Battlegrounds: The State of Play
Nov. 1, 2000 -- To win the White House, a candidate must capture 270 electoral votes. An analysis by ABCNEWS shows Republican George W. Bush poised for victory in 24 states, totaling 209 electoral votes, while Democrat Al Gore is well-positioned in 12 states, with a total of 171 electoral votes.
That leaves 15 toss-up states, representing 158 electoral votes, where neither candidate has a substantial lead. They are the battlegrounds of the campaign.
Arkansas
Electoral Votes: 6Candidate Visits: Bush (7); Gore (3)Latest poll: Gore, 44 percent; Bush, 45 percent (Mason-Dixon, 10/29/00 poll of 625 people).
Arkansas is President Clinton’s home state, but the GOP has made gains in recent years, winning the governorship and a number of other state offices. Bush has campaigned hard in the state, pulling even with Gore in recent statewide polls. Cheney was campaigning in Hot Springs on Monday.
The president won the state easily in 1992 and 1996 and was considering a campaign appearance here on Gore’s behalf. Gore’s running mate Joseph Lieberman will appear in Little Rock today, followed by Gore himself on Friday, just four days before the election.
Florida
Electoral Votes: 25Candidate Visits: Bush (15); Gore (18)Latest poll: Bush, 48 percent; Gore, 44 percent (LA Times, 10/29/00 poll of 401 people).
The Sunshine State is the fourth-largest prize of the election, trailing only California, New York and Texas in electoral votes, and a must-win for Bush. With his brother Jeb serving as governor, the Republican nominee once appeared poised to carry the state easily. But recent polls give the Texas governor only a slight edge.
Appearing today on ABCNEWS’ Good Morning America, the Florida governor said his brother “is very calm and optimistic about his chances” in the state and is “firedup by the response of the really large and enthusiastic crowds that he isgetting.”
They’re feeling the energy on the Democratic side, as well. Gore’s choice of Sen. Joseph Lieberman as running mate has energized the state’s formidable Jewish population, and his focus on Medicare, Social Security and prescription drugs have helped boost his support among the state’s senior citizens, who account for nearly a third of the electorate.
Gore and Lieberman have campaigned in Florida nearly every week since Labor Day. The Gore camp and the Democratic National Committee have spent a combined $2 million on advertising in the state. In the past week, the Gore campaign has launched a pair of new ads in the state criticizing Bush’s Social Security proposal. In one of them, former Social Security commissioner Bob Ball warns, “I’ve looked at Gov. Bush’s plans. He’d take one trillion out of Social Security for savings accounts, but Social Security is counting on that money to pay benefits.”
“I know the man [Gore] is trying to scare you into the voting booth,” Bush told voters in Daytona Beach last Wednesday, as he stumped across he state with his brother Jeb and former rival John McCain.
The Bush campaign is running ads in both English and Spanish here targeting the state’s considerable Latino population.
“I’m proud of the Latino blood that flows in the Bush family,” the Texas governor says in one of the spots.
Cheney campaigns in Orlando and St. Petersburg today, while the vice president stumps in Orlando and Tampa. Bush will be the only candidate who doesn’t set foot here today.
Iowa
Electoral Votes: 7Candidate Visits: Bush (7); Gore (11)
The Hawkeye State was the site of big victories for both Bush and Gore during the primaries. This is one of a handful of states that has seesawed throughout the course of the campaign, going from a Bush lead to a Gore lead and now to a toss-up.
Bush stops in Des Moines today for a rally as his running mate’s wife, Lynne Cheney, appears in Council Bluffs.The vice president and his wife, Tipper, will rally supporters here with a visit to the Iowa State campus in Ames on Thursday.
The Gore campaign has begun airing its firstads in Omaha, Neb., where TV stations broadcast into western Iowa.Bush responded with his own ads for Omaha, underscoring theimportance of Iowa. Nebraska itself is considered safely in theBush column.
