The Note: Wisconsin Primary Primer
— -- NOTABLES
--WHAT’S AT STAKE TODAY: When the 2016 race kicked off, few pundits would have predicted Wisconsin’s April primary might be a game changer on both sides of the aisle. But the Badger state, where voters head to the polls today, could be key in determining if the Republicans head to a contested convention and if Sen. Bernie Sanders maintains momentum after five straight victories. Here’s a rundown of everything at stake today, courtesy of ABC’s ALANA ABRAMSON: http://abcn.ws/228Jon5
--DELEGATE MATH: Of the 42 delegates at stake for the Republicans, 24 are in Congressional districts, (3 in each of the 8 districts) and 18 are at-large delegates. The at-large delegates are winner-take-all and based on the statewide vote. Whoever wins the statewide vote gets all 18 delegates. The Congressional districts are winner-take-all based on district. So, for example, if Ted Cruz wins one Congressional district, he will get all 3 of the delegates there. If he wins all 8 districts, he will get all 24 delegates. On the Democratic side, there are 86 pledged, and 10 superdelegates. As is standard for the Democrats, both candidates have to get a minimum of 15 percent of the vote to amass any delegates. Both Clinton and Sanders are virtually certain to hit that threshold. http://abcn.ws/228Jon5
--MATT DOWD SPEAKS: ABC News political analyst Matthew Dowd says of Trump: "If he would win Wisconsin, he likely gets it, if he loses Wisconsin he likely doesn't," Dowd told ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY of Trump’s securing the nomination outright. "It's still possible, but much more difficult." http://abcn.ws/1q02gs2
--ANALYSIS -- ABC’s RICK KLEIN: For a day, at least, your frontrunners are also your underdogs. Wisconsin has taken Hillary Clinton and Donald Trump off-message, if not off-track, in the most anticipated single primary since the first four voting states. The stakes are particularly high for Trump, with a setback at the virtual midpoint of voting poised to narrow his path to a majority of delegates. Part of what’s striking is how much Trump has changed his tone in a state that’s threatening to humble him. Just in the last few days, he said it was a mistake to circulate an unflattering picture of Ted Cruz’s wife; cleaned up policy positions on abortion after giving contradictory answers; and has seemed to recognize his problems among women, bringing his own wife out with him on the trail. For most any candidate, such moves may hardly draw notice. Trump is not on an apology tour. But for a man who virtually never admits a mistake, Wisconsin is shaping up as a teaching opportunity – and has already impacted the course of the campaign.
DISS OF THE DAY with ABC’s MERIDITH MCGRAW: MELANIA KNOWS BEST. After @realDonaldTrump’s retweet of a photo with Heidi Cruz and Melania Trump's faces launched accusations that Trump is a misogynist, Trump's wife Melania objected to her husband's habit of haphazardly pressing the retweet button in his Twitter app. "Sometimes I feel that the retweets get him in trouble," she told Sean Hannity during an interview with her husband on Fox News last night. "So I say stay away from retweets." Trump fires off tweets multiple times a day as a one-man rapid response team rejecting criticisms or recirculating compliments. Melania has only tweeted three times since her husband announced his candidacy. Her composure -- on stage and online -- is a contrast to Trump's stream-of-consciousness style. The Slovenia-born former supermodel (for whom English is a second language) carefully picks her words, speaks slowly, and very, very rarely retweets -- a lead she says she wishes her husband would follow "if he would only listen."
IN THE NOTE’S INBOX -- RNC RELEASES RESEARCH MEMO: ‘CLINTON PANDERS TOWARD SANDERS ON ENERGY.’ In the latest GOP research memo, the Republican National Committee says: “On one energy and environmental issue after another, Hillary Clinton has been flip flopping, pandering to environmentalists who are Feeling the Bern. In a testy spat with a Greenpeace activist, Clinton defended donations from the oil & gas industry, but in 2008, she ran ads insinuating it might taint a Democrat running for President. She continues to refuse to pledge to neither solicit nor accept donations or bundled contributions from fossil fuel lobbyists.” FULL MEMO: http://bit.ly/1RBSbwh
HAPPENING TODAY: HILLARY CLINTON ON 'THE VIEW.' Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton will be on ABC's "The View" this morning at 11 a.m. The former Secretary of State joins the co-hosts at the Hot Topics table for the first time this election season. Secretary Clinton last appeared on "The View" for Barbara Walters’ farewell show as co-host on May 16, 2014.
