Looking Past Election Day
Nov. 3, 2006 — -- With so much focus on Election Day itself, what happens after November 7?
In the week following the election, newly elected and incumbent members of the House and Senate will convene in Washington to begin to plan the organization of each party in each chamber of the 110th Congress. At stake are leadership positions, committee chairs and the identities both parties will project from Capitol Hill for the next two years.
This election has been largely defined by the unpopular Iraq war. If Democrats gain control of the House, they will indeed have one lever of power but no direct ability to change American strategy in Iraq. But if ballots on election nights sweep a large majority of Democrats into the House, the immediate discussion will be centered around how much the White House takes those results as a referendum on the War. Will the administration's policy and strategy begin to shift as a result?
The House
It has been widely speculated that the Democrats' best chance of regaining control lies in the House races. In that scenario, Rep. Nancy Pelosi (D-Calif.), currently the Democratic leader of the House, would likely become the first women speaker of the House.
Though a handful of Democrats are on record expressing reluctance to vote for her, the number is not enough to prevent her from becoming speaker. Her relationship with the president is poisonous at best, and much of the administration's ability to get anything done in the House for the next two years will be largely defined by how well they get along.
The battle for the post of majority leader in a Democratically controlled House would most likely be between Rep. Steny Hoyer (D-Md.) and Rep. John Murtha (D-Pa.). Sources believe that Hoyer can contain the Murtha insurgency, though it is marked as a battle to watch.
In line to take Hoyer's place as Democratic Whip is Rep. Jim Clyburn (D-S.C.), though there is talk that Rep. Rahm Emanuel (D-Ill.), in an environment in which House Democrats move from minority to majority, may make a run for the position. His ability to work his way into the No.3 slot in the House leadership depends on how big a Democratic wave comes ashore on election night. This is one of several battles in which Democrats will have to weigh the concerns of the Congressional Black Caucus, since Clyburn is African-American.
First 100 Hours
If elected speaker, Pelosi has spoken at length about what she would accomplish in the first 100 legislative hours of the 110th Congress in the arenas of pay-as-you-go budgeting, 9/11 Commission recommendations, minimum wage, student loans, prescription drugs, big oil, and expanding federally funded embryonic stem-cell research.
There is every reason to believe her items would pass the House quickly, though there is no way to know at this point how the Senate (or the White House) would deal with them.
House Democratic Committee Chair
The House Democratic Steering Committee will likely convene within a few days after the election. Rep. Rose DeLauro (D-Conn.) currently chairs that committee and will have held informal conversations with the members of various committees in advance of the Steering Committee gathering.
During the first organizing meeting on Thursday, Nov. 16, Chairwoman DeLauro will present her committee's recommendations to the caucus, which will go through -- committee by committee -- to vote on DeLauro's recommendations. This is the same process used by every committee except for the Rules Committee appointments and the Intelligence Committee appointments, which Pelosi gets to make at her discretion.
By the time the caucus breaks on Nov. 16 committee leadership should be known. And we should expect Republicans to highlight some of the more liberal Democrats expected to assume chairmanships.
Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-N.Y.), who is likely to become chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, hasn't completely ruled out any tax increases, but it doesn't appear likely that Democrats would propose any tax hikes without having the White House onboard. Rep. John Conyers (D-Mich.) has stifled his talk about impeachment proceedings as the expected chair of the Judiciary Committee. Rep. Alcee Hastings (D-Fla.) may be in line for Intelligence Committee chairman, which the Republican National Committee is already touting as a concern, since Hastings was impeached when he was a Florida judge.
Remember, if Democrats do win on Tuesday, they don't grab the reins of power until January. Therefore, there is no reason to expect the more aggressive oversight or any investigative activity to get under way in earnest until after the New Year.
If Republicans Keep Control
Even in the unlikely scenario that Republicans keep control of the House, current GOP leadership should worry about challenges from within the ranks.
Speaker Dennis Hastert's handling of Mark Foley's fall from grace may endanger his hold on his job. There are several (mostly younger) active members moving up the ranks like Rep. Eric Cantor, Rep. John Shadegg, Rep. Mike Pence, Rep. Joe Barton, and others who want to get back to the 1994 revolutionary mentality by reining in spending and trimming the size of government.
Sources say that with their fingerprints on the Foley matter, Hastert, Reps. John Boehner (R-Ohio) and Tom Reynolds (R-N.Y.) may all be in danger with some members of the Republican Conference who might feel the itch for a fresh team, though it is by no means a done deal that the old leadership would be out.
The pending release of the ethics committee's Foley investigation could also shake up the leadership.
House Republicans were scheduled to gather on Wednesday, Nov. 15 to sort this out, but now everything is on-hold until the election results are evaluated, at which point House Republicans will set a date to convene.
Legislatively, the president would likely push the House GOP to move forward on exploring reforming entitlement spending -- especially Medicaid and Medicare spending. President Bush has said the he is still committed to getting immigration reform through Congress -- one of his agenda items that might be more likely if Republicans lose control.
In the Senate
In the less likely scenario that Democrats take control of the Senate, Sen. Harry Reid (D-Nev.) would likely become majority leader, with Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) remaining in the No. 2 slot as majority whip.
Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.) is in line to replace the retiring Sen. Bill Frist as majority leader. Should Sen. Rick Santorum (R-Pa.) go down in defeat next week, the No. 2 slot for the Republicans is expected to go to either Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-Tenn.) or Sen. Trent Lott (R-Miss.), who has indicated that he would like to return to Senate leadership.
2008
For Democrats, a great night on Tuesday means that presidential aspirants from both sides of the aisle are likely to announce exploratory committees or full-blown presidential campaigns in the next few weeks (or days!). Republicans are likely to recast themselves as visionaries ready to save the party by taking it in new directions. Democrats will want to ride the party's momentum. And -- to the dismay of the White House -- candidates of both parties will want to step into the perceived vacuum left by the advanced lame-duck status of the Bush presidency.