Parties Spin California Primary Results
June 7, 2006 — -- The competitive special election for the House seat once held by convicted and jailed former Republican Rep. Duke Cunningham in California left Republicans and Democrats in total spin mode.
Tuesday's victory by Republican surfer/lobbyist Brian Bilbray (in a very Republican district) over Democrat Francine Busby robbed the Democratic Party of a chance to claim the race and was a harbinger of things to come in November, when the battle for control of the House will be in full swing.
The Bilbray victory also allows the Republican Party to breathe a sigh of relief; the party avoided a crush of anticipated "Republicans Are Doomed in '06" media coverage.
Of course, it is truly impossible to assess what will happen in November by the results of a single contest for a House seat in Southern California, but there are some lessons to be learned.
First, the unfavorable political climate Republicans face -- acknowledged by leaders in both parties -- did not change overnight with Bilbray's victory.
However, Republicans reminded political observers and their Democratic opponents that institutional advantages, such as money and favorably drawn congressional districts, could overcome that sour environment the GOP faced -- at least in a district where President Bush got 55 percent of the vote in 2004.
"National Democrats must come to terms with the fact that momentum for the midterm elections will not materialize simply because they preordain it in the media or because they ask their special interest friends to buy it for them," said Rep. Tom Reynolds, R-N.Y., the chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee.
"The results in San Diego show that nothing has happened to alter the notion that House elections are about a choice between local personalities focused on local issues," Reynolds said.
The Democrats correctly point to the fact that Republicans were forced to spend roughly $5 million in a district President Bush won by 10 points in 2004 -- something the party will not be in a position to do in all such districts.
Of course all such districts were not formerly represented by a convict.
Democrats also note that Bilbray underperformed Bush's 2004 by six points, that Busby's last-minute gaffe stating illegal immigrants could vote without papers was costly, and that it was a very conservative district.
They also say they will pick up seats in bluer (more Democratic) quarters across the country in November.
"In an election cycle that is shaping up to be a 'change vs. the status quo' contest, Francine Busby has shown that a strong change message can make even former members of Congress vulnerable in deeply red Republican districts," said Rep. Rahm Emanuel, D-Ill., chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee.
A win is a win, though. Bilbray's victory shows that although Republican incumbents are running in a nasty national environment and although they are expected to lose some seats in November, the GOP still may hold onto its majorities in both chambers because of several baked-in-the-cake advantages.
Those include money, few retirements, safely drawn seats, and a party apparatus that is adept at turning campaigns to local issues and turning out voters through micro-targeting and an impressive volunteer/voter contact program.