Maine
Electoral Votes: 4Candidate Visits: Bush (9); Gore (1)Latest poll: Gore, 42 percent; Bush, 41 percent (Market Decisions, 10/23/00 poll of 824 people).
Maine is one of six states where Green Party nominee Ralph Nader is draining support from Gore. Third party candidate Ross Perot made his best showing in this state in both the 1992 and 1996 elections.
Lieberman appeared in Bangor on Tuesday, telling a crowd of about 300people at the Penobscot Opera House in Bangor that their voteswould have a real impact.
Michigan
Electoral Votes: 18Candidate Visits: Bush (16); Gore (18)Latest poll: Gore, 48 percent; Bush, 44 percent (LA Times, 10/29/00 poll of 401 people.)
Michigan is a perennial Midwestern battleground and this year’s battle for the state is as fierce as any. A slew of high-profile surrogates for each candidate — including the Rev. Jesse Jackson for Gore and National Rifle Association chairman Charlton Heston for Bush — are stumping across the state in the final days of the campaign.
Bush is trying to capitalize on his opponent’s past criticisms of the combustion engine as a threat to the environment, hoping they will not play well with voters in the auto-manufacturing capital of the world. In a Republican ad running only in Michigan, former Chrysler chairman Lee Iococca, a Bush-supporter, warns voters that “Al Gore’s extreme ideas about cars,” could cost jobs in the state.
Gore is counting on extensive get-out-the-vote efforts by organized labor and the NAACP to turn out union workers and African-American voters, two key Democratic constituencies.
Record numbers of Democrats crossed party lines to cast ballots in the state’s Republican primary. But most voted for Sen. John McCain, who won the state, in an effort to embarrass Republican Gov. John Engler, a Bush-backer — their votes are unlikely to stay with the GOP on Nov. 7.
Michigan is the largest of six battleground states where Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is draining the vice president’s support. Gore and Lieberman made a final push here Sunday and Monday with a bus tour across the state. President Clinton is considering an excursion to the state Sunday.
Gore told supporters in Warren last weekend: “Michigan may well turn out to be the key state!”
Minnesota
Electoral Votes: 10Candidate Visits: Bush (0); Gore (6)Latest poll: Bush, 44 percent; Gore, 41 percent (Minneapolis Star-Tribune, 10/18/00 poll of 814).
Minnesota is a left-leaning state that has voted Democratic in the last half-dozen presidential elections. But Green Party candidate Ralph Nader has peeled off enough of Gore’s liberal base to give Bush a chance of capturing its 10 eletoral votes.
Cheney stumped in Rochester on Monday and Bush was making his first appearance in the state today with rallies in Minneapolis and Duluth.
Liberal Sen. Paul Wellstone, D-Minn., has been stumping here on the vice president’s behalf, making a direct appeal to Nader’s supporters.
“It would be a horrible, horrible irony if a vote for Ralph Nader meant that George W. Bush became president of the United States,” he said Saturday at a Minneapolis rally with Gore.
Minnesota’s outspoken independent governor, Jesse Ventura, has opted not to endorse a presidential candidate.
Missouri
Electoral Votes: 11Candidate Visits: Bush (12); Gore (11)Latest poll: Bush, 45 percent; Gore, 44 percent (Mason-Dixon, 10/24/00 poll of 625 people).
The Show Me State is a true bellwether, having voted for the winning candidate in every election this century, with the exception of 1956, when the state voted for losing Democrat Adlai Stevenson.
More money has been spent on political advertising in St. Louis and Kansas City during the 2000 campaign than in any other cities in the nation.
The vice president will campaign in Kansas City and St. Louis Thursday and Friday. Cheney will also campaign in Kansas City on Thursday. The Gore campaign was considering asking President Clinton to campaign in the state as well.
New Hampshire
Electoral Votes: 4Candidate Visits: Bush (3); Gore (2)Latest poll: Gore, 43 percent; Bush, 39 percent (WMUR, 10/13/00 poll of 680 people).
