The Note: Indiana Primary Primer

— -- NOTABLES

--5 STORYLINES TO WATCH IN INDIANA: Indiana residents are headed to the polls to cast their ballots in what has become one of their most important primaries this election season. "This may be the first time ever that the Indiana primary has played a significant role in the nomination process," said David Campbell, the chair of the political science department at the University of Notre Dame. Here are five of the most interesting storylines to watch on primary day, courtesy of ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY: http://abcn.ws/1Uv2TGv

--CRUZ SAYS HE STILL HAS A PATH TO THE NOMINATION IF HE LOSES TONIGHT: Ted Cruz said yesterday he will “absolutely” have a path to victory even if he loses today’s contest in Indiana. “We intend to do absolutely everything possible to win tomorrow. It’s gonna be up to the people of Indiana,” Cruz told ABC’s JESSICA HOPPER while campaigning in Osceola, Indiana. “The polls have been all over the place. There has literally been a 30-point swing depending on what poll you are looking at. We are neck-and-neck right now in the state of Indiana.” http://abcn.ws/1SGEUD3

--TRUMP CALLS INDIANA TOWN 'IMPORTANTVILLE' IN FINAL PUSH: Last night, Donald Trump sought to let his final crowd in the state know how important their votes are in this election, ABC’s CANDACE SMITH reports. “Now Indiana is becoming very important .. .you folks belong where you belong; it's called Importantville right? I love it,” Trump happily said. Trump's campaign closed out the Hoosier State as it has in so many states, sidestepping the latest controversial comment, mired in a barrage of omnidirectional attacks, fending off flimsy alliances and, in spite of it all -- or perhaps because of it all -- remaining supremely confident. In his last address to the people of Indiana, Trump’s remarks were almost a "best of" compilation: He brought up rival Ted Cruz’s birther status, decried the media, hit "low-energy” Jeb Bush and reaffirmed his plans to build a wall. http://abcn.ws/1X5Xzdf

--ANALYSIS -- ABC’s RICK KLEIN: In Indiana, Ted Cruz got the stakes he wanted, the matchup he craved, the air cover he needed, the teammate he chose, and even – thanks to an accommodating Donald Trump supporter on Monday – the debate he practically begged for. If he loses Indiana, though, he won’t have been giving the voters what they wanted. That, at its most fundamental level, is what makes the Trump train roll on: voters are voting for him, not against the other candidates, unless you define his rivals broadly as the same establishment Trump presents himself as a threat to. Trump is winning by winning. The question soon enough for Cruz is whether he seems himself as winning by losing. If his goal is to elect a Republican president in 2016, the math makes that answer easy enough, and the Republican Party coalesces behind its all-but-certain nominee. If Cruz’s goal is to elect a particular Republican president in 2020 or beyond, the clear strategy is to stick around to the end. But he won’t get another Indiana – a moment where he can plausibly claim that a state’s voting could determine the results.

YESTERDAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and PAOLA CHAVEZ

IN WEST VIRGINIA, CLINTON SAYS SHE'S 'SORRY' ABOUT REACTION TO COAL COMMENTS. Democratic presidential candidate Hillary Clinton kicked off a two-day tour of West Virginia, Ohio and Kentucky yesterday by saying she was "sad" and "sorry" about the reaction to her saying in a CNN town hall in March, “we’re going to put a lot of coal miners and coal companies out of business,” ABC’s MERIDITH MCGRAW reports. At a campaign event in Williamson, West Virginia, on Monday evening, Bo Copley, who identified himself as an out-of-work coal miner, poignantly asked Clinton "how you can say you’re going to put a lot of coal miners out of -- out of jobs and then come in here and tell us how you’re going to be our friend. "Because those people out there don’t see you as a friend," Copley said, referring to protesters who had gathered outside the Williamson Health and Wellness Center. “What I said was totally out of context from what I meant,” Clinton told Copley. She called her comment at the CNN town hall a “misstatement.” “What I was saying is that, the way things are going now, we will continue to lose jobs,” she said. “That’s what I meant to say.” She added, “I do feel a little bit sad and sorry that I gave folks the reason or the excuse to be so upset with me because that is not what I intended at all.” http://abcn.ws/1rPXX4i