YESTERDAY ON THE TRAIL with ABC’s VERONICA STRACQUALURSI
CLINTON, SANDERS AGREE TO DEBATE ON APRIL 14. The Democratic candidates' debate over debates has been resolved -- at least for now. Hillary Clinton and Bernie Sanders have agreed to debate in Brooklyn on Thursday April 14, according to reps for the two campaigns, ABC’s LIZ KREUTZ and MARYALICE PARKS report. The debate will be hosted by CNN and NY1 and will be held at the Brooklyn Navy Yard at 9 p.m. ET. The announcement comes after a week of back-and-forth between the Clinton and Sanders campaigns as they tried to negotiate a day and time for a debate in New York ahead of the state’s primary on April 19. http://abcn.ws/1RYtc8f
CRUZ: ‘I HAVE ALWAYS BEEN FAITHFUL TO MY WIFE.’ Ted Cruz declared that he has “always been faithful” to his wife, Heidi Cruz, in his effort to refute a National Enquirer report about rumors of marital infidelities. At a town hall in Madison, Wisconsin yesterday, moderated by Fox News' Megyn Kelly, Kelly asked Cruz if he has committed adultery, ABC’s JESSICA HOPPER reports. "It's completely made-up nonsense. It's simply not true. I have always been faithful to my wife. I love my wife. She's my best friend in the world. This is the kind of garbage the Trump campaign engages in. You know why? Because they can't debate substance,” Cruz said. When asked by Kelly if a candidate’s personal life or marital indiscretions should matter, Cruz said: “I don’t think it is a state secret that Donald’s personal life hasn’t been immaculate but I have no interest in going there.” http://abcn.ws/1W6tda7
MELANIA TRUMP STUMPS FOR HER HUSBAND. With his support among women voters slipping, Donald Trump called on a woman who knows him well -- his wife. Melania Trump, in a rare campaign appearance, joined her husband on the trail Monday night ahead of the Wisconsin primaries. Mrs. Trump has appeared alongside her husband in the early contest states, but has never delivered a scripted speech as she did at the Milwaukee Theater to supporters. "I’m very proud of him. He is a hard worker, he’s kind, he has a great heart, he’s tough, he’s smart, he’s a great communicator, he’s a great negotiator, he’s telling the truth, he’s a great leader, he’s fair. As you may know by now, when you attack him, he will punch back ten times harder,” Melania Trump said to applause as part of her short scripted speech. ABC’s JOHN SANTUCCI has more. http://abcn.ws/1N5xtzk
MEET THE PRO-DONALD TRUMP WOMEN WHO DEFY HIS NEGATIVE POLLING. Donald Trump front-runner has had a complicated history with women, many of whom remain firmly in his camp. Through his years as a New York businessman, he has lobbed insults at women whom he seems to detest, as well as those he admires. The majority of female registered voters have unfavorable views of Trump, according to two recent polls. In a March 23 Quinnipiac poll, 67 percent of female registered voters had unfavorable views of Trump. But if Donald Trump has a problem with women, don't tell that to his female supporters. ABC’s CANDACE SMITH has more. http://abcn.ws/1VqteVD
IN CASE YOU MISSED IT
WORKER HANGS MEXICAN FLAG ATOP DONALD TRUMP’S VANCOUVER HOTEL. A worker who helped build Trump International Hotel in Vancouver says he took a stand against the building's namesake and his immigration policies over the weekend. Diego Saul Reyna posted a photo and message about his decision to hang a Mexican flag at the top of the hotel's tower on Saturday in the Canadian city, according to ABC’s MEGHAN KENEALLY. http://abcn.ws/1UDM4tR
WHO’S TWEETING?
@MBGtweets: Here's lookin at you, @steveforbesceo & @mkhammer - our speaker & MC for the @ceidotorg dinner! https://cei.org/ceidinner
@mattklewis: Why Trump will probably lose Wisconsin. And why that matters. A lot. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/02/why-losing-wisconsin-could-cost-donald-trump-the-republican-nomi/?utm_source=dlvr.it&utm_medium=twitter …
@wpjenna: Trump eating at a diner in WI is the perfect opportunity to plug this @tomsietsema piece on his cast-iron stomach: http://wpo.st/DKFS1
@KateEHansen: Good post on Trump’s fantasy math, & this is *without* accounting for $1TN he'd take out of econ w/ mass deportation http://wapo.st/1RZnB1q
@mikememoli: Trump's star on Hollywood Walk of Fame attracting all sorts of attention these days. From dogs, too @JosephSerna http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-donald-trump-walk-of-fame-star-20160404-story.html …