The Note: As The Donald Doubles Down, Favorability Doubles Up
— -- NOTABLES
--POSITIVE VIEWS OF DONALD TRUMP HAVE DOUBLED SINCE HIS CONTROVERSIAL COMMENTS ON IMMIGRATION, although many more Americans still dislike rather than like him, now by nearly a 2-1 margin - and his negatives have soared among Hispanics, a sought-after group in national politics. Thirty-three percent of Americans see Trump favorably; that's doubled from 16 percent in a pre-candidacy ABC News/Washington Post poll in late May. Sixty-one percent see him unfavorably, down from 71 percent but still leaving him deeply under water in popularity overall, according to ABC's GREG HOLYK. http://abcn.ws/1I0vuyJ
--TRUMP'S NOT ALONE WITH POPULARITY CHALLENGES: While Republican fundraising leader Jeb Bush has gained some ground, just 38 percent of Americans see him favorably - a scant 5 points more than Trump's rating - while 47 percent rate Bush unfavorably. On the Democratic side, Hillary Clinton's favorability rating has improved to a majority after a sustained fall from her heights as secretary of state. The much less well-known Bernie Sanders, while drawing crowds on the campaign trail, gets a split decision, 27-28 percent. Trump's positive ratings are up very sharply among Republicans and strong conservatives, by 34 and 30 points, to 57 and 55 percent, respectively. He's also gained 26 points among seniors and 24 points among whites, to 38 and 42 percent in this poll, produced for ABC by Langer Research Associates. http://abcn.ws/1I0vuyJ
--FIFTY-TWO PERCENT SEE CLINTON FAVORABLY, up 7 points from late May, while 45 percent see her negatively - putting her popularity back above water, if not broadly so. The result reverses a 22-point drop in favorability from her peak in January 2013. Clinton's improved the most since May among minorities, including Hispanics (up 17 points) and blacks (+12 points), as well as a mix of other groups, including Northeasterners (+16), "somewhat" conservatives (+14) and young adults (+12). http://abcn.ws/1I0vuyJ
TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's CHRIS GOOD: Scott Walker has appeared in Charleston, S.C. at the Low Country Harley-Davidson, an event that began at 7:30 a.m. ET. Later, he'll appear in Lexington at Hudson's Smokehouse BBQ at 10:45 am ET and Mutt's BBQ in Mauldin at 1:45 pm ET. He'll then travel to Atlanta, where he'll appear at the Buckhead Club at 6:30 pm ET. Chris Christie will be in Annapolis for a "special announcement event" at the Double T Diner at 10 am ET. Rick Santorum will be in Iowa, where he'll attend an employee forum at Jackson Manufacturing in Maquoketa at 2 pm ET. Later, he'll tour the Clinton County Fair in DeWitt at 4 pm ET, attend a dinner roundtable at McOtto's Family Restaurant in Anamosa at 6:30 pm ET and another town-hall at Tipton Family Restaurant in Tipton at 8:30 pm ET. Lindsey Graham will be in New Hampshire, where he'll speak at City Hall on "protecting the early primary state" at 2:30 pm ET.
WHAT WE'RE READING
"PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION ALREADY FUELED BY $377 MILLION," by the Associated Press's Julie Bykowicz. "The 2016 presidential contest is barely underway, and already donors have poured some $377 million into it, an Associated Press review shows. The first peek behind the fundraising curtain comes by midnight Wednesday, when most candidates must file their initial reports to the Federal Election Commission. Those documents will cover financial activity between April 1 and June 30 and will list the names of everyone who gave at least $200. The maximum contribution for the primary is $2,700. The FEC reports also will show how candidates are spending their money - on consultants, office space, advertising, polling and more." http://bit.ly/1I2MN0k
THE BUZZ
WHY TAYLOR SWIFT MANIA SEIZED CAPITOL HILL. For a few hours yesterday, things on Capitol Hill ground to a standstill - not because of a legislative deadlock or a government shutdown - but because of international pop sensation Taylor Swift, ABC's CONOR FINNEGAN reports. Blame the interns. The Grammy-award winning artist performed at the Washington's Nationals Park Monday night to a crowd that included several senators. Many suspected that Swift would visit Capitol Hill the next day. There was pleading by staffers and offers of a tour. Even House members made pitches, competing to claim Swift as "mine." It's unclear where they started, but Don Stewart, spokesman for Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell, fanned the flames. Even Hillary Clinton couldn't escape the frenzy. The Democratic presidential candidate was visiting with Democrats on the Hill, and after her brief statement on the Iran deal, one reporter shouted after her, "Are you going to the Taylor Swift concert?" http://abcn.ws/1K5AW3X
JEB BUSH ON DONALD TRUMP, IRAN AND HIS LAST NAME. At Jeb Bush's campaign event at Barley's Pub in Council Bluffs, Iowa, yesterday the former Florida governor and Republican presidential contender answered questions on Donald Trump and the Iran deal, among other topics, ABC's JOSH HASKELL.
