Obama faces tough sell with State of the Union speech

WASHINGTON -- The State of the Union speech President Obama delivers Tuesday to a divided Congress in an election year will be his hardest sell yet.

When he came before a Democrat-controlled Congress in 2009, it was as a newly elected president of historic proportions whose honeymoon had just begun.

In 2010, he was still preaching to a Democratic choir, though Republican Scott Brown's upset victory in a Massachusetts Senate race had given the GOP newfound power to stall his health care plan.

By last year, the House was run by Republicans and the Senate was tied in knots. Obama's diminished agenda didn't include major legislation, such as the economic stimulus, health care and financial regulation bills passed in his first two years.

This year, the president's prospects for hope and change are even smaller, for two more reasons. His relationship with Republican leaders is at a low ebb, and everything — the House, the Senate and his own job as president — is up for grabs in November.

So Obama's speech won't be as important for the policy agenda he lays out, most of which may be dead on arrival in Congress, as for the political campaign themes it sets for the next nine months. Perhaps that's why he will travel to Iowa, Arizona, Nevada, Colorado and Michigan — all potentially swing states in the election — for three days after the speech. He'll also engage with viewers through YouTube and Google+.

"This is a make-or-break moment for the middle class and folks trying to work their way into the middle class," Obama said in a video released Saturday by his re-election campaign. "Because we can go in two directions. One is toward less opportunity and less fairness. Or we can fight for where I think we need to go: building an economy that works for everyone, not just a wealthy few."

His call for "an America where everybody gets a fair shot, everyone does their fair share, and everybody plays by the same set of rules" echoes a speech he gave in Osawatomie, Kan., last month. In it, he borrowed from Theodore Roosevelt's address there a century ago on the need for government to help expand the middle class.

The White House hopes that will set the president apart from the angry rhetoric of the Republican presidential primaries, which has focused on getting government out of the private sector's way.

The problem for the president is that Republicans disagree strongly with his goals and are unlikely to accommodate his efforts at compromise and conciliation — efforts Obama himself hasn't made since the summer.

"The State of the Union is a time for truth-telling, and the sad truth is that the president's policies are making our economy worse," Rep. Jeb Hensarling, R-Texas, said Saturday. "It's a new year. It's a time for new, bipartisan solutions to our jobs crisis. We remain hopeful the president will change course and work with Republicans and Democrats in Congress to help get people back to work."

Obama plans to call for bipartisan action, but Washington has seen little of that since he last met with GOP leaders on July 23.

"The president believes that the best thing for the country would be for Democrats and Republicans to find common ground to work together," communications director Dan Pfeiffer says. "That's always been his focus. He believes there's ample opportunity to do that this year."

The opportunity will come almost immediately. The extension of a payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance benefits approved last month will expire in February. In addition, Obama will press for elements of his American Jobs Act that Republicans blocked in the fall.

And before the year is out, lawmakers must decide what to do about $1.2 trillion in otherwise automatic spending cuts and the scheduled expiration of former president George W. Bush's tax cuts.

"Without bipartisan cooperation, he obviously can't bring the big stuff to fruition," says Jared Bernstein, former economic adviser to Vice President Biden.

For the past three months, Obama has taken executive actions in a number of areas under the theme of "We Can't Wait" for Congress to act. He's expected to remind lawmakers of that ability in his address while asserting his preference for legislative action.

"This president is not going to assume that nothing can get done," press secretary Jay Carney says. "It is true that the context here is often, 'we can't wait for Congress to act,' and that will be true throughout the year. But where Congress will act, he will eagerly join with them to get the people's business done."