The Note: Trump Talks Economy

— -- NOTABLES

--TRUMP TO PROPOSE EXCLUDING CHILD CARE EXPENSES FROM TAXATION IN MAJOR ECONOMIC SPEECH: Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump is set to propose excluding child care expenses from taxation in a major economic speech today, according to a senior-level campaign source. In a broad address aimed at rounding out a more robust economic policy, Trump is expected to propose ending the estate tax -- sometimes dubbed the "death tax" -- and reducing taxes across the board, calling the proposal the biggest tax reform since Ronald Reagan's tenure. Trump will also continue his focus on trade agreements such as NAFTA, as well as reducing regulations, focusing on domestic energy sources and reducing business income taxes to 15 percent. More from ABC’s CANDACE SMITH, JOHN SANTUCCI and RYAN STRUYK: http://abcn.ws/2b836Qy

--BACKSTORY: Trump first revealed his economic ideas and tax plan last September during a news conference at Trump Tower. The speech in Detroit will "expand on the plan last fall, delivering a more detailed economic proposal,” the campaign source told ABC News. Trump is also expected to be joined by some members of his newly established economic advisory panel. The speech is slated for 11:30 a.m. in Detroit. http://abcn.ws/2b836Qy

--ANALYSIS -- ABC’s RICK KLEIN: It’s not just that Donald Trump needs to pivot – it’s that he needs to pivot away from being what’s made him Donald Trump. That means traditional-candidate Trump, maybe even boring-candidate Trump, reading from notes or TelePrompTers, and staying away from interviews and Twitter for a while. (Not coincidentally, Hillary Clinton is quite good at all of that.) Monday’s speech on the economy, where Trump is expected to lay out his plans for tax cuts and make the case against Hillary Clinton’s plans, will stand as proof (or not) that he gets the message. But the damage already done is severe: The latest ABC News/Washington Post poll makes clear he squandered his convention opportunities, and then stomped all over the post-convention period with a counter-productive series of feuds. Nearly three-fourths of all voters, and six in 10 Republicans, disapproved of his handling of his dispute with the Khan family. He can put that, along with his intra-party fight with Paul Ryan, John McCain, and Kelly Ayotte, behind him now but doing something he’s not that good at: not making news. Remember, with Trump, dominating news cycles is not his problem. It’s dominating them with a message his party can rally behind that has proved vexing.

LAST WEEKEND ON THE TRAIL

CLINTON OPENS 23-POINT LEAD AMONG WOMEN, GAINS WITH DEMOCRATS AS TRUMP STRUGGLES. Hillary Clinton has advanced among women and consolidated support within her party since her nominating convention, while a difficult few weeks have left Donald Trump still struggling on basic ratings from his temperament to his qualifications for office. She leads him by 8 points in a new ABC News/Washington Post poll, ABC’s GARY LANGER reports. Trump's ratings in general haven't worsened -- they just haven't improved since he claimed the Republican nomination. http://abcn.ws/2aCtu0l

--THE TROUBLE LIST IS LONG: Seventy-nine percent of Americans say he doesn’t show enough respect for people he disagrees with, 70 percent express anxiety about a Trump presidency, 67 percent think he lacks the personality and temperament it takes to serve effectively, 64 percent doubt his understanding of world affairs, 63 percent see him unfavorably overall, 62 percent say he's not honest and trustworthy, 61 percent think he's unqualified for office and 60 percent think he's biased against women and minorities. http://abcn.ws/2aCtu0l

TRUMP QUESTIONS CLINTON'S MENTAL STATE: 'I DON'T THINK SHE'S ALL THERE.' Donald Trump stayed largely on message at a campaign event in New Hampshire Saturday night, giving wary Republicans cause for relief, as he launched into an all-out assault on Hillary Clinton that she is mentally unfit to be president. "She short circuited, she used the term 'short-circuited.' She took a little short circuit in the brain," Trump said. "And she's got problems, I mean, if we had real people, this would be a real problem for her, but I think that the people of this country don't want somebody that's going to short circuit up here." ABC’s CANDACE SMITH notes, Trump's usage of the phrase "short-circuit" was a reference to Clinton's own remarks during a press conference as she tried to explain why she falsely said during an interview that FBI Director James Comey said that her statements about her private servers were "truthful." http://abcn.ws/2avIT2J

NORTH CAROLINA CHURCH BACKS TRUMP, CAMPAIGN REACHES OUT TO BLACK VOTERS. Donald Trump's campaign is trying to make inroads with African-Americans, as an ABC News/Washington Post poll finds that just 2 percent of black voters support the businessman in his run for president. Prominent surrogates including his daughter-in-law Lara Trump, national spokeswoman Katrina Pierson, former "The Apprentice" contestant Omarosa Manigault, and Pastor Mark Burns campaigned Sunday at historically black church Antioch Road to Glory International Ministries in Charlotte, North Carolina. The church is now publicly supporting Trump, having hosted a town hall yesterday billed as "A Day of Endorsement,” ABC’s CANDACE SMITH reports. http://abcn.ws/2aDUPiI

MEXICAN FOREIGN MINISTER CALLS TRUMP’S IDEA OF MEXICO PAYING FOR BORDER WALL ‘ABSURD.’ Mexico’s foreign minister Claudia Ruiz Massieu dismissed Republican candidate Donald Trump’s campaign promise that her government would pay for a U.S.-Mexico border wall, ABC’s QUINN OWEN notes. “Well, that's absurd; we would never consider that,” Ruiz Massieu said in an interview with ABC’s JONATHAN KARL. “I think that's the real issue here. It's not a problem about a wall. It is a problem about narrow minds,” she said. “We have a very integrated economy that would suffer greatly if we place barriers into that dynamic.” http://abcn.ws/2aJ02JP

GIULIANI WOULD HAVE PROSECUTED CLINTON OVER EMAILS AS SECRETARY OF STATE. Former federal prosecutor Rudy Giuliani, now a Donald Trump campaign adviser, said he would have prosecuted Democratic nominee Hillary Clinton over her handling of classified information in emails as Secretary of State. "Many reasonable prosecutors have come to the conclusion that they would have brought such a case, I would have brought such a case. I would have won such a case," Giuliani, who is also a former New York City mayor, said on ABC's "This Week." ABC’s NICKI ROSSOLL has more. http://abcn.ws/2aDc2ss

IN CASE YOU MISSED IT

WHETHER CLINTON OR TRUMP WINS, AMERICANS NEED TO THINK AHEAD TO THE TRANSITION OF POWER. It may look seamless from the outside but the United States' transition of power every four to eight years to a new administration is "the point of maximum vulnerability for our country," said Max Stier, who heads an organization that aims to smooth the changeover from one president to the next. The upcoming transition from the Obama administration to that of the newly elected president will require a shift for thousands of political appointees, Stier, president and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service, told ABC’s “This Week.” ABC’s BLAIR GUILD has more. http://abcn.ws/2aEtEHH