--ON TRUMP: "I do think that from a Republican Party perspective, we have to be big and bold, not divisive and angry. We have to be hopeful and optimistic, not deeply pessimistic. We're never going to win if we're a grievance party. We'll win if we offer something that gives people hope that their lives are going to get better. Mr. Trump has every right to have every belief he has if he's going to run, that's fine. But I don't want to be associated with the kind of Vitriol that's he's spewing out these days."
--ON IRAN: "Based on what I know of the agreement, we should move towards the aberration of it......This is a hugely important agreement for US foreign policy. It appears to me that that the next President will have to deal with this in very substantive ways as it has to do with verification, and may other aspects of the agreement. All of this is done without any consideration for their missile launch capabilities that are improved, with their efforts to promote through state research, terrorism in the region. I think it's the wrong approach and a bad outcome."
HILLARY CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT IRAN DEAL. In a brief media appearance on Capitol Hill yesterday, Hillary Clinton congratulated President Obama on the Iran deal while sounding cautious about it, ABC's CHRIS GOOD reports. "This does put a lid on the nuclear program, but we still have a lot of concerns about the bad behavior and the actions by Iran," she said, mentioning its sponsorship of terrorist groups and its imprisonment of Americans. Of Obama, she said "I applaud him," while noting that "there will be a number of issues that have to be addressed," first enforcement and second Iran's other activities. Potentially alluding to new international sanctions, Clinton said the U.S. should "immediately, upon completion of this agreement and its rigorous enforcement, look to see how we build a coalition to try to prevent and undermine Iran's bad behaviors in other arenas."
IN THE NOTE'S INBOX
HUCKABEE'S FUNDRAISING HAUL. A senior adviser to the Huckabee presidential campaign gives The Note a sneak peek at fundraising numbers: "Gov. Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign committee and affiliated committees have raised nearly $8 million to date. The nearly $8 million raised to date is well over three times as much as Gov. Huckabee raised in the first three quarters COMBINED of his 2008 campaign, when Huckabee was outspent 10:1 and won the Iowa caucuses and seven other states. The campaign committee raised $2 million, which includes only primary election money, and affiliated committees have raised nearly $6 million to date, for a total of nearly $8 million. We raised money from individuals in all 50 states. Our average contribution is $101."
WHO'S TWEETING?
@DavidMDrucker: Why are Repubs confidant #IranDeal helps them in 2016? Convinced Iran will cheat & foment terror: http://washex.am/1K5IeVa
@jestei: On Iran deal @peterbakernyt as usual steps away from press release blah blah blah to bring clarity sense of history, http://nyti.ms/1V1YolU
@jpaceDC: Obama advisers say he is sensitive to perception he was desperate for a deal and would never walk away from talks http://apne.ws/1K75T7L
@DMRegister: .@BobbyJindal, at 45, would be youngest of 2016 presidential hopefuls when sworn in. Who would be oldest? http://dmreg.co/1K7lRvU #IAcaucus
@CraigCaplan: Day after Hillary Clinton meets with House Democrats, VP Biden heads to Capitol Hill to speak with the caucus.Iran deal is topic number one.