Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.


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Some of the guests who will attend Biden's speech

Often, those invited to a president's State of the Union address represent the topics he is expected to focus on during his remarks.

First lady Jill Biden's office announced Tuesday morning who will join her in her viewing box at her husband's speech later in the day.

She won't be the only one bringing guests. Here's a look at some of the notable names:

Second gentleman Doug Emhoff will join Jill Biden with his guest, Holocaust survivor Ruth Cohen of Rockville, Maryland.

The Congressional Black Caucus initially invited the family of Tyre Nichols -- the Memphis, Tennessee, man who died after being attacked by police last month -- and the White House announced that Nichols' mother, RowVaughn Wells, and stepfather, Rodney Wells, will sit in the first lady's box.

Also in the first lady's box will be Brandon Tsay of San Marino, California, who disarmed the shooter in the Monterey Park, California, shooting; former Speaker Nancy Pelosi's husband, Paul Pelosi, who was attacked by an intruder last fall; U2's Bono for his work fighting HIV/AIDS and extreme poverty; and Oksana Markarova, Ukraine's ambassador to the U.S.

House Speaker McCarthy says he invited former NBA player Enes Freedom as his guest.

Freedom, an outspoken critic of China's reported abuse of Muslim minorities in Xinjiang, has met with House GOP several times this year. He wrote in a tweet that he was "deeply honored and humbled to attend the State of the Union address" and appreciates McCarthy's "friendship, leadership and support."

-ABC News' Ben Gittleson and Lauren Peller


Biden to say America's democracy is 'bruised' but remains 'unbroken'

In his speech tonight, President Biden will speak about the state of American democracy as he addresses Congress and the nation.

"The story of America is a story of progress and resilience … We are the only country that has emerged from every crisis stronger than when we entered it. That is what we are doing again," Biden is expected to say, according to excerpts of his prepared speech released by the White House, as has become a tradition.

Biden will specifically tout his administration's response to the economic crisis, COVID-19 and attacks on democracy.

"Two years ago our economy was reeling," he's expected to say in the address. "As I stand here tonight, we have created a record 12 million new jobs -- more jobs created in two years than any president has ever created in four years. Two years ago, COVID had shut down our businesses, closed our schools, and robbed us of so much. Today, COVID no longer controls our lives."

"And two years ago, our democracy faced its greatest threat since the Civil War. Today, though bruised, our democracy remains unbowed and unbroken."


Schumer and Jeffries: Expect Biden to draw contrasts with GOP

Ahead of the president's State of the Union address, Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer and House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries said that Biden should not only tout what he's done for the American people but also draw a contrast with the GOP alternative during his later remarks.

While meeting with a small group of reporters, the Brooklyn Democrats noted that even as Biden faces headwinds in the polls, he would do well in highlighting the legislative wins their party have secured for average Americans while drawing a clear contrast between Democrats who they said are "unified with a sense of purpose" and what they called "the chaos and dysfunction and extremism" in the Republican Party.

When asked by ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott about a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll showing 41% of Americans believe they are not as well off since Biden took office, Schumer argued Democrats don't need a reset.

"You know, it's not going to be you know, a huge campaign rally speech," Schumer said, before pushing back on poll numbers. "I don't think we need a reset. Most of it hasn't been implemented a lot of it hasn't even had the regulations implemented at the executive level yet. You know, if it's a year from now, maybe that's a valid argument but I don't think it will be that way a year from now."

– ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott


Potential debt ceiling standoff looms large

When Biden delivers his State of the Union address, it will be the first with new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy sitting over his shoulder.

Shaping up to be the first major obstacle that McCarthy and Biden must work together to overcome is how Congress should go about raising the federal borrowing limit, which the Treasury Department has indicated will need to be done as soon as June to make sure none of the federal government's bills go unpaid.

The conflict, along with the potentially calamitous economic consequences of a debt default, will no doubt color some of Biden's remarks as he looks to reassure the 53% of Americans who are "very" concerned about that outcome, according to a new ABC News/Washington Post poll.

Biden and McCarthy say they agree that the nation cannot default on its debt, but with the Treasury already using "extraordinary measures" to keep the nation out of the red, that's about all they agree on.

The speaker looked to preempt Biden's State of the Union speech in remarks Monday night in which he outlined what he saw as the major risks the nation faces by failing to cut spending. McCarthy described the $31.4 trillion national debt as the "greatest threat to our future."

The Biden administration, meanwhile, maintains that the debt limit must be raised without any political negotiation or bargaining, as has been done under both parties over many years.

-ABC News' Allison Pecorin


Biden seems to be trying to remind voters of his accomplishments

So far in his speech, Biden has been touting bills passed under his watch, such as the Inflation Reduction Act and the bipartisan infrastructure bill. He may feel he needs to reintroduce the country to them because Americans largely don’t think he’s gotten much done during his administration. According to a recent ABC News/Washington Post poll, only 36% of Americans believe he has accomplished a great deal or a good amount, and 62% believe he has accomplished only a little or nothing.

Biden is likely also betting that that public will like what they hear about his accomplishments, and he might be right: Data for Progress recently found that, after Americans were read a short description of the Inflation Reduction Act, 68% of likely voters said they supported it.

-FiveThirtyEight’s Nathaniel Rakich