--THE BIG PICTURE: The exchange was another sign that the Clinton name -- once popular in coal country -- is now a tough sell for voters whose local economies have been devastated by closing coal mines. Over the weekend, Clinton's most important campaign surrogate -- husband and former President Bill Clinton -- made his way to Logan, West Virginia, a town of less than 2,000 people nestled along the Guyandotte River, where residents didn’t exactly roll out the red carpet. A local public relations professional, Dave Allen, sent an email to a representative in West Virginia Sen. Joe Manchin’s office ahead of the scheduled event asking that the Clintons not campaign on city property. “Bill and Hillary Clinton are simply not welcome in our town,” the email message said. “Mrs. Clinton’s anti-coal messages are the last thing our suffering town needs at this point.” Allen, who said he sent the message on behalf of the City of Logan, explained to ABC News that the “intention was not to stop the event. They just wanted to send a message.” http://abcn.ws/1rPXX4i

TRUMP GAINS GROUND IN UNBOUND DELEGATE RACE. After his decisive win last week in Pennsylvania, Donald Trump is now beating Sen. Ted Cruz nearly two-to-one among unbound delegates who say they will support him on the first ballot, according to an analysis by ABC News. ABC’S JOHN KRUZEL reports, the GOP front-runner is also showing signs of an increasingly organized delegate strategy. Trump now leads Cruz 43-22 among delegates who are free to vote for any candidate on the first ballot of the Republican convention this July, according to ABC News data. http://abcn.ws/1W2EHfI

BEHIND SANDERS’ ‘VERY STEEP’ PATH TO CONTESTED CONVENTION. Sen. Bernie Sanders insists that the Democratic convention will be a "contested contest," though acknowledging it would be tough for him to get there. Indeed, the Vermont senator would need to win 65 percent of the remaining pledged delegates in order to take the lead over Hillary Clinton in pledged delegates, according to an ABC News analysis of the delegate count. ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY and RYAN STRUYK write, by contrast, Clinton needs 35 percent to keep her lead. "What our polling suggests is it is going to be a very steep climb," Sanders said Sunday night on the campaign trail, referring to the 65 percent he would need. http://abcn.ws/1Ut7vNx

CRUZ DEBATES TRUMP SUPPORTERS AS THEY SHOUT AT HIM IN INDIANA. Supporters of Republican presidential front-runner Donald Trump shouted in his rival Sen. Ted Cruz’s face as he squared off with them on an Indiana street for more than seven minutes, just a day before Indiana’s do-or-die GOP primary. Cruz was finishing up a campaign stop at a restaurant alongside a river in a small town northeast of Indianapolis when he heard half a dozen men chanting “Lyin’ Ted” and other slogans across the street. ABC’s BEN GITTLESON has more. http://abcn.ws/1Z40Ech

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

CARLY FIORINA FALLS FROM STAGE AT CRUZ EVENT. Carly Fiorina took a rather graceful fall from the stage after introducing the Cruz family on Sunday. “Let me welcome, your next first family. Heidi Cruz, your next first lady, Caroline and Catherine and the next president of the United States, Ted Cruz,” Fiorina told a crowd of supporters in Lafayette, Indiana, before taking a tumble. The former Hewlett-Packard CEO and running mate of Ted Cruz appeared to be uninjured as she steadied herself after tripping. http://abcn.ws/1pX54Ge

WHO’S TWEETING?

@tripgabriel: 'That was reported and nobody talks about it,' Trump says of dubious Enquirer story linking Cruz father to Oswald

@ethanklapper: Seeing both Judd Gregg and John Sununu on CNN this morning made me double check today was the Indiana (not New Hampshire) Primary.

@thehill: Boehner returns to the spotlight: http://hill.cm/1sOZ0Cm 

@ShaneGoldmacher: Stop Trump (and Cruz) could run out of gas and cash with an Indiana loss

@jmartNYT: Why is getting all of IN's delegates so big for Trump? Dramatically reduces Calif pressure, he may only need