Republican debate highlights and analysis: Fiery faceoff on Trump, Ukraine and more

The 2024 hopefuls took the stage in Milwaukee on Wednesday night, without Trump.

The first Republican debate of the 2024 presidential primary was held in Milwaukee on Wednesday night.

Eight candidates qualified for a spot on the stage: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum, former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, former U.N. Ambassador Nikki Haley, former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson, former Vice President Mike Pence, entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and South Carolina Sen. Tim Scott.

Missing from the event was the primary's early front-runner: former President Donald Trump, who declined to participate and instead released a pre-recorded interview with Tucker Carlson.

ABC News and FiveThirtyEight live-blogged every major moment and highlight from the debate, aired on Fox News, with FiveThirtyEight providing analysis and a closer look at the polling and data behind the politicians. PolitiFact made real-time fact checks of key statements.


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According to a July poll from NewsNation, 72 percent of Republican voters believe the criminal justice system isn’t tough enough on crime. That’s compared to 58 percent of voters overall, and just 42 percent of Democrats.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Pence pressed on rising crime during the pandemic

Pence was pressed on crime in some of the nation's major cities -- with rates that spiked parallel with the COVID-19 pandemic, though they have since dropped in some areas -- and whether the Trump administration's COVID-19 policies were in part to blame.

Pence deflected, saying, "The Democrats have been talking about defunding the police for the last five years. And we ought to be funding law enforcement, particularly in our major cities, at unprecedented levels."

-ABC News' Tal Axelrod


Sen. Scott possibly mishears question when asked if he's bought and paid for — responds, "absolutely"

Scott was asked if he's bought and paid for after Ramaswamy said he's the only candidate on stage who isn't bought and paid for. Possibly mishearing the question, he responded, "Absolutely." The moderators repeated it and he responded, "Absolutely not."

Then Scott proceeded to chide the rest of the stage for attacking one another.

"Here is what the American people deserve. It's a debate about the issues that affect their lives. Going back and forth and being childish is not helpful to the American people to decide on the next leader of our country,” Scott said.

-ABC News’ Gabriella Abdul-Hakim


Scott and Pence have both mentioned a federal 15-week abortion ban. A majority of Republican primary voters say they support a such a ban, according to a July survey from The New York Times/Siena College. Fifty-eight percent of Republicans said they support a 15-week ban, including 41 percent who say they strongly support such a ban. Thirty-six percent oppose it and 6 percent are unsure.
-Analysis by FiveThirtyEight


Why debates can move the polls

Recent election cycles have shown how debates can substantially alter a candidate’s trajectory. The debates won’t always do this, of course, and early primary polls remain relatively predictive of who will end up winning a party’s nomination. However, a candidate can earn a real polling bounce from a debate — or fall into a valley.

Primary polls are inherently more volatile than general election polls. In a general election, most voters already lean toward one party, so only a small part of the electorate is likely to shift its views over the course of a campaign. But in a primary, voters in one party may be open to multiple candidates because most contenders will share similar views on a number of issues. As a result, exposure to an unfamiliar candidate could prompt voters to begin considering that contender, while a strong or weak performance by a candidate they do know could make them look elsewhere.

For example, early in the 2012 cycle, Texas Gov. Rick Perry appeared to be now-Sen. Mitt Romney’s most serious opponent for the Republican nomination. But in a September 2011 debate, Perry defended a Texas policy that gave undocumented immigrants access to in-state college tuition. The backlash from the GOP base came swiftly, as Perry fell out of contention in the polls, well before a later debate in which he — oops — forgot the name of the third of three federal agencies that he aimed to dismantle as president. Four years later, former tech executive Carly Fiorina had very little support early in the 2016 Republican race, but in August 2015 she stood out in an “undercard” debate. Her polling numbers improved and she made the main stage in subsequent debates, giving her a platform that eventually led Texas Sen. Ted Cruz to make her his vice presidential pick in a last-ditch attempt to rally support against Trump in the 2016 primary.

-Analysis by Geoffrey Skelley of FiveThirtyEight