Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.


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Biden's SOTU pitch echoes Reagan's 'stay the course'

In the post-World War II era, only three presidents have had a lower approval rating at this point in their presidency than Biden.

Two of those presidents -- Jimmy Carter and Donald Trump -- went on to lose reelection.

The third was Ronald Reagan. In 1983, he was unpopular and facing critics who said he was too old. But the next year, Reagan won reelection in the biggest landslide in the history of modern American politics, winning every state except for Minnesota, home of his Democratic opponent, Walter Mondale.

It’s no accident that Biden is echoing Reagan’s message from 40 years ago. Back then, the country was just starting to recover from high inflation and high interest rates. Reagan acknowledged the pain in his own State of the Union address and, as he launched his reelection bid, his campaign buttons urged the country to “STAY THE COURSE."

Biden’s message on Tuesday? “Finish the job.”

-ABC News Chief Washington Correspondent Jonathan Karl


Pelosi tells ABC Biden's message will be 'how we go forward'

As she made her way to the House chamber, Rep. Nancy Pelosi told ABC News that she's "thrilled" to hear what Biden has to say to Congress.

"I'm so excited about tonight. The president will talk about what he has accomplished. It'll be a message of progress and hope about how we go forward and what more needs to be done and what the path is to that," Pelosi said.

The California Democrat, who has witnessed several presidents -- Biden included -- deliver State of the Union addresses from the dais as House speaker, insisted that there was much for Biden to "brag about."

"I'm really quite thrilled," she continued. "I can't remember being so thrilled on the State of the Union, because there's so much for him to brag about, but also that he knows needs to be done."

-ABC News' Will Steakin


Congress probably won’t do most of the things Biden is requesting

Biden is going to call on Congress to do a lot in his speech -- he’ll talk about the issues he thinks are ripe for action and the policies he wants Congress to prioritize. But lawmakers probably won’t follow through on most of them.

According to an analysis of legislation passed after every State of the Union address since 1965, conducted by political scientists Donna Hoffman and Allison Howard, Congress only fully enacted 24.3% of a president’s requests, on average, and partially enacted another 13.8%.

In some years -- like 2016 and 2020 -- none of the requests were acted on. So even if Biden makes big, bold proposals for Congress, don’t expect most of them to become reality.

-FiveThirtyEight’s Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux


In GOP response, Sarah Huckabee Sanders will highlight Democratic 'failures'

Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders plans to use the Republicans' official State of the Union rebuttal to tear into President Joe Biden and the Democrats, focusing heavily on culture war issues while highlighting where she says the economy has failed.

According to excerpts of her speech shared by her office, Sanders, the country's youngest governor and a White House press secretary under President Donald Trump, will pan Democrats as high taxers who "[light] your hard-earned money on fire." But most of the highlights previewed by her office focused on labeling the Democratic Party as a "woke" group in almost religious terms.

"You get crushed with high gas prices, empty grocery shelves and our children are taught to hate one another on account of their race, but not to love one another or our great country. ... And while you reap the consequences of their failures, the Biden administration seems more interested in woke fantasies than the hard reality Americans face every day," she will say. "Most Americans simply want to live their lives in freedom and peace, but we are under attack in a left-wing culture war we didn’t start and never wanted to fight."

"Every day, we are told that we must partake in their rituals, salute their flags, and worship their false idols … all while big government colludes with Big Tech to strip away the most American thing there is -- your freedom of speech."

Republicans like Trump and others are already preparing to challenge Biden ahead of his expected reelection bid, with party leaders divided over the best approach. Sanders, Trump and others have embraced social issues, while others have focused on inflation and government spending.


Inside House chamber ahead of Biden's SOTU address

Members began steadily streaming into the House chamber on Tuesday with Vice President Kamala Harris around 8:30 p.m. ET, including some former lawmakers who are also using floor privileges.

The realities of a divided government are on full display -- little conversation between Democrats and Republicans across the aisle on the House floor.

The vice president has been making small talk with House Speaker McCarthy -- overheard on the mics saying it's a "packed house."

Former Rep. Rodney Davis, R-Ill., was seen joking to Rep. Joe Wilson, R-S.C.-- infamous for shouting "you lie!" at former President Barack Obama during a joint address of Congress -- to "sit down, sit down Joe."

Former Department of Housing and Urban Development Secretary Ben Carson is at the speech as one of the only former Trump officials spotted thus far.

Newly independent Arizona Sen. Kyrsten Sinema made her way in, standing next to GOP Utah Sen. Mitt Romney and was then speaking with Republican Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell.

For some, the most coveted seats appear to be along the aisle. That's where embattled Rep. George Santos chose to sit, in position to shake the president's hand as he enters and exits the chamber. Santos still has time to switch seats.

Some of the president's fiercest critics are also along the aisle: Republican Reps. Matt Gaetz and Lauren Boebert.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene was carrying around a white balloon through the halls of Congress for much of the day to mock the administration's handling of the suspected Chinese spy balloon -- but decided to not bring it into the chamber.

Speaker McCarthy's guest, Enes Freedom, New York City Mayor Eric Adams, Cabinet secretaries Pete Buttigieg and Jennifer Granholm and pollster Frank Luntz have also filed into the room.

-ABC News Senior Congressional Correspondent Rachel Scott, Katherine Faulders and John Parkinson