“Live Free or Die” is this state’s motto and voters here pride themselves on their independence. Although President Clinton carried New Hampshire in both 1992 and 1996, this socially conservative state traditionally tilts towards Republicans.
In the state’s first-in-the-nation primaries, Sen. John McCain defeated Bush by a stunning 19-point margin, while Gore eked out a narrow 4-point victory over Bill Bradley.
With four electoral votes, this is the smallest of the states still in play. Lieberman spoke Manchester on Tuesday, reminded voters that Democrats, not Republicans, presided over the nation’s return to economic prosperity, and hegave the Clinton-Gore administration credit.
“I hate to say it, but George Bush will squander ourprosperity,” he said.
Lieberman noted New Hampshire’s rebound from the economicrecession came during Democrats’ control of the White House. Eightyears ago, unemployment was 7.9 percent, the state had lost 50,000jobs and had record high welfare roles. Today, unemployment is 2.9percent with 116,000 new jobs and welfare roles have been cutnearly in half.
Cheney will be in the state Friday, but neither of the men at the top of the tickets have any additional campaign appearances scheduled here.
New Mexico
Electoral Votes: 5Candidate Visits: Bush (5); Gore (4)
Bush hopes his strong support among voters in his home state of Texas will spill over to this neighboring state. More than a quarter of the electorate is Hispanic, a traditionally Democratic constituency, but one that Bush performed well with in the Lone Star State.
The Texas governor held an education event in Bosque Farms and a rally in Albuquerque on Monday. Energy Secretary Bill Richardson, former Clinton cabinet member Henry Cisneros, and actors Martin Sheen and Jimmy Smits areexpected to accompany Gore his wife,Tipper, and his daughter, Karenna Gore Schiff, to Las Cruces on Thursday.
Bush will send some of his Texassupporters into New Mexico for four days of campaign work in andaround Las Cruces beginning Friday.
Oregon
Electoral Votes: 7Candidate Visits: Bush (4); Gore (5)
Oregon voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections, but Green Party candidate Ralph Nader made his strongest showing here in 1996 and is siphoning off enough support from Gore to make it a pure toss-up in 2000. The Republican Leadership Council is now running pro-Nader TV ads here.
The fate of four dams on the Snake River is a divisive issue in the state and may affect how it votes in the presidential election. Some argue the dams should be breached in order to save endangered salmon, but many Oregonians fear breaching the dams would negatively impact the region’s economy. Bush has vowed not to breach the dams if elected, while Gore has not.
Gore and Bush were both campaigning in Portland on Tuesday. The vice president used his appearance to attack the Bush tax plan. The Texas governor received an enthusiastic welcome from supporters Tuesday at a rally in Portland.
Pennsylvania
Electoral Votes: 23Candidate Visits: Bush (17); Gore (21)Latest poll: Bush, 47 percent; Gore, 45 percent (LA Times, 10/29/00 poll of 401 people).
Philadelphia played host to the Republican National Convention, but the city is a Democratic stronghold in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly a half-million voters. The socially conservative Pennsylvania tilts towards Gore, but by an uncomfortably small margin, given that it is a must-win for the Democratic candidate.
The Keystone State has more senior citizens than any other state besides Florida, making the elderly vote critical. Gore has argued his opponent’s plans would put Medicare and Social Security benefits at risk and those criticisms appear to be taking hold with seniors in this state, as they have with many elderly voters in Florida.
Gore’s efforts here will be bolstered by an NAACP bus tour aimed at boosting turnout among black voters, a heavily Democratic constituency. That tour, featuring singer Tracey Chapman, will pass through Philadelphia and Pittsburgh today.
Governor Tom Ridge is leading his own cross-state bus tour in the final days of the presidential campaign to rally support for Bush. Ridge is leading a three-day tour to gather support, which Bush and Cheney plan to join at some point. Former Republican presidential nominee Bob Dole will join Ridge on Friday in the Lehigh Valley.
