some leaked debate memos) that the former president would loom large over the proceedings, with candidates taking shots at him whenever possible. That hasn't really happened tonight, though! What do you make of it?

-Analysis by Maya Sweedler of FiveThirtyEight

Ramaswamy has been far and away the most Googled candidate during the debate tonight. He’s received three times as much search interest as DeSantis or Haley. Now, I’m not sure what that means for his chances — Google searches aren’t votes, and people might just be curious to learn more about him. But I think it does reflect that he has been the story of this debate so far. Whether that’s a good story for him or a bad story is still TBD.
-Analysis by Nathaniel Rakich of FiveThirtyEight

That’s Mostly False.

In checking previous instances when DeSantis made this same claim, PolitiFact found no evidence that critical race theory, a broad set of ideas about racism being woven into American systems, was being taught in Florida’s K-12 schools in the first place. Educators, school officials and several Florida public school districts told us that CRT has never been part of the state curriculum.

PolitiFact found a few examples of state education officials objecting to textbooks and courses they said contained CRT teaching in recent years. They show the state’s objections to prospective teaching materials, and success in preventing content it deemed to be CRT-related. But questions remain about its rationale and broad definition of the theory and other prohibited topics.
-Aaron Sharockman, PolitiFact

Asked about how he would fix America's education system, DeSantis said "we need education, not indoctrination."

The governor defended keeping schools open during the COVID-19 pandemic and argued that the lockdowns were connected to students falling behind.

He also touted his response to the culture wars, saying Florida "eliminated" critical race theory and gender ideology in K-12 schools.

-ABC News' Hannah Demissie and Will McDuffie

Recent election cycles have shown how debates can substantially alter a candidate’s trajectory. The debates won’t always do this, of course, and early primary polls remain relatively predictive of who will end up winning a party’s nomination. However, a candidate can earn a real polling bounce from a debate — or fall into a valley.

Primary polls are inherently more volatile than general election polls. In a general election, most voters already lean toward one party, so only a small part of the electorate is likely to shift its views over the course of a campaign. But in a primary, voters in one party may be open to multiple candidates because most contenders will share similar views on a number of issues. As a result, exposure to an unfamiliar candidate could prompt voters to begin considering that contender, while a strong or weak performance by a candidate they do know could make them look elsewhere.

For example, early in the 2012 cycle, Texas Gov. Rick Perry appeared to be now-Sen. Mitt Romney’s most serious opponent for the Republican nomination. But in a September 2011 debate, Perry defended a Texas policy that gave undocumented immigrants access to in-state college tuition. The backlash from the GOP base came swiftly, as Perry fell out of contention in the polls, well before a later debate in which he — oops — forgot the name of the third of three federal agencies that he aimed to dismantle as president. Four years later, former tech executive Carly Fiorina had very little support early in the 2016 Republican race, but in August 2015 she stood out in an “undercard” debate. Her polling numbers improved and she made the main stage in subsequent debates, giving her a platform that eventually led Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to make her his vice presidential pick in a last-ditch attempt to rally support against Trump in the 2016 primary.

-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight