Bush Bashing May Not Win White House

May 22, 2007 — -- Political consultants in all parties often say the most powerful political words in the English language are "time for a change." Those in power hate the phrase; those seeking power love it.

With President Bush's popularity stagnating at low levels, whoever wins the GOP presidential nomination may need to put some distance between himself and Bush.

Changing Course

Veteran Democratic pollster Peter Hart met with a focus group comprised of independents, Democrats and Republicans in Towson, Md., Monday night.

He found that only about one in four wanted the next president to continue in the same direction as Bush. Hart said this election appears to be different from most.

In the past, said Hart, voters wanted a specific agenda. This time, he said, the one big issue is the Iraq War and how to end it.

But beyond that he found they care most, at least for the moment, not about detailed positions on issues such as health care or education, but "about bringing a mood, a spirit, a different outlook."

Dems Not a Lock

Still Hart and other political pros say Democrats should not be overconfident.

They point to the 1976 race as a reminder that, although a candidate can be damaged through association with an unpopular president, Americans will take a second look before voting.

In that election, President Gerald Ford came surprisingly close to winning despite several millstones around his neck: the disgraced President Richard Nixon had chosen him for vice president, Ford granted Nixon a pardon and the national economy was in trouble.

Despite all that, Ford won almost 50 percent of the vote because many Americans liked and admired him.

His press secretary, Ron Nessen, said voters realized that Ford was not Nixon, that he did not lust for power.

Nessen, now at the Brookings Institution, said, "It's character that always emerges and defines the presidency."

Bush Bashing vs. Competency

Hart also found that voters are concerned about competency, especially when it comes to national security.

At the Towson meeting he heard widespread enthusiasm for former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani because of his leadership after the Sept. 11 attacks.

Hart said those voters "did not hold it against Giuliani because he is in President Bush's party."

This is a signal, said Hart, that the Democratic nominee next year needs to instill confidence in his or her ability to deal with domestic terrorism.

And this could be a challenge for Democrats, he said, if there is a serious incident of terrorism before the November 2008 election.

Norm Ornstein of the American Enterprise Institute added that Democrats "have historically had a lot of baggage when it comes to national security…voters have usually had more confidence in Republicans."

That is true, although recent polls show Democrats have improved their standing on security issues.

For now Democrats have the luxury of knowing that bashing Bush will likely help their cause.

For Republican presidential candidates, it is still too early for them to seek much separation from him. GOP primary voters are not likely to reward a candidate who is openly hostile to the president. But, after the party chooses its nominee, the winner will have more latitude.

Ron Nessen said, "The GOP may not put up TV ads saying, 'Our guy is NOT George Bush,' but that will be the subliminal message."

A Republican political consultant, who does not want to be identified, agrees, saying, "The nominee will have to walk a fine line and cannot anger our conservative base, but he can still try to point to a new direction."

The consultant said that although there will still be voter anger next year about Iraq, the war itself may be winding down at that point. "Our candidate may then be able to change the national conversation to other issues such as tax cuts and domestic security."

Norm Ornstein warned Democrats: "In the end this election is going to come down to two candidates, neither of whom is going to be named Bush or Cheney."

Ornstein and others say that although the Republican nominee may have difficulty presenting himself as an agent of change, he can do it.

Peter Hart said his research shows that Giuliani might succeed in offering change.

As for former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney, Hart found voters do not know much about him, but are keeping an open mind.

Voters seem split on Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., he said, because they are puzzled by the contrast between his fresh approach in the 2000 campaign and the more conventional face he has presented in 2007.

Ornstein thinks Democrats might have the most to fear from former Tennessee Sen. Fred Thompson if he enters the race.

"If you get a candidate out there like Thompson who is comfortable with himself, comfortable in his own skin, with a good sense of humor, a feeling that the guy is not a rigid ideologue who is going to get us in some disaster," Ornstein told ABC News, "that becomes a candidate who can win even if he carries the label of Republican."