Two Years From Election, Looking at Early Polls

Jan. 17, 2007 — -- With exploratory committees in the making and the big names clearing their throats, it's a fine time to check your scorecard for the 2008 election. But don't worry too much about who's ahead.

There are plenty of pre-election polls to look at, and they are what they are. Good polls provide a reliable assessment of current preferences. But how these initial preferences play out is another question -- and there's long time yet for this race to run.

When it comes to the latest presidential explorer, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., for instance, one in three Americans haven't yet formed a basic opinion of the man. Only a quarter have a strongly held opinion of him. And most -- 56 percent in an ABC News/Washington Post poll last month -- say they have little or no idea of his stances on the issues. Clearly, further introduction is needed.

In that poll, Obama placed a creditable but distant second to Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y. Among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, 17 percent supported his nomination while 39 percent supported Clinton's.

But more interesting than the horse race are the dynamics that shape it. Personal favorability is one factor. Obama's had good buzz ever since his very well received address to the Democratic National Convention in 2004, and he's made the most of it. What people in his party know of him, they like. Of those that are Democratic-leaning in the ABC/Post poll, 57 percent viewed him favorably overall.

A closer look suggests that Obama's a bit of a darling among liberals: Seventy-one percent of liberal-leaning Democrats like him, while considerably fewer moderate Democrats, 54 percent, go along. That gives the better-known Clinton two advantages. First, she's better liked overall, with a whopping 79 percent favorable rating in her party. Second, her rating is more broadly based ideologically, with much less division in her favorable ratings from liberal Democrats and their moderate brethren.

Yet Clinton engenders sexual divisions within her party -- she's supported by 49 percent of women and 29 percent of men -- and she remains a lightning rod to those across the aisle. Seventy percent of leaned Republicans (and 77 percent of conservative leaned Republicans) view her unfavorably. Obama is vastly less unpopular among leaned Republicans -- 32 percent rate him unfavorably, with, again, many more having no opinion -- which could make electability, in terms of crossover appeal, an argument in the Democratic contest.

Also Obama's race doesn't look like an issue. As many Americans say they're more likely than not likely to vote for a black candidate. (It's the same for a woman candidate. But in a hurdle for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, being a Mormon does seem to have the potential to cost votes.)

This ABC/Post poll is based on a national sample; while it reliably captures national sentiment, individual state polls -- where the primaries and caucuses perform their winnowing role -- are worth a separate look, and in some cases an extra layer of caution.

In Iowa, two horse race polls last month, just three days apart, had very different results. One had Obama tied for first with 22 percent support; the other had him in fourth place with 10 percent support. (And they were 21 points apart on Clinton.) Polling methodology matters, and the Iowa caucuses in particular are devilishly hard (and expensive) to poll reliably, given their extremely low turnout. It's advisable to take Iowa polls with a shaker of salt.

In New Hampshire, polls have placed Obama competitively, in or near the leader's spot. On the one hand, New Hampshire primary voters do have a predilection for supporting insurgent candidates. On the other hand, the state long ago abdicated its crown as kingmaker, as the primary that had to be won in order to win the presidency. Bill Clinton snapped that streak in 1992, followed by George W. Bush in 2000.

Iowa has an even worse predictive history. Nonetheless these states get to go first, and they get the attention that going first produces. It doesn't take a poll to know this: Obama will need a good pair of warm boots.