Former Philadelphia mayor Ed Rendell is leading yet another tour, a seven-day campaign swing that is makingstops today in Allentown, Whitehall and Scranton. Gore and hiswife Tipper will join the Rendell bus tour in Scranton tonight. Gore plans to hang around to continue campaigning on Thursday.
As of today, the candidates have spent more time here than in any other state.
Bush considered tapping the state’s popular Republican governor, Tom Ridge, as his running mate. Had he done so, he would have likely carried the state with ease. Ridge’s well-known support of abortion rights, however, would have angered many social and religious conservatives in other parts of the country.
Gore is appearing in Scranton today, followed by Lieberman in Harrisburg on Thursday.
Tennessee
Electoral Votes: 11Candidate Visits: Bush (6); Gore (14)
It may be Gore’s home state, but Tennesee is a predominantly Republican state. Bush has campaigned here a half-dozen times and flooded the airwaves with commercials, forcing Gore to defend what should be friendly territory — he will campaign in the state Friday and Saturday. Cheney will make an appearance in Nashville on Thursday.
The last presidential nominee to lose his home state was Democrat George McGovern, who failed to win South Dakota in 1972.
Washington
Electoral Votes: 11Candidate Visits: Bush (8); Gore (3)
Washington is one of a half-dozen toss-up states where Green Party candidate Ralph Nader is draining support from Gore, making it a toss-up. It is also one of three states where the Republican Leadership Council is now running pro-Nader TV ads. Bush will campaign in Seattle on Tuesday.
In recent days, liberal Gore supporters, including feminist Gloria Steinem and abortion rights activist Kate Michelman, have stumped in the state in an effort to win over Nader supporters.
Bush ventured toSeattle’s waterfront today to promote his tax reliefplan to workers at the farmer’s and fish markets.
“I’m asking for the vote. I’m also telling the hard-workingpeople they’re going to get tax relief,” Bush told a fruitstand owner as he canvassed for votes.
The fate of four dams on the Snake River, a divisive issue in the state, may effect how it votes in the presidential election. Some argue the dams should be breached in order to help save endangered salmon in the river, but many farmers and business leaders fear breaching the dams would negatively impact the states’s economy. Bush has vowed not to breach the dams if elected, while Gore has not.
West Virginia
Electoral Votes: 5Candidate Visits: Bush (2); Gore (1)
Democrats once had a lock on West Virginia, which voted for the Democratic candidate in five of the last six presidential elections, but Bush now has a slight edge here. This state has benefited from the economic growth presided over by the Clinton-Gore administration far less than many other states.
Additionally, the vice president’s environmental stands may not be playing well in a state where coal mining is a leading industry. Gore campaigned in Charleston last Friday, urging supporters to “get me one more vote per precinct” and will return to the state this Saturday.
Gore and Bush both plan to make return visits to West Virginiathis weekend. Former First Lady Barbara Bush plans to attend a rally for herson early Sunday afternoon inParkersburg.
Wisconsin
Electoral Votes: 11Candidate Visits: Bush (10); Gore (8)
Wisconsin has voted Democratic in the last three presidential elections, but Bush, backed by popular Gov. Tommy Thompson, has been running strong here. The Bush campaign places Wisconsin in the group of states it has dubbed the “Dukakis Five,” those Bush has a shot at winning even though they were carried by 1988 Democratic nominee Michael Dukakis.
Nader’s candidacy has boosted the Republican nominee’s chances here. A Lake-Goeas poll released Oct. 28 showed Gore with 43 percent support, Bush with 42 percent, and the Green Party candidate with six percent, twice that of his national average.
Gore for the first time mentioned Nader by name in a stump speech in Madison last Thursday, saying, “If the big oil companies and the chemical manufacturers and the big polluters were able to communicate a message to this state, they would say, ‘Vote for George Bush, or in any case, vote for Ralph Nader.’”
That speech in Madison, a liberal, Nader-friendly college town, drew the biggest crowd of the vice president’s entire campaign, estimated at 30,000. Gore and Lieberman stumped across the state Monday.
The Associated Press contributed to this report.