Candidates Find Support in Surprising Places

June 11, 2007 — -- Who's the preferred presidential pick for Republicans who say the Iraq war was a mistake?

Answer: Arizona Sen. John McCain, the war's chief defender.

Which candidate does disproportionately well among the wealthiest Democrats?

Answer: Former North Carolina senator John Edwards, the populist who's focusing on poverty and promising, among other things, to roll back tax cuts for the affluent.

A USA TODAY analysis of Americans' preferences in the 2008 presidential race -- based on more than 7,000 interviews in USA TODAY/Gallup Polls taken this year -- finds some surprising sides to the appeal of the four contenders in each party who top the polls. The study provides intriguing clues about whose messages are breaking through and what issues matter most.

It also shows that the two candidates who generally have led in nationwide surveys for the nominations -- former New York mayor Rudy Giuliani and New York Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton -- face opposite challenges in their bids for the White House. Their portraits of support help explain why the Republican nomination contest remains unsettled and why some Democrats fear they risk losing the White House despite a promising political climate.

Giuliani has forged a coalition that's unusual for a Republican and potentially potent in a general election. But it raises questions whether he can first survive the party's primaries and caucuses. On the other hand, Clinton's support is anchored in the Democratic base. But she shows limited appeal to the independents who decide close presidential elections.

The quandary for Giuliani, Clinton and the rest: Presidential candidates typically have to win support from more ideological partisans in the primaries, then pivot to appeal to middle-of-the-road voters in the general election. "They're completely different ballgames," says GOP pollster Whit Ayres, who isn't affiliated with a campaign.

Giuliani's support is unlike that of any Republican nominee in at least a generation. He fares better with moderates than conservatives, with more secular voters than more religious ones, and with younger people than older ones. He draws slightly more support from women than men.

That's left what GOP strategist Scott Reed calls "a void" for a more traditional and conservative contender, especially in states with early contests such as Iowa and South Carolina, where evangelical Christians are a political force. Former Tennessee senator and actor Fred Thompson, plotting a late entry into the campaign, sees an opening there.

Clinton, in contrast, is a classic Democrat. She does best among women, Democratic partisans, older voters, and less-educated and lower-income workers. She trumps Illinois Sen. Barack Obama, her top rival and an African-American, among blacks.

That mix of support could help her win Democratic primaries, but she faces hurdles in the general election. She draws only 1 in 4 independents who "lean" Democratic, for example, and 1 in 4 white men in the Democratic sample.

ISO white men

Without stronger support among white men, who made up 36% of the electorate in 2004, "it becomes very difficult for a Democrat to win the White House," says political scientist Merle Black of Emory University, co-author of Divided America: The Ferocious Power Struggle in American Politics.

USA TODAY combined surveys to create a sample large enough to analyze the common demographic characteristics and political views of each candidate's support. Included were Democratic polls taken since January and Republican polls taken since March, when Thompson was added the list of potential GOP contenders.

Among the findings:•One-third of McCain's supporters say the Iraq invasion was a mistake, the most of any Republican candidate, even though McCain has taken the lead in defending the war and supporting the rise in U.S. troop levels this year. On the GOP side, McCain also gets the most support from those who disapprove of President Bush.

"That's a hangover from 2000," Ayres says, when McCain cast himself as a reformist alternative to Bush in GOP primaries. Memories of that battle — and of McCain's maverick stands to overhaul immigration laws and restrict campaign contributions — continue to complicate the Arizona senator's efforts to cultivate support among establishment Republicans.

•Obama gets one-fourth of his support from African-Americans, who provide Clinton one-fifth of her support. However, looking at black voters as a group, Clinton leads: 35% of blacks support Obama, while 41% support Clinton — one of her strongest showings among any demographic group.

The Illinois senator has strong appeal to independents and higher-income voters. He ties Clinton among those who have a college degree or more. But he trails her by a yawning 21 percentage points among those with a high school education or less. Ed Sarpolus, an independent pollster based in Michigan, says Obama will have to do better among blue-collar workers, black and white, to prevail in Democratic primaries.

•Former Massachusetts governor Mitt Romney, who has faced questions about whether his Mormon faith would make it difficult for him to appeal to evangelical Christians, gets more than half of his support from those who attend religious services at least weekly. That's nearly 10 points higher than any other candidate in either party.

Mormons are an important part of his base. They make up just 2% of Republicans but comprise 21% of his supporters.

•Edwards draws support from groups that Democrats often struggle to reach: men, whites, moderates and the well-to-do. One-third of his supporters make more than $75,000 a year, the highest percentage of any Democrat. Despite efforts to cultivate labor-union members and increasingly pointed opposition to the Iraq war, Edwards shows limited appeal to lower-income workers and liberals. He does no better among anti-war voters than the other Democrats.

•Former vice president Al Gore — who continues to score in surveys even though he hasn't entered the race (or ruled out running) — gets one-quarter of his support from those under 30, the highest of any candidate in either field. Gore, 59 and a former Tennessee senator, draws disproportionately strong support from Pacific Coast states.

Surveys understate Gore's appeal because many Democrats assume he's not running, Sarpolus says. "If he ends up campaigning, you'll end up seeing different numbers," he predicts.

Interviews with some of those who were surveyed underscore how much the race could change in the coming months.

"I need to find someone I feel is genuinely concerned with America and taking care of us as well as how people view us in the world," says Stefanie Feek, 38, a stay-at-home mom with two daughters from Winter Park, Colo. She says she's "up in the air" but probably will support Obama.

'Not worth a hill of beans'

John Holsinger, 58, a welder from St. Marys, Ohio, is unimpressed with his choices so far. "Ninety percent of them ain't worth a hill of beans," he says. Still, he has no doubts about his top issue: gun rights. "I squirrel hunt; I rabbit hunt; I deer hunt and so do my two boys," he says. "Somebody best not come to my house and ask for my guns."

Elizabeth Barr, a 75-year-old retiree from The Villages, in central Florida, is inclined to support Romney but also is considering Giuliani. "It's too early to make a decision," she says. "There's a lot to be said on both sides yet to come."

Even so, most voters are beginning to tune in to the campaign. Two-thirds told an ABC News poll last month they were paying very or somewhat close attention to it.