Democrats, Republicans Gear Up for Hillary '08

April 12, 2006 — -- It seems that Democrats and Republicans alike constantly talk about Sen. Hillary Clinton's campaign these days.

Not, of course, her Senate reelection campaign in New York, where she leads overwhelmingly in the polls and in raising funds and has drawn a little-known former mayor of Yonkers as her main opponent.

What has the chattering class chattering is Clinton's prospects as a presidential candidate. And though the former first lady will not make a final decision about a presidential bid until after her November election, she is clearly doing many of the things that anyone considering a national run has to do to keep the option open.

And in case anyone doubted that she is the perceived front-runner for the Democratic nomination -- even among Republicans, look no further than the three stern press releases issued by the White House, the Republican National Committee and House Speaker Dennis Haster, R-Ill., on Tuesday in an attempt to rebut a speech on economic policy she delivered in Chicago that evening.

"I think a return to fiscal discipline, living within our means is essential for our long-term health. It is also critical to whether or not we control our own destiny as a nation," said Clinton, attempting to present herself less like a red-meat partisan and more like a substantive pragmatist.

"Over the long-term and maybe the medium-term, red-ink fiscal policies will undermine America's competitiveness. We have to ask ourselves whether our taxing and spending policies are in line with our economic goals. Do we have the right priorities and values in the federal budget?" she asked rhetorically.

Democratic strategist Steve Elmendorf says policy pronouncements and speeches are exactly the kind of thing Clinton should be doing right now.

"I think anybody who wants to be considered a significant national candidate needs to be out getting into the debate on policy," says Elmendorf, who also served as a deputy campaign manager on John Kerry's presidential campaign.

"There's a tendency, sometimes particularly early in this process, when you are focused on money, Iowa endorsements, buzz among operatives and forget that a big part of becoming a presidential candidate is to have something significant to say," he said. "Do they have the stature, the substantive background to be a credible national leader?"

Unlike nearly all the other Democrats actively considering a run for the White House, Clinton has not traveled to New Hampshire -- location of the first Democratic primary -- since 1996. But, then again, she doesn't really have to.

"Right now, because of name recognition and familiarity, she is clearly the front-runner. That's just quantifiable," said Don Fowler, a former chairman of the Democratic National Committee.

"But it is almost impossible to predict how someone will do in a presidential campaign before the race actually gets going. We've had people who have come out of nowhere, like Jimmy Carter, or front-runners who have stumbled, like Ed Muskie," Fowler said. Still, he believes Clinton's political skills are almost unmatched in the party.

Many Democratic strategists believe the Democratic presidential primary may come down to Clinton and an alternative candidate who may be perceived as more electable in the November general election. Names often mentioned on the list of possible alternatives are Sen. John Edwards, D-N.C.; Gov. Mark Warner, D-Va.; Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind.; and Gov. Tom Vilsack, D-Iowa.

But Steve Elmendorf doesn't believe electability is a decisive factor for many Democratic primary voters. "There are only 1,000 people who are currently talking about that. It's very inside baseball. And there's a group that thinks she can get elected and a group that thinks she can't. I think it is part of their decision, but I don't think it is a big part."

Cash, grass roots and Advisers at the Ready

At the grass roots level this week, some Clinton supporters gathered Tuesday evening for their first official monthly MeetUp event -- an organizing tool used to great effect by Howard Dean's presidential campaign in 2003.

The event was organized by Peter Feddo, the leader of the Hillary Clinton for President Committee, an organization dedicated to supporting a Clinton presidential bid that is wholly unaffiliated with the senator

He said his goals for the first MeetUp were to "introduce guests to our movement, our goals, and get them to take action for Hillary and sign petitions to deliver to influential DNC members."

Attendees also went home with freshly made "Hillary for President" bumper stickers and signs, he said.

Clinton has surrounded herself with a top-notch team of advisers and staffers -- and there are many of them -- who all claim, as she does, to be solely focused on winning reelection this year and not looking ahead to 2008. But should she decide to run, she will have an extremely strong campaign infrastructure in place and ready to go.

Money is in no short supply for Clinton either. The last published financial reports through the end of 2005 indicated that she had $17 million in cash on hand -- far more than any other 2008 hopeful. And none of her potential Democratic opponents are expected to come remotely close to her when the new fundraising totals are announced later this week.

But Iraq Issue Looms Large

"She is the prohibitive front-runner for a whole host of reasons," said Elmendorf. However, he cautioned that Iraq could be a stumbling block in the 2008 nomination process.

"I think the Democratic Party in general in 2008 faces this problem, which I think will get resolved in the primary," he said.

Elmendorf said some, such as Clinton, believe the United States has to maintain a strong national security policy by maintaining a presence in Iraq, while others, such as Edwards and Sen. John Kerry, believe a strong national security policy is maintained by getting out of Iraq. "It's a significant division of opinion within the party," he said.