Democratic Win Now Boosts Republican Chances in '08

Nov. 13, 2006 — -- As House Speaker-elect Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif., and Senate Majority Leader-elect Harry Reid, D-Nev., measure the drapes for their new suites, all eyes turn toward the 2008 election.

Will the 2006 Democratic sweep presage a Democratic victory in 2008, or was the 2006 election merely a referendum on President Bush's Iraq policy and congressional Republican incompetence?

Will President Bush's current unpopularity continue to dog the GOP? Can Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., ride the wave of 2006 into the White House, or will she face a serious challenger from within her own party?

Do the Republicans have a bona fide contender waiting in the wings?

If anything, the Democratic victory boosts Republican chances for 2008. Democrats have reason to celebrate their return to majority status, but there are dramatic silver linings for the Republican Party.

President Bush's popularity will begin to rise as soon as majority Democrats begin obstructing his agenda.

Republicans gained seats in the House and Senate in 2002 and 2004 because Americans perceived that Democrats were preventing fair hearings on President Bush's judicial nominees, blocking Social Security reform, preventing a constitutional amendment to protect marriage, and undermining the war effort.

When Republicans gained a 10-seat majority in the Senate and a 30-seat majority in the House in 2004, however, Americans expected results.

President Bush could not credibly claim that congressional catalepsy was the fault of Democrats, especially on issues like immigration reform. When the Republican-controlled Congress failed to act, Americans rightly took their frustration out on congressional Republicans.

With the Democrats back in power, President Bush can follow in the footsteps of another unpopular president: Harry Truman.

In 1946, Republicans ended a 14-year era of Democratic congressional domination by taking both the House and Senate.

Two years later, Truman campaigned against the Republican "do-nothing" Congress, pulling out a close election against New Yorker Thomas Dewey and leading the Democrats back to the congressional majority.

Ben Shapiro is a nationally syndicated columnist and contributor to Townhall.com as well as of the recently published "Porn Generation: How Social Liberalism Is Corrupting Our Future" and national best-seller "Brainwashed: How Universities Indoctrinate America's Youth."

As President Bush exploits the Democratic Congress, congressional Republicans can work on their cohesiveness.

The Republican majority was characterized by its schizophrenia; Republicans disagreed internally on tax cuts, gay marriage, Social Security, flag-burning, immigration and the handling of the war on terror.

While Republicans tried to cobble together a governing coalition, Democrats moved drastically to the left in an attempt to shore up their own fault lines.

Democrats were successful; Republicans will follow suit. This, too, bodes ill for the Democratic Party in 2008 -- Democrats could only find unity in a more radical brand of liberalism, while Republicans will find unity in more mainstream values.

What of the 2008 Republican presidential nominee? Here the Democrats find new hope. No Republican nominee has won the presidency without significant precampaign name recognition since Warren G. Harding in 1920.

Currently, there are only three Republicans with significant name recognition campaigning for the presidency: Mayor Rudy Giuliani; Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz.; and former House Speaker Newt Gingrich, R-Ga.

All three have serious drawbacks. Giuliani and McCain will have difficulty in Republican primaries; Giuliani is too socially liberal, and McCain has irked too many on the Republican side of the aisle with his grandstanding, particularly on campaign-finance reform, and President Bush's judicial nominees.

Gingrich is widely perceived as too hard-line for the American public after his controversial tenure as speaker of the House; he also has personal issues many Republicans find troublesome.

While Republicans debate over their nominee, Democrats mobilize around theirs.

Clinton is a virtual lock to win the Democratic nomination. Clinton has moderated herself dramatically during her tenure in the Senate.

Though she has undoubtedly alienated some of her more radical constituents, her history demonstrates that she is a true believer in 1960s-era liberalism, and that plus her enormous war chest will be enough to carry her easily through the primaries.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., is a stalking horse for Clinton; he is running for the VP slot.

Former senator and vice presidential candidate John Edwards would have been a viable candidate had the Democrats not won back the Senate. With the Democratic victory, Clinton will almost certainly grab a Senate leadership position, granting her added legitimacy.

Ben Shapiro is a nationally syndicated columnist and contributor to Townhall.com as well as of the recently published "Porn Generation: How Social Liberalism Is Corrupting Our Future" and national best-seller "Brainwashed: How Universities Indoctrinate America's Youth."

If the Republicans hope that 2008 is a replay of 1948 in reverse, Democrats hope that 2008 looks more like a reverse of 1920.

In 1918, unpopular wartime president Woodrow Wilson led his party to defeat in the congressional elections. Upon Wilson's retirement, the Democrats split over their 1920 presidential nominee.

Republicans ran on an anti-Wilson platform, grabbing the presidency and solidifying their congressional hold for the next 12 years.

Republicans can learn from 1920; they must solidify around a candidate if they hope to maintain the presidency and regain the congressional majority.

Democrats can learn from 1948; they must use their current congressional majority to act in the interests of the American people. With the Democrats eager to spend their political capital on investigations, investigations and more investigations, Republicans are a safer bet in 2008.

Ben Shapiro is a nationally syndicated columnist and contributor to Townhall.com as well as of the recently published "Porn Generation: How Social Liberalism Is Corrupting Our Future" and national best-seller "Brainwashed: How Universities Indoctrinate America's Youth."