Kerry Looks Unstoppable Ahead of Tuesday
Feb. 9, 2004 -- On the eve of Tuesday's primaries in Tennessee and Virginia, Massachusetts Sen. John Kerry has reason to feel good about his prospects in both contests.
The Democratic front-runner also has a strong likelihood of improving his record in the race for the presidential nomination to winning 12 out of the first 14 primaries and caucuses and surging well ahead of the field in accumulating delegates to the Democratic National Convention in July.
Kerry had a big weekend, riding high on a trio of seemingly easy victories, and the campaign hopes to carry that momentum into Tuesday's contests.
Kerry swept the three caucuses that stretched from coast to coast over the weekend. On Saturday, Kerry won in Michigan with 52 percent of the vote and in Washington with 49 percent, besting the second-place finisher, former Vermont Gov. Howard Dean, by roughly 35 and 20 points in each contest, respectively.
On Sunday, Kerry was well in the lead in the results of the Maine caucuses before the state party called it quits on their tabulations because of large turnout and slower than expected tabulation times. But based on his overwhelming lead with a substantial amount of the vote in, Kerry will win the Maine caucuses. The party resumes counting today.
In a written statement Sunday night, Kerry told Maine caucusgoers that he was "truly honored and humbled by the confidence that so many of you have shown to me in this contest."
Looking to the South
In light of these victories and as pundits and political observers continue to pontificate on the need for Democrats to have a presidential candidate who can win in the South, Kerry, who is lambasted by some critics as a Northeast liberal who cannot do just that, is leading the two Southerners in the Democratic field in the latest polls for both of Tuesday's southern primaries.
Recent polls show Kerry in the lead in both Tennessee and Virginia. A Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters conducted on Jan. 29 showed Kerry in the lead with 31 percent, retired Gen. Wesley Clark in second with 22 percent, and North Carolina Sen. John Edwards in third with 13 percent.
In Virginia, a Mason-Dixon poll of likely voters on Feb. 5 found Kerry again in the lead with 34 percent, but this time Edwards in second with 25 percent, and Clark in third with 14 percent.
Edwards and Clark, an Arkansas native, have both touted their Southern roots as important factors in their ability as the Democratic nominee to defeat President Bush in the general election.
Edwards' victory in South Carolina and Clark's victory in Oklahoma in the Feb. 3 primaries boosted each campaign's hopes that they would lay claim to being the so-called "Kerry alternative," in part because of their supposed chances to win Southern states against President Bush.
‘It’s My Back Yard’
At the Virginia Democratic Party's annual Jefferson Jackson Day fund-raiser on Saturday night, Edwards reiterated a common line he uses on the trail, assuring the party faithful there that "the South isn't George Bush's back yard. It's my back yard."
Nonetheless, Kerry has leads in both states, and if anything, Edwards and Clark may end up denying each other a strong second place finish in both contests on Tuesday and thus splitting their ability to lay claim to being the "Kerry alternative."
As for Dean, he is looking past these Southern contests and continuing to place his campaign's future on the results of the Feb. 17 primary in Wisconsin.
One recent poll does not have good news for that strategy. A Feb. 3 poll of likely voters by the University of Wisconsin showed Dean in fourth place, trailing the leader Kerry by almost 30 points.
After Tuesday, Kerry may have even better reason to feel good going into Wisconsin and the next round of contests if he can hold off both Clark and Edwards in these Southern primaries.