Giuliani, McCain to Skip Early Test of Strength in Iowa

June 6, 2007 — -- Ending months of speculation, officials of the presidential campaign of former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani announced Wednesday that their candidate would not be participating in the Iowa straw poll, proving once again that their vision of how Giuliani would win his party's presidential nomination is one that defies history.

The decision was felt almost immediately, with the campaign of one of his chief rivals, Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., announcing Wednesday that it would follow Giuliani's lead and not participate in the straw poll.

"I'm putting my faith in Iowa caucus-goers that they'll base their decision on the candidate's record rather than who participates in a nonbinding straw poll in August," said campaign manager Mike DuHaime on a conference call with reporters.

DuHaime estimated that participation in the straw poll might cost as much as $3 million per candidate and insisted, "We are going to take all the resources that were budgeted toward the straw poll, and we are going to use them to win the caucus in January."

Giuliani Will Compete in Iowa

DuHaime dismissed speculation that this move means Giuliani cannot win Iowa, saying such a notion is part of the same conventional wisdom that pooh-poohed Giuliani's chances to begin with, given his liberal positions on social issues.

"Everything has been born out that that kind of conventional wisdom is just false," DuHaime said, arguing that "this type of campaign has never been waged before."

Giuliani leads in national polls and is essentially tied with McCain, among Republicans in the Hawkeye State.

But Iowa Republicans are, as a whole, more conservative than the former New York mayor on a wide variety of social issues, including gun control, abortion and gay rights, and many observers doubt in the end that Giuliani can win enough of their support.

Early Poll Often Frames Race

In 1999, McCain called the straw poll a "sham" that contributes to "the pessimism and the cynicism" Americans feel about the role of money in politics.

Until Wednesday, the Arizona Senator was planning on competing in the straw poll this time around.

But hours after Giuliani's decision, McCain campaign manager Terry Nelson announced, "In light of today's news, it is clear that the Ames Straw Poll will not be a meaningful test of the leading candidates' organizational abilities, so we have decided to forgo our participation in the event."

Wedneday's events were prefaced with the comments last month by Giuliani's chief Iowa consultant, losing 2006 gubernatorial candidate and former Rep. Jim Nussle, R-Iowa, that the Straw Poll was "meaningless" and "kind of an 'American Idol'-style circus."

On Wednesday's conference call, Nussle insisted he did not mean that completely as an insult.

"I like the circus," Nussle said. "Circuses are fun."

Nussle argued, however, that "the caucus is really the prize here … the straw poll is a fundraiser; it's a lot of fun, it's an exciting event."

But, he cautioned, "the straw poll could take away from Iowa's importance if we're not careful. It is not a serious event."

Nussle noted that candidates pay money to attend the event, and he argued that attendees are generally limited to the 75-100 mile radius around Ames, so it does not represent a cross-section of the state.

The Iowa caucuses do not necessarily demonstrate that a candidate will win the state's delegates, but they can signify a candidate's strength or weakness.

Then-Gov. George W. Bush won the straw poll in 1999, and went on to win the Iowa caucuses.

In 1988, the Rev. Pat Robertson, the straw poll winner in 1987, came in second behind former Sen. Bob Dole of Kansas in the Iowa caucuses.

Of more significance, however, was the third place showing in the straw poll by George H.W. Bush, who was vice president at the time, and later came in third at the 1988 caucuses.

Ultimately, of course, the elder Bush went on to win both the nomination and the presidency.