Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


0

On education, Ramaswamy says he would eliminate the Department of Education and make families more central to their children's educational choice. Central to Ramaswamy's campaign is that several federal agencies should be eliminated, but the idea of parental choice in education has swept through conservative states this year. Four Republican-led states passed new universal voucher programs that would allow parents to take tax dollars and spend them on private schools, including religious schools, or homeschool their children. More states have pushed for parental bills of rights that allow students' parents to have more of a say, and object to more, curricula.
-Analysis by Monica Potts of FiveThirtyEight


According to a Ipsos/Reuters poll from July, 77 percent of Republicans say that transgender athletes should not be able to participate in children’s sports at the elementary/high school level. Just 18 percent say they should, and 6 percent are not sure.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Haley gets cheers when striking back at Ramaswamy on Israel

Ramaswamy and Haley traded shots on his Israel and Russia-Ukraine views, with Ramaswamy interrupting Haley and claiming she has been saying misleading things about his proposals on Israel. Ramaswamy has called for winding down aid to Israel after integrating the country more into the region.

"I wish you well on your future career on the boards of Lockheed and Raytheon,” Ramaswamy quipped, referring to the aerospace and defense companies.

Haley struck back: "You have no foreign policy experience and it shows," she said -- and was met with cheers and applause from the audience.

-ABC News’ Abby Cruz


Trump, in Tucker Carlson interview, says other GOP candidates shouldn't be running

Trump wasted no time attacking other Republican candidates during his pre-taped interview with former Fox News host Carlson.

"I'm saying, do I sit there for an hour or two hours, whatever it's going to be and get harassed by people that shouldn't even be running for president?" Trump said.

The 46-minute interview -- released on Carlson's X account as the GOP debate got underway -- is being seen among the campaigns as an attempt to counter-program the first debate among 2024 Republican presidential candidates on Fox News.

Read more about the interview here.

-ABC News' Lalee Ibssa , Soo Rin Kim and Meredith Deliso


Why debates can move the polls

Recent election cycles have shown how debates can substantially alter a candidate’s trajectory. The debates won’t always do this, of course, and early primary polls remain relatively predictive of who will end up winning a party’s nomination. However, a candidate can earn a real polling bounce from a debate — or fall into a valley.

Primary polls are inherently more volatile than general election polls. In a general election, most voters already lean toward one party, so only a small part of the electorate is likely to shift its views over the course of a campaign. But in a primary, voters in one party may be open to multiple candidates because most contenders will share similar views on a number of issues. As a result, exposure to an unfamiliar candidate could prompt voters to begin considering that contender, while a strong or weak performance by a candidate they do know could make them look elsewhere.

For example, early in the 2012 cycle, Texas Gov. Rick Perry appeared to be now-Sen. Mitt Romney’s most serious opponent for the Republican nomination. But in a September 2011 debate, Perry defended a Texas policy that gave undocumented immigrants access to in-state college tuition. The backlash from the GOP base came swiftly, as Perry fell out of contention in the polls, well before a later debate in which he — oops — forgot the name of the third of three federal agencies that he aimed to dismantle as president. Four years later, former tech executive Carly Fiorina had very little support early in the 2016 Republican race, but in August 2015 she stood out in an “undercard” debate. Her polling numbers improved and she made the main stage in subsequent debates, giving her a platform that eventually led Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to make her his vice presidential pick in a last-ditch attempt to rally support against Trump in the 2016 primary.

-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight