Back to the Future: Bush's 2001

W A S H I N G T O N -- After the Persian Gulf War, when George H.W. Bush registered a 91 percent approval rating in one poll, a cartoonist drew him thinking, "nine more points to go."

George W. Bush, who along with the rest of us knows what happened instead, must have that image on his mind as he contemplates the year ahead.

Half Empty, or Half Full?

Americans are firmly behind the president and his war policy, but there's no evidence that that support translates into a backing for the domestic policies put forward by Republicans on Capitol Hill, or for the party's candidates. Less than two months after the Sept. 11 attacks on this country, Democrats re-captured the state houses of New Jersey and Virginia after eight years of Republican rule.

That, plus a reading of public opinion polls showing Democratic dominance on economic and health issues, means Democrats aren't cowering in the shadow of the popular president. Though they know it's unwise to attack Bush personally, they think they can take on his party with no fear of retribution from the voters. And they will.

With virtual ties in the House and Senate both parties see the year 2002 as a time to draw bright lines, to show voters the differences between them, rather than try to come to compromises in order to get things done. And despite the newfound sense of camaraderie between the president and the congressional leadership, Bush doesn't seem to be willing to push those compromises.

That's because he's taken to heart another lesson from his father's presidency: don't lose your political base. So, instead of working with moderates of both parties to get legislation passed, Bush lets the conservative Republicans in the House have their way, pushing through bills the Democratically controlled Senate won't even consider. And there's no mechanism for bringing the two sides together unless the president gets in there and cracks a few heads.

Capital Spending

At some point he needs to do that to keep his momentum going. Bush often articulates his well-thought-out theory of political capital: basically that you have to spend it in order to get things done, and your success provides you with more capital. He has used his capital to prosecute the war, but he should also use it to push through a few popular domestic initiatives, to get a patient's bill of rights and a prescription drug program into the Rose Garden for signing ceremonies.

The president has something important going for him if he does try to get some domestic programs enacted: American voters trust government more than they have in decades. They see government workers, firefighters, men and women in the police force and in the military, as heroes. And they are willing to take another look at government activism.

If Bush takes advantage of that spirit, if the war goes well and he keeps his eye on both the economic and security needs of the homefront, the Democrats will have a tough time running effectively against his party next year. But if he decides to let the Republicans on Capitol Hill call the shots domestically, it could be a rough 2002 for him and his party.