The Note: The Stage Is Set In Vegas
— -- By MICHAEL FALCONE
NOTABLES
--WHAT WE KNOW ABOUT HOW HILLARY IS GETTING READY: Hillary Clinton is hunkering down and doing her homework ahead of tomorrow's first Democratic presidential debate. According to a campaign official, she's been holding mock debates to prepare -- with some of her top aides playing the roles of her political opponents, ABC's LIZ KREUTZ reports. (Clinton's lawyer Robert Barnett has played Bernie Sanders; her policy adviser Jake Sullivan has played Martin O'Malley.) According to the New York Times, leading Clinton's debate prep is former Biden aide, Ron Klain, and litigator, Karen Dunn -- both of whom were involved in President Obama's 2012 debate prep. (Dunn is known for having told Obama to "punch him in the face!" during a mock debate session when the president didn't take a swipe at John Kerry, who was playing Mitt Romney).
--HUCKABEE CAMP LAUNCHES VINE ATTACK ON CLINTON: Today, Mike Huckabee's presidential campaign has released a series of Vine videos responding to Hillary Clinton, who recently sent a copy of her book, "Hard Choices" to Republican presidential candidates, including Huckabee. "Receiving a copy of Hillary Clinton's book in no way reminded me of her 'record of accomplishment'. Instead, it reminded me that many of her choices should have never been 'Hard Choices'. Whether it is Benghazi, her email server, foreign donations, TPP, or hiding from the public in her campaign, Hillary has made a lot of wrong choices." VINES: https://vine.co/mikehuckabee
--BIDEN WATCH IN WILMINGTON: Two days, several motorcade chases, and a couple of stops at sporting events for Joe Biden's grandchildren later and the vice president's weekend activities offered no real insight into the status of his deliberations about a presidential run, ABC's JORDYN PHELPS notes. Hallie Biden, the widow of the vice president's late son Beau, was spotted by reporters pulling into the VP's driveway Sunday evening, but there has been no indication of a full court family meeting -- at least not yet. When one reporter attempted to broach the topic of 2016 with Biden at a cross-country meet for his granddaughter on Saturday, the vice president made clear he was in no mood to talk politics. "Get out of my way, will ya?" the vice president replied sarcastically, pushing past the cluster of cameras and returning to join his family and stretching with his granddaughter Natalie as she readied for her race at the starting line. The vice president will remain at his Delaware home today.
--ANALYSIS -- ABC's RICK KLEIN: It's a nightmare scenario about to get a wider television audience -- unless Hillary Clinton has them right where she wants them. The external forces surrounding Clinton's debut debate of the cycle could hardly be worse. She's seen her polling number slip, questions about her email swirl, and Bernie Sanders' crowds swell, all while she shifts a few positions to answer voices from the left. Tuesday night, moreover, may wind up being about someone who isn't even on the stage. And yet... given that this is the first time the Democrats have actually engaged with each other on stage, might Clinton like the dynamics that confronts her in the first debate? The Benghazi committee looks -- shock! -- political, thanks to the guy who now isn't going to be House speaker. The candidates not named Clinton and Sanders who will be on the stage have shown few signs of gaining any traction. All the drama and the questions obscure an important fact about the Democratic race: Clinton is still winning, and she'll be leading in polls even if Vice President Joe Biden gets in this week.
--105: The number of days since Donald Trump has trailed in a national poll, according to ABC's RYAN STRUYK.
