The Note: Inside Clinton’s Numbers Advantage
— -- NOTABLES
--CLINTON BESTS TRUMP ON ORLANDO MASSACRE RESPONSE AND TERRORISM: Mirroring her rebound in the overall race for the White House, Clinton leads Trump by 50-39 percent in trust to handle terrorism in this poll, ABC’s GREGORY HOLYK reports. Hillary Clinton has moved ahead of Donald Trump in trust to handle terrorism, boosted by her response to the Orlando attack. This reflects Clinton’s superior marks for her response to Orlando. More think she did a better job than Trump responding to the attacks overall (by 18 points, 46-28 percent) and showed better temperament in her response (by 34 points, 59-25 percent). Looking forward, more say Clinton gave them confidence that she could handle a similar incident as president (+19 points vs. Trump, 53-34 percent). http://abcn.ws/297ldVn
--CLINTON’S LEAD AMONG NONWHITE VOTERS SURGES: Clinton's double-digit lead over Donald Trump in the latest national poll is significant, and her standing among minority voters is even more dramatic. An ABC News/Washington Post poll released Sunday has Clinton leading among nonwhite voters by the biggest margin yet: 77 percent of nonwhite voters side with the presumptive Democratic nominee, compared with 15 percent who prefer her Republican counterpart. ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY notes, in a March ABC News/Washington Post poll, Trump had a 9-point lead among white voters; that margin went up to 24 points in May but is now down to 10 points. http://abcn.ws/28YHRxv
--BUT CLINTON ACKNOWLEDGES SHE HAS ‘WORK TO DO’ ON TRUSTWORTHINESS: Despite the good numbers, Clinton yesterday acknowledged that many voters just don’t trust her, admitting, during a rare moment of self-reflection: “I have work to do on this front." "A lot of people tell pollsters they don’t trust me,” the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee said during her keynote remarks at a women’s luncheon in Chicago. "Now I don’t like hearing that. And I’ve thought a lot about what’s behind it. And, you know, you hear 25 years worth of wild accusations anyone would start to wonder. And it certainly is true, I’ve made mistakes. I don’t know anyone who hasn’t. So I understand people having questions." ABC’s LIZ KREUTZ has more. http://abcn.ws/293uUE0
--ANALYSIS -- ABC’s RICK KLEIN: It’s easy to lose the forest for the very many trees Donald Trump likes to knock down. Still, Tuesday brings one of the more interesting Donald Trump speeches of the general-election campaign. Trump’s take on trade – and, more broadly, economic disruption fostered by globalization – is critical to understanding his appeal, and the emotions that are driving the electorate this year. Keep in mind that Trump’s criticism of trade deals puts him much closer to Bernie Sanders than, say, Jeb Bush. Trade is an area of clear vulnerability for Hillary Clinton, both as she consolidates the Democratic base and seeks a broader appeal. It’s also a tender area for Trump; “Mr. Trump embodies global elites and has taken full advantage of it his entire life,” President Obama told NPR, in laughing off comparisons between Trump’s rise and the Brexit vote. But if Trump gets beyond name-calling in front of a steel industry firm in Ohio, he’ll be getting back to some of his initial campaign appeal, channeling not just the angry voter, but the voter who feels left behind.
YESTERDAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI and PAOLA CHAVEZ
WARREN UNLEASHES ON TRUMP AT CLINTON CAMPAIGN EVENT. Hillary Clinton brought a champion of the Democratic Party’s progressive wing, Elizabeth Warren, to the campaign trail in Ohio, where the Massachusetts senator slammed Donald Trump more like Clinton’s running mate than an opening act. "Now, I'm here today because I'm with her. Yes, her. We're all here today because we're with her," Warren said in her first Clinton campaign event, Monday. "And we're going to work our hearts out to make Hillary Clinton the next president of the United States. Yes. I'm ready. Are you ready for this?" ABC’s JOSH HASKELL and LIZ KREUTZ report Clinton and Warren took the stage together at Union Terminal at the Cincinnati Museum and raised their hands in the air as a team united, similar to what one would see at a party convention. http://abcn.ws/292wNSS
NOTED: WARREN BEING VETTED FOR VP. Warren is being formally vetted as a possible vice presidential pick for Hillary Clinton, according to a source familiar with the process. ABC’s CECILIA VEGA reports Warren is not the only contender being formally vetted at this point. The Massachusetts senator, considered a leader among progressives, campaigned with Clinton Monday for the first time since endorsing her earlier this month. If Clinton picks Warren as her vice president, Clinton would make history again. Two women have never headlined a major party’s presidential ticket. http://abcn.ws/28ZQNGD
POLLS SHOWS WHY CLINTON MAY (OR MAY NOT) PICK WARREN. Many have been speculating in recent days about what presumptive Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton thinks about Massachusetts Sen.Elizabeth Warren as her running mate. But what does the average American think? Recent polling has given us hints about whether a Warren pick would set Clinton up for success or failure. The Massachusetts Senator -- known for her liberal policies and focus on economic inequality and Wall Street reform -- was one of the last prominent Democrats to endorse Clinton for President. But a source familiar with the process, said Warren is on the VP short list and is currently being vetted as a potential running mate. ABC’s RYAN STRUYK, NOAH FITZGEREL and PAOLA CHAVEZ have more on the five poll numbers that show why Clinton may (or may not) pick Warren as her number two. http://abcn.ws/2937m26
VOTER VOICES: WARREN AS BIG OF A DRAW IN OHIO AS CLINTON. There's no doubt Hillary Clinton is a huge draw for Ohio Democrats when she comes to the state, but it was a surrogate who joined her Monday in Cincinnati who had many voters cheering their hearts out. Elizabeth Warren, the progressive champion and possible vice presidential pick for Clinton, showed she has the ability to bring out voters who normally would have stayed home or out of the process altogether. ABC’s JOSH HASKELL and LIZ KREUTZ note, sprinkled in the crowd of 1,500 at the Union Terminal at the Cincinnati Museum were Bernie Sanders supporters who were hesitant to make the switch to Clinton, but Warren put them over the edge, some said. http://abcn.ws/299ky4I
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
ANALYSIS -- POLL SHOWS DEEP HOLE FOR DONALD TRUMP, WITH ROOM FOR MORE DIGGING. The new ABC News-Washington Post poll captures a candidate in apparent freefall. Donald Trump is now down 12 points to Hillary Clinton, a 14-point swing from where he stood barely a month ago, roughly the period since he locked up the Republican nomination. The poll also suggests that Trump’s divisive campaign can easily further alienate voters. There’s quite a bit further that he can fall, particularly as the nation looks more favorably on the incumbent Democratic president Trump has sought to cast himself against. But there are also glimmers of opportunity for Trump, as reflected in concerns about Clinton’s candidacy, and broader societal forces at play this year. Yet while the climate might favor Trump, the forecast clearly doesn’t. http://abcn.ws/295viC9
WHO’S TWEETING?
@brianefallon: Far from honoring the four brave Americans who died, the Benghazi Committee has been a partisan sham since its start
@kathleenatap: Trump's Muslim ban: From simple clarity to plain confusion. Can't have enough fact checks in this campaign. @AP http://apne.ws/291TDL0
@PhilipRucker: Trump makes more hires — Michael Abboud joins @JasonMillerinDC in comms, Alan Cobb dir of coalitions, via @WaPoSean http://wapo.st/293yPAu
@bterris: The story you've been waiting for by @Fahrenthold: Trump promised millions to charity. The Post found less than $10k http://wapo.st/295dGaF
@BillAdairDuke: Interesting fact-check of Stephen Colbert on claim that Paul Ryan shut off cameras during sit-in. http://bit.ly/2917td5