Defection Would Be Setback for Bush

W A S H I N G T O N, May 23, 2001 -- If Vermont Sen. James Jeffords does bolt from the Republican Party, as many expect, it will come as a major blow to President Bush.

Such a defection would give Democrats control of the now evenly divided Senate and would seriously hamstring the president's agenda on Capitol Hill. If it comes to pass, Bush will be hard pressed to find anyone outside the White House to blame.

Jeffords, 67, has always been among the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, often voting with Democrats on key issues. But since taking office in January, Bush and his advisers have virtually driven the maverick Vermont senator away from the party that has been his home through two full terms in the Senate and seven in the House.

Teachers, Farmers and Pride

Jeffords chairs the committee that oversees education — his pet issue. So when the White House left him off the invitation list last month for a Rose Garden ceremony honoring a teacher from his home state, the senator was displeased. When he called the White House, asked to be invited and was rebuffed, sources say he became furious.

Many of Jeffords' colleagues viewed the snubbing as payback. A week earlier, the senator had cast the deciding vote that effectively trimmed Bush's $1.6 trillion tax-cut proposal by $400 billion. Jeffords had pressed Bush to include an increase in funding for special education for disabled children, but he refused.

"The White House blundered … in slapping Jeffords and pushing too far — doing things that he viewed as an insult," said Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute.

But aides to Bush say the non-invitation was not intended as a slight. They maintain the administration decided no members of Congress would be invited to the ceremony, in order to keep the focus on teachers.

"Nobody played hardball," White House press secretary Ari Fleischer told reporters today. "It is not at all unusual for people to be honored at the White House without inviting members of Congress."

The president has pledged to "bring more civility" to Washington. But his administration did little to ease its strained relations with Jeffords during or after the budget episode. In fact, it did just the opposite, punishing the senator for his independence and trying to strong-arm him into backing Bush's agenda.

During negotiations over the budget, for example, White House Chief of Staff Andy Card reached out to reporters in Jeffords' home state in an attempt to pressure the senator to support the president's spending plan.

More recently, Capitol Hill sources say, the White House had been threatening to oppose the renewal of the New England Dairy Compact — an agreement that locks in high dairy prices in the Northeast, a key issue in Vermont. That, many observers say, was the final straw for Jeffords.

"This is his pride at stake now," said ABCNEWS political analyst George Stephanopoulos. "The White House comes out and starts calling Vermont reporters when he votes on the tax bill and put pressure on him that way, they start to threaten the lifeblood of his state — dairy farmers — and then he has to stand up for his state."

The White House, however, denies using heavy-handed political tactics with Jeffords.

"Sen. Jeffords has always been an independent thinker," Fleischer said. "In all cases, President Bush and the White House have been very respectful of him."

Many say Jeffords had become increasingly frustrated at being a moderate in a party dominated by conservatives. Sen. Olympia Snowe, R-Maine, also a moderate, says she knows how her colleague feels.

"We have to fight to make sure that our voices our views, our agenda is heard … within our party," she said today.

Tipping the Balance of Power

Republicans have control of the 50-50 Senate by virtue of Vice President Dick Cheney's constitutional authority to cast tie-breaking votes. Were Jeffords to become an independent or a Democrat, the move would give Democrats the majority.

"We all hope that Sen. Jeffords remains a Republican," Fleischer said this afternoon. "That's based on … our desire to make sure the Senate remains in Republican hands so our agenda can continue to move through."

But if Jeffords does abandon the GOP, Democrats will be setting the legislative agenda, scheduling the votes and calling the shots in the Senate.

Minority Leader Tom Daschle of South Dakota would be catapulted to the position of Majority Leader and the ranking Democrats on each committee would become the chairmen. Dyed-in-the-wool Democrat Edward Kennedy of Massachusetts, for example, would head the influential Health, Labor, Education and Pensions Committee now chaired by Jeffords.

And instead of Utah Republican Orrin Hatch chairing the Senate Judiciary Committee, which must approve all of Bush's judicial nominations, Jeffords' fellow Vermonter Patrick Leahy would head the panel.

The consequences for many of the key items on Bush's agenda that have yet to be addressed by Congress — energy policy, national missile defense, Social Security reform — could be grave.

"I would guess that President Bush will get his two primary objectives — the tax cut and an education bill — and nothing else out of this Congress," speculated Sen. Robert Bennett, R-Utah.

But Fleischer downplayed the possible effects of a defection by Jeffords.

"Given its close makeup, the president has been tremendously successful in getting things done in the Senate," he insisted. "Regardless of any decisions, the president will always govern in that style, which is to keep things toned-down, to keep things productive and to keep things moving."

Please Don't Go

In recent days, the White House has tried to woo Jeffords back into the GOP fold. Bush and Cheney each met privately with the senator on Tuesday, but sources say Jeffords refused to give them the assurances they sought.

Today, a half-dozen of Jeffords' fellow Republican moderates in the Senate met twice with the senator to urge him to stay in the GOP. His defection, they argued, would dilute the influence of moderates in the body.

And, sources say, Republican leaders in the Senate have offered Jeffords a leadership position in a last-ditch effort to convince him to stay.

"This is a decision based on his political beliefs and true conscience," said a representative for Jeffords. "It has nothing to do with being lured by leadership positions. — It's a deeply personal decision."

But Jeffords' ultimate decision will likely be as much a personal judgment about Bush as it is a political move based on his ideology.

ABCNEWS' Linda Douglass and Terry Moran contributed to this report.