IN THE NOTE'S INBOX: AMERICA RISING REVS UP FOR DEBATE NIGHT. Colin Reed, executive director of the Republican opposition research group, America Rising PAC, is out with a debate eve memo today titled: "How Hillary Clinton Went From Prohibitive Favorite To Vulnerable In Six Months." Among the memo's conclusions: "Her numbers on trustworthiness and honesty remain abysmal in key battleground states needed for any White House contender on the path to 270 electoral votes. ... In New Hampshire, home of the First In The Nation primary, Clinton is trailing Bernie Sanders by significant margins in more than a half dozen of the latest polls. ... The headlines continue to be dominated by stories about her email habits, now the subject of an expanded F.B.I. probe ... The Clinton campaign burn rate was an astonishing 90 percent in the third quarter." FULL MEMO: http://bit.ly/1RCg3xu The group's rapid response site will go live Tuesday night (don't be fooled by the current countdown clock). The group says it will be provide "live updates from our War Room that will fact-check everything Secretary Clinton says": http://live.americarisingpac.org
FIVETHIRTYEIGHT IN THE NOTE -- BERNIE SANDERS'S BIG CHANCE TO WOO NON-WHITE VOTER by FiveThirtyEight's HARRY ENTEN: You've heard it over and over again: Sen. Bernie Sanders has a problem with minority voters that will likely prevent him from winning the Democratic presidential nomination if he doesn't fix it. The latest YouGov poll, for instance, has him winning 34 percent of whites but just 13 percent of Hispanics and 8 percent of black voters in the Democratic primary. You can win Iowa and New Hampshire with those numbers, but not the nomination. The good news for Sanders is that Tuesday's Democratic debate should give him a chance to ameliorate one of his biggest problems with minority voters: They don't know who he is. READ MORE: http://53eig.ht/1WWDRzh
TODAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC's SHUSHANNAH WALSHE: Eight presidential candidates are attending the No Labels Problem Solver Convention in New Hampshire hosted by Jon Huntsman and Joe Lieberman. It's one of the only presidential forums where we will see both Republicans and Democratic candidates together. Martin O'Malley is kicking it off at 8:30AM, Lindsey Graham is at 9:45AM, Donald Trump is at 11AM followed by Chris Christie at 1:15pm. Bernie Sanders will address the event via livestream at 2pm followed by George Pataki at 3PM. Jim Webb is at 3:30, also via livestream and John Kasich rounds out the day at 5:15PM. Iowa is also busy today. Ted Cruz, Rand Paul, and Bobby Jindal are all in the state. Rick Santorum is in Ted Cruz country speaking in Fort Worth, Texas this afternoon. He will give an address unveiling his economic plan and call for a complete overhaul of the tax code.
THE 5 STORIES YOU'LL CARE ABOUT IN POLITICS THIS WEEK. Republicans are splitting apart, while Democrats are set to get together. The two men who ran for No. 2 three years ago are looking like number ones in their respective parties. And Donald Trump somehow isn't part of the conversation -- not even when he invited a Hispanic woman to join him on stage and brandish a magazine with his family on it. (That really happened.) ABC's RICK KLEIN looks at the stories the ABC News political team will be tracking in the week ahead: http://abcn.ws/1jief1i
THE BUZZ
with ABC's VERONICA STRACQUALURSI
HOW SOME 2016 CANDIDATES MIGHT (NOT) GET A HOME STATE ADVANTAGE. In the long road to the nomination, some candidates from delegate-heavy states may hope to get a boost thanks to home field advantage. But an ABC News analysis of state level polling found that most candidates aren't doing much better on home turf than in the national spotlight. Over the spring and summer, many candidates -- like former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, Ohio Gov. John Kasich -- once sat atop the polls in their home states. But now the playing field has changed, cutting Jeb Bush's support by two-thirds in Florida, chopping Kasich's support in half in Ohio, and Christie's support falling more than 30 points in New Jersey. ABC's RYAN STRUYK has a breakdown of how candidates are doing in their own backyards. http://abcn.ws/1jVWKEa
