Foley Fallout: GOP Fears Losing Grip on Congress
WASHINGTON, Oct. 6, 2006 — -- Republicans, already nervous over the prospect of losing control of the House, have now gotten increasingly edgy about the Senate, too. Several new polls have the GOP wondering if there is widespread fallout from the Capitol Hill sex scandal involving former Rep. Mark Foley and teenage pages.
The Rasmussen Reports survey found 61 percent of Americans believe Republicans have been "protecting Foley for several years." Only 21 percent believed the GOP leaders learned about Foley's problems last week.
A Time magazine poll showed that two-thirds of Americans who knew about the scandal believed the Republican leadership tried to cover it up. Just 16 percent approved of the way Republicans have handled it.
An Associated Press-Ipsos poll found that about half of likely voters said recent disclosures of corruption and scandal in Congress would be "very or extremely important" as they decide how to vote next month. By an almost two-to-one margin, they said Democrats would be better at fighting corruption.
Even more disturbing to the GOP may be today's front-page USA Today headline that blared "Race for Senate Control Tightens." Its poll with the Gallup organization showed the Democrats making competitive races in six key states: Tennessee, Virginia, Rhode Island, New Jersey, Missouri and Maryland.
Democrats need to gain six seats to take control of the Senate.
Not all the news was good for Democrats, though. The poll showed the New Jersey race between Democratic incumbent Robert Menendez and Republican challenger Tom Kean Jr. is a dead heat: Menendez holds a tiny three-point lead.
After the poll was released this morning, Kean made news that could also affect the race. He called on House Speaker Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., to resign in the aftermath of the Foley scandal. But several observers believed the Foley factor would not have a great influence on the outcome of the Nov. 7 elections for the House and Senate.
ABC News polling director Gary Langer is skeptical about the notion of a broad-based Foley effect. He said the media assume "that a big story will suddenly transform public attitudes."
"But there are plenty of cases where scandals -- in terms of their impact on public attitudes -- have added up to something less than meets the eye," he said.
And there is little hard evidence to show that the scandal has motivated voters to punish Republicans at the polls. The USA Today/Gallup poll, for example, did not ask about Foley. Also, the poll was completed only shortly after Foley resigned from the House.
Even some Democrats doubt the Foley scandal will help them much.
"At best, it reinforces the lead we already had. It also diverted Republicans from getting their message out to the voters," veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart told ABC News.
Hart said all his research indicated the overriding issue is still Iraq, and that voters are prepared to blame GOP congressional candidates for President Bush's war policy.
Hart and some other pollsters said that for months their research has reminded them of what they found before the 1994 election: a strong desire among voters to have new people in Washington. In 1994, that wish for change swept Democrats out of office and gave the GOP control of the House for the first time in 40 years.
Democrats hope voters are ready to oust Republicans this time. Hart claimed their chances are not just good but "superlative."
Still, Republicans believe they have enough time left before Election Day to regain the momentum they were starting to feel in September. And they hope the Foley mess soon recedes into the background.
The GOP can find some encouraging numbers in the polls. The Time poll, for example, shows an even split on whether Hastert should lose his job as speaker. And that poll was conducted before Hastert held a nationally televised news conference. Many Republicans and independent observers gave him good marks for the way he conducted himself.
Going into the weekend, Republicans were breathing easier -- a little easier.