Iraq Dominates as Dems Head Into Second Debate

June 1, 2007 — -- Since the Democratic candidates last met on a debate stage, Congress gave President Bush his war-funding bill, lawmakers announced an immigration deal, two Hillary Clinton biographies have been published and the country learned that John Edwards earned enough from a hedge fund to pay for many, many $400 haircuts.

But Sunday's Democratic presidential debate in New Hampshire appears likely to turn on familiar themes for Democrats, including one overarching issue that figures to dominate candidates' exchanges for the second consecutive presidential campaign: Iraq.

Iraq Dominates Political Discussion

"It was the major issue four years ago, and it will be now," said Erik Smith, a Democratic consultant who was a top adviser to Rep. Richard Gephardt, D-Mo., in 2004 but is not affiliated with any 2008 candidate. "What's more than dominate? It's going to consume it. People care about issues like health care, but Iraq is driving people more than anything."

If history is a guide, the eight Democrats who will share the stage in Manchester Sunday evening will be more ready to tangle with each other than they were in their first exchange of the campaign, the mostly gentle April 26 debate in South Carolina.

Top-tier candidates mostly want to avoid stumbles, while sharpening their differences with others in the field and delivering a few lines that voters might remember.

For the second tier, this debate is a valuable opportunity to make a name with just four weeks left in the vital second quarter fundraising period -- where results could set campaign dynamics for months to come.

"It's a long summer where a lot of people won't be paying attention to the race at all," said Dante Scala, a politics professor at St. Anselm College, which is hosting Sunday's debate. "The folks in the second tier have got to find a way to engage the first tier, and make it seem like they're actually competing with them. Why not throw some caution to the wind and go after them?"

The Expectations Game

Every candidate goes into the debate with a different set of goals and expectations.

Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton, D-N.Y., will walk on the stage with the front-runner's burden of wanting to avoid any gaffes -- and will probably face tough questions about her decision to vote against war funding when she previously indicated she wouldn't cut off funds for the troops.

Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill., has just unveiled his first major policy proposal, and can expect to answer why his health care plan doesn't mandate coverage for all Americans, as Edwards' plan does.

He'll also seek to erase memories of his performance in the first debate, when his initial response to how he would react to a terrorist attack focused on emergency response instead of retaliation.

Former Sen. John Edwards has been beset by questions about his personal wealth in recent weeks, given his campaign's focus on eradicating poverty.

He could also be asked about his erroneous comment earlier this week that he read the classified National Intelligence Estimate on Iraq's weapons capabilities; his campaign later acknowledge that he never did.

"Clinton's not going to wow anybody, but she needs to be a steady, calm presence on stage, and she'll be fine," Scala said. "Obama's the one who has some proving to do, in terms of being ready for all of this. Edwards has the most to worry about slippage [in the polls] at this point."

At the first debate, the only second-tier candidate to make headlines for himself was former Alaska Sen. Mike Gravel, though his comic-relief moments didn't give him any measurable campaign bounce.

Gravel and Rep. Dennis Kucinich, D-Ohio, could again make plays for the highlight reels, though they remain long shots.

New Mexico Gov. Bill Richardson will be looking for a breakthrough moment, with the latest polls showing him running fourth in the field.

Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., who has been criticizing his rivals over the Iraq War and their plans to address global warming, can be expected to continue those pushes on stage.

Another second-tier candidate with a clear opportunity to distinguish himself is Sen. Joseph Biden, D-Del., who impressed many observers in the South Carolina debate.

Alone among the Democratic contenders, Biden voted for war funding last week, describing his stance as the responsible approach given the fact that Democrats lacked the votes to force the president to accept a timetable for troop withdrawal.

Biden is also the only candidate to have read the National Intelligence Estimate that was available to all senators in October 2002, before Congress voted to authorize a war in Iraq.

He has also made much of the fact that, so far, he is the only major candidate to accept an invitation to an Iraq-only debate next week in Washington. (Gravel and Kucinich are also due to attend.)

"It is an opportunity for us," said Larry Rasky, a Biden spokesman, in reference to Sunday's debate. "We were going to focus on Iraq anyway [even without the vote on war funding]. He's not going to play games with his responsibilities as a senator -- it's not who he is."

Opportunity Knocks

Like any early debate, this one will be watched for a few key moments, with only a handful of exchanges likely to be remembered for more than a few hours, Smith said.

"This is one of the few opportunities that candidates who don't get a lot of media attention have to measure themselves against the so-called front-runners," he said. "These are the opportunities you need to take advantage of."

ABC News' senior political reporter Rick Klein, author of "The Note," will be live blogging during Sunday's debate. Join the conversation at 7:00 p.m. EDT by clicking here.

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