BOBBY JINDAL DEFENDS COMMENTS BLAMING OREGON SCHOOL SHOOTER'S FATHER FOR MASSACRE. Louisiana governor and Republican presidential candidate Bobby Jindal defended his response to the mass shooting at Umpqua Community College in Oregon in which he blamed the shooter's father for the massacre. In a blog post on his campaign website, Jindal said the father of Chris Harper-Mercer should be embarrassed to show his face in public. Those comments sparked backlash, but Jindal doubled down yesterday during an interview on ABC's "This Week," saying the father has no right to lecture the American people on gun control, ABC's KATHERINE FAULDERS notes. "We have a culture that doesn't value life. We've got millions of boys growing up without a father figure, without that guidance at home," Jindal said. "Too often these shooters are misguided young men." http://abcn.ws/1Osf8RX
BEN BERNANKE VS. BERNIE SANDERS. Former Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke pushed back against past criticism from Democratic presidential candidate Sen. Bernie Sanders over the Fed's action during the 2008 financial crisis, calling the Vermont senator -- and others -- "mistaken" in their criticisms. According to ABC's BENJAMIN BELL, Sanders specifically has taken aim at Bernanke and his job performance on more than one occasion, including in 2009 when he said Bernanke "failed at all four core responsibilities of the Federal Reserve" during the crisis. http://abcn.ws/1WUYUlN
IS JASON CHAFFETZ THE FRESH FACE CONGRESS NEEDS? HE THINKS SO. With Capitol Hill in turmoil over who will be the next speaker of the House, one Congressman is standing up to say he is the right person for the job. Rep. Jason Chaffetz, R-Utah, told ABC's MARTHA RADDATZ yesterday on "This Week" he believes he has what it takes to lead a Congress rife with dysfunction and in need of a speaker after Ohio Rep. John Boehner's sudden resignation, ABC's MERIDITH MCGRAW notes. "We need a fresh start. We have a gulf and a divide that needs to be bridged. We need a speaker, I think, who takes the communications realm and drives the discussion in this country about what it is we're standing for and what it is we're trying to do," he said. http://abcn.ws/1FZcXCL
JENNIFER GRANHOLM HANDICAPS HILLARY'S FIRST DEBATE. Before tomorrow's debate, ABC's BENJAMIN BELL asked Hillary Clinton supporter and ABC News contributor -- former Michigan Gov. Jennifer Granholm, who is also a senior adviser to Correct the Record, a pro-Clinton group -- about what to expect from Clinton on Tuesday, about why she thinks the former secretary of state would make a better president than Bernie Sanders. http://abcn.ws/1FY7dcg
WHAT WE'RE READING
"A FLAT TAX IS THE BEST PATH TO PROSPERITY," a Wall Street Journal Op-Ed by Rick Santorum. "Since 2007, 15,000 American factories have shut down and more than two million manufacturing jobs have been lost. Wages have flatlined; American families are struggling. In every recovery since 1960, real GDP grew by 4% a year, according to a report from the Congressional Joint Economic Committee. The Obama-Biden policies have resulted in a paltry 2.3% annual growth since the recession ended in 2009. This growth gap has cost the country $5.4 trillion in lost economic output and 5.5 million fewer jobs than would have been expected during a normal recovery. So what is Hillary Clinton's vision to get the economy moving? She wants to slam investors with higher capital gains taxes. Bernie Sanders wants to raise the top personal-income tax rate to 90%." http://on.wsj.com/1LJ9CcY
TALES FROM THE TRAIL: AS PRIMARY DRAWS NEAR, NEW HAMPSHIRE GIVES ITSELF AN ELECTION YEAR MAKEOVER. Call it the primary economy of New Hampshire. It's a ritual every four years -- famous political landmarks getting spruced up just in time for the crush of visitors here to witness the New Hampshire primary in early February, ABC's BRAD MIELKE writes. There's perhaps no restaurant more frequented by candidates than Red Arrow, which is why it's being torn apart down to the floorboards. Across town, hotels are also readying for 2016, when politicians, staff, volunteers and media will flood the state in the buildup to the first-in-the-nation primary. http://abcn.ws/1jWf2Ff
WHO'S TWEETING?
@maggieNYT: SCOOP: Tulsi Gabbard says she was disinvited by DWS aides to Vegas debate day after she called fr more debates on TV http://www.nytimes.com/politics/first-draft/2015/10/12/d-n-c-officer-says-she-was-disinvited-from-debate-after-calling-for-more-of-them/ ...
@ChadPergram: Sources indicate the longer Ryan doesn't ABSOLUTELY rule himself out of Spkr's race increases chances he'll eventually go for it.
@nationaljournal: Why people run for president even when they can't win: A psychological investigation http://njour.nl/s/23639
@Nate_Cohn: Clinton holds a massive 70-20 lead over Sanders in South Carolina if Biden stays out of the race. http://edition.cnn.com/2015/10/12/politics/poll-south-carolina-nevada-hillary-clinton/index.html ...
@FusionNews: Paul Ryan still resisting desperate Republican pleas to become Speaker http://fus.in/1VNSjag