Addressing his first divided Congress, Biden says 'the soul of this nation is strong'

Republicans interjected during his speech and pushed back in their own.

President Joe Biden on Tuesday night delivered his second State of the Union address in a pivotal moment as he laid out not only his accomplishments and agenda but made the case for his leadership ahead of an expected announcement on running for reelection.

Unlike his first two years in office, Republicans now control the House of Representatives and Speaker Kevin McCarthy, sitting behind the president for the first time, has threatened to block Biden's agenda.

Partners at FiveThirtyEight provided analysis in the blog below before, during and after Biden's speech.


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Labor Secretary Marty Walsh is this year’s 'designated survivor'

Labor Secretary Marty Walsh has been dubbed the “designated survivor” for Biden’s second State of the Union address, according to a White House official.

The designated survivor is the Cabinet member chosen to stay behind in an undisclosed location in case disaster strikes as the president, vice president, top officials and members of Congress gather at the Capitol.

Walsh is 11th in the presidential line of succession and is set to soon leave the administration for a position with the NHL players' association, ABC News has confirmed.

-with ABC News' Luke Barr, Justin Gomez and MaryAlice Parks


Biden says union is in 'great shape, getting better'

Biden told ABC News' Ben Gittleson that he was feeling "good" as he departed the White House on Tuesday night for his second State of the Union address.

Asked what he feels is the state of the union, Biden responded: "Great shape, getting better."

The president entered his motorcade just before 8:30 p.m. ET to travel to the Capitol.


The economy, health care and defending against terrorism are among Americans’ top issues

Biden will set the agenda in Tuesday's speech -- but what do Americans want the president and Congress to address? Just like last year, the economy and health care costs are Americans' top priorities, according to a recent survey by the Pew Research Center. The poll found that 75% of Americans think strengthening the economy should be a top priority for Biden and Congress this year, while 60% said that reducing health care costs should be a top priority.

One thing has changed, though -- when Biden took the podium for his State of the Union address in 2022, 60% of Americans said that dealing with the COVID-19 outbreak should be a top priority. This year, only 26% named the virus as one of their top issues. Instead, priorities like defending against terrorism, reducing the influence of money in politics and making Medicare financially sound took precedence.

Republicans' and Democrats' perspectives on what the president and Congress should address look quite different. Democrats were more likely than Republicans to say they want the government to prioritize reducing health care costs, protect the environment and deal with the problems of poor people, while Republicans were more likely than Democrats to want Biden and Congress to focus on reducing the budget deficit, reducing crime and dealing with immigration.

-FiveThirtyEight's Amelia Thomson-DeVeaux


Ciscomani, giving Republicans' Spanish rebuttal, will say: 'Our best days lie ahead'

First-term Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani of Arizona will deliver the GOP's State of the Union rebuttal on Tuesday -- in Spanish. Excerpts from his planned remarks show that he will lay out an optimistic message for the future of the country as a member of the new House majority.

"The state of our union is strong because our people are strong. We can overcome any obstacle. Our best days lie ahead," Ciscomani will say, contending that President Biden and his administration continue to "push policies that hurt our families."

The first-generation American will also nod to the fact that his own rise was due to the "American Dream." After House Speaker Kevin McCarthy announced that Ciscomani would be delivering remarks, the lawmaker said his message will be "simple and straightforward," focused on securing the southern border and strengthening the economy.

"That's why it's important to keep fighting for our country. I'm fighting for our country. And my Republican colleagues and I are committed to protect and strengthen the American Dream for all," he plans to say in his response speech.

Those remarks contrast with excerpts released from the other official Republican State of the Union rebuttal, set to be delivered by Arkansas Gov. Sarah Huckabee Sanders, who will blast Democrats on social issues: "Every day, we are told that we must partake in their rituals, salute their flags and worship their false idols."


SOTU is a soft-launch for Biden 2024

Biden may still be some ways from formally declaring his intentions about a 2024 reelection campaign, but his message on Tuesday -- he wants to "finish the job" -- certainly hints at another bid.

Yet this comes in the face of polls that have shown an unusually high percentage of Americans don't want him to run again -- including Democrats. In a new ABC News/Washington Post survey, 58% of Democrats said they wanted the party to nominate someone other than Biden, a finding echoed by a recent AP/NORC survey, too. Now, it's not unheard of for the public to prefer that a president not run again. For instance, majorities told pollsters at different points in 1982 and 1983 that they didn't want Ronald Reagan, another older president, to run again. But in those polls, a majority of Republicans still wanted four more years of Reagan, in contrast to what Democrats are saying in polls about Biden.

However, none of this means Biden will be an underdog in the 2024 Democratic primary. Fact is, elected presidents rarely face serious opposition for renomination. Importantly, Biden has a solid approval rating among Democrats -- around 80% for better in most polls -- so while many Democrats express skepticism toward another Biden run, most also don't mind how he's governing the country. This complicates any would-be challenger justifying a campaign against Biden.

Moreover, the potential Democratic candidates polling best against Biden are in his administration -- Vice President Kamala Harris and Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg -- making them unlikely to run against him. Although we can't discount someone from the left taking on Biden, the leftward threat posed by Vermont independent Sen. Bernie Sanders faded when he encouraged the party to coalesce around Biden ahead of Super Tuesday in 2020 -- before Biden was the clear leader of his party. Barring a major collapse in Biden's standing, then, a serious primary challenge appears unlikely.

-FiveThirtyEight's Geoffrey Skelley