McCain Hinges White House Bid on Iraq

April 11, 2007— -- Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., addressed potential future soldiers -- and casualties -- of the Iraq War at the Virginia Military Institute Wednesday, warning them that his losing the presidency because of his support for the war means nothing compared with the international repercussions if U.S. troops withdraw prematurely.

McCain cautioned that the consequences of U.S. troops leaving too soon could include a genocide in Iraq worse than in Rwanda, and a terrorist strike against the United States worse than Sept. 11.

"The judgment of history should be the approval we seek," the GOP presidential hopeful said, "not the temporary favor of the latest public opinion poll."

Conservative columnist and ABC News consultant George F. Will said, "There's obviously a certain poignancy in the fact and drama in the fact that John McCain is acting presidential, looking at the long-term and the difficult questions, and in the process, may be hurting his chances of becoming president."

McCain's Central Struggle

Characterizing the battle in Iraq as central to the struggle against Islamic extremism and critical to the security of the United States, McCain reiterated his support for the man leading the effort, Gen. David Petraeus, and the plan that he is executing, which requires an escalation in U.S. troop levels.

But McCain insisted that success in Iraq would not be easy.

"We, who are willing to support this new strategy and give Gen. Petraeus the time and support he needs, have chosen a hard road," McCain said. "But it is the right road. It is necessary and just."

A senior aide to the senator said that McCain believes that the American people have not been told the consequences of ending the war right now in any sustained and comprehensive way. "They are several and they are severe," the aide said.

McCain's campaign to educate the American people as to those consequences begins today, the aide said.

Consequences of Withdrawal

McCain emphasized that if U.S. troops withdraw prematurely, the Iraqi government would collapse, drawing in Iraq's neighbors -- Egypt, Iran, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, Syria and Turkey.

"This uncertain swirl of events could cause the region to explode and foreclose the opportunity for millions of Muslims and their children to achieve freedom," McCain said.

"We could face a terrible choice: Watch the region burn, the price of oil escalate dramatically and our economy decline, watch the terrorists establish new base camps or send American troops back to Iraq, with the odds against our success much worse than they are today," McCain concluded.

He added that "the potential for genocide and ethnic cleansing in Iraq is even worse" than in Rwanda if troops leave too soon, "and the potential consequence of allowing terrorists sanctuary in Iraq is another 9/11 -- or worse."

Will observed, "During Vietnam when John McCain served, we had an anti-war movement. Today, we have an anti-war country. And he is trying to change the country's mind. He knows he's in the minority." Will said McCain today made the case "more clearly than the president."

Consequences on the Trail

Though the war remains popular with Republican primary voters, McCain's strong support for the war in Iraq has indisputably hurt his presidential campaign, which has suffered from disappointing fundraising and sagging poll numbers, indicating a lack of enthusiasm for his candidacy.

Originally scheduled to declare his candidacy Wednesday, McCain changed plans after he was criticized for overselling security in a Baghdad market last week while protected by a platoon's worth of troops and three helicopters.

In the first of three policy speeches, McCain pointed out early signs of success under the new Iraq "surge" strategy and listed several he thought were important.

But he also alluded to concerns that he had been too optimistic about progress on the ground in recent weeks.

"I understand the damage false optimism does to public patience and support," he said.

Blame Game Pits McCain vs. Congress and Dems vs. McCain

McCain took pointed aim at congressional Democrats who, he said, prevented Petraeus from taking necessary action in Iraq by passing legislation requiring that U.S. troops begin withdrawing from Iraq prematurely.

"Before I left for Iraq, I watched with regret as the House of Representatives voted to deny our troops the support necessary to carry out their new mission.  Democratic leaders smiled and cheered as the last votes were counted.  What were they celebrating?  Defeat? Surrender?  In Iraq, only our enemies were cheering."

But in an interview with ABC News, Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., fired back. "One of the misconceptions, that both the president and John McCain may be operating under, is that we want to see failure in Iraq," Obama said. "We don't want to see failure in Iraq. The problem is, their failed policies have led us to a situation where we don't have good options. We have bad options and worse options."

Obama added, "The question is, are we going to continue to invest over $100 billion dollars a year in Iraq? Are we going to see thousands of young American soldiers die in Iraq? Thousands more maimed, if we're not fundamentally changing the political dynamic?"

McCain, 70, addressed approximately 600 cadets on the campus of the nation's oldest state-run military college. They were called to attention as he entered the room, and sat somberly throughout his address, interrupting for applause only once when McCain recognized VMI cadets who have already served in Iraq.

"You know, better than most, whether our cause is just, necessary and winnable. You have risked much to make it so."

McCain said that as a critic of the way the war was originally fought, and as a supporter of the new strategy, he had an "obligation to encourage Americans to give it a chance to succeed."

Jake Tapper reported from Capitol Hill and Bret Hovell reported from Lexington, Va. Avery Miller contributed to this report.