Clinton, Lazio Enter Fierce, Final Weeks

N E W   Y O R K, Sept. 5, 2000 -- As summer fades away for most New Yorkers, Hillary Rodham Clinton and Rick Lazio are returning to the trail for two months of pedal-to-the-metal campaigning, as both still search for the winning edge in a very tight race to represent this state in the Senate.

Mrs. Clinton, the Democratic candidate, says she is “gearing up” for the “final stretch” of a campaign that began more than a year ago when she kicked off her “listening tour” of New York in July 1999.

Lazio, the Republican nominee who only entered the race in May, will make a coast-to-coast fund-raising trip this week before returning to the trail at top speed.

“When he comes back, it will be full tilt,” says Lazio’s campaign manager, Bill Dal Col.

Despite the late start, Lazio quickly caught up to Mrs. Clinton in early-summer polls, fueled largely by her high negative ratings. He has remained even or just behind her ever since. A Quinnipiac University poll released Aug. 9 shows Mrs. Clinton leading, 46 percent to 43 percent, while earlier surveys have shown a dead heat.

But Lazio has been unable to budge ahead of Mrs. Clinton. After three months of fund-raising, attack ads, and photo ops on the part of both candidates, the polls have barely moved in either direction.

Debate Debut

One new element that could get those numbers moving will be the first televised debates. The candidates have agreed to three, with the first taking place September 13 in Buffalo. The next two, which will be aired on local New York City stations, have not been scheduled yet.

Some of Mrs. Clinton’s top aides strongly hope the debates will help the first lady break the race open — even though she has never formally debated anyone since her college days.

“I’ve never had to do it before,” she told reporters. “I’ve never run for office, as you know. My maiden voyage is on Sept. 13th.”

Lazio has been honing his own debate skills for several weeks, although campaign aides are reluctant to describe his preparations. The Lazio camp has tried to play down expectations for his performance and would be pleased with a standoff.

Whitewater Report Dead Ahead

Mrs. Clinton also faces potential fallout from the release of Independent Counsel Robert Ray’s report on the Whitewater land deal. Ray announced on August 28 he has a target date of mid-September for disclosing the results of the inquiry.

While Mrs. Clinton is not expected to be indicted, the timing of the release has drawn criticism from Democrats, who question why the results of the investigation are being aired just weeks before the election.

Mrs. Clinton’s campaign spokesman, Howard Wolfson, criticized Ray’s forthcoming report, saying “New Yorkers have already made up their minds about this. They know there is nothing here.”

Earlier this year, Mrs. Clinton was cleared of charges in two other Independent Counsel inquiries, the so-called “Filegate” and “Travelgate” cases.

However, Ray used his public statement about the latter case in June to take a shot at Mrs. Clinton, claiming she had an indirect influence on the 1993 firing of seven White House travel office employees, and he could use the Whitewater report to direct further criticism at the first lady.

Lazio has been able to sidestep potential problems related to his personal finances. On August 28, the Securities and Exchange Commission cleared him of improprieties related to a 1997 stock option deal, and after a delay, Lazio released 10 years of income tax returns last week. The tax records provided no grist for further controversy.

On Message and in the Money

Otherwise, both candidates will continue their attacks, in speeches and in television ads, with Mrs. Clinton hitting Lazio on abortion rights and his tax-cut proposal, and Lazio implying that Mrs. Clinton is not trustworthy.

Both candidates are funding their ad campaigns with unprecedented amounts of contributions. According to figures released by the campaigns on August 31, Mrs. Clinton has raised $3.3 million since July 1, for a total of $21.6 million in the entire race, and has $7.1 million in cash on hand.

The Lazio campaign has raised $10.7 million since July 1, and $15.8 million since he entered the race. With some $10.2 million on hand for the last two months, Lazio may be better-positioned financially than Mrs. Clinton.

Democratic Demography, Republican Geography

Mrs. Clinton is also targeting specific demographic groups, including women, organized labor, and the Jewish community.

Her emphasis on abortion rights is one way she has been trying to shore up her support among white women, a group that — despite her history-making run — has been leaning toward Lazio in the polls.

“I want to make the Democratic Party the women’s party, the party of positive change that will really make a difference in women’s lives,” Mrs. Clinton told an audience in Rockland last week.

The first lady has also been joined at campaign events by daughter Chelsea and her mother, Dorothy Rodham. President Clinton, himself the beneficiary of a substantial gender gap in the 1992 and 1996 elections, has just sent out a fund-raising letter on his wife’s behalf.

For the Lazio campaign, the political geography of New York will remain an important consideration. The GOP candidate figures to lose by a wide margin in heavily Democratic New York City, but according to the polls, has a large advantage among suburban voters and the edge in traditionally Republican upstate New York.

But Lazio still hopes to improve his performance in the urban areas of northern and western New York, including Buffalo and Syracuse.

A GOP source who has seen state-wide Republican polling information has told ABCNEWS that while Lazio is running well in pockets of the Buffalo area, his current showing in Syracuse is a cause for concern.

Presidential Politics a Factor

The two campaigns are also trying to gauge the effect of the presidential race on the Senate contest.

Democrat Al Gore holds a substantial edge on Republican George W. Bush in the polls, and Democratic strength at the top of the ticket should benefit Mrs. Clinton. But a lopsided race could depress turnout no matter who wins, so Mrs. Clinton has included get-out-the-vote events in her recent schedule.

Political observers have also speculated that Democratic presidential candidate Al Gore’s decision to add Sen. Joseph Lieberman, an Orthodox Jew, to the ticket, could help Mrs. Clinton by a few percentage points.

The first lady has had uneasy relations with portions of New York’s Jewish community, and in the last Quinnipiac poll led Lazio among Jews 52 percent to 36 percent. Traditionally, political strategists say that Democrats need at least 60 percent of the Jewish vote to win state-wide races.

But Lazio seems undaunted by the presence of Lieberman, telling ABCNEWS in August, “Hillary Clinton is no Joe Lieberman.”

Lazio aides also point to New York’s history of ballot-splitting. In 1992, GOP Senator Alphonse D’Amato beat Democratic challenger Robert Abrams even though Bill Clinton, the Democratic presidential candidate, defeated Republican President George Bush by over 1 million votes in the state.

Ultimately, the presidential vote may not have a discernible effect on the Senate contest. For all the effort and money poured into the race, it is possible, or even likely, that race will still be a toss-up when voters head to the polls on November 7.

—ABCNEWS’ Eileen A. Murphy and Stephen Yesner contributed to this report.