Never Too Early for the Veepstakes Race

June 12, 2007 — -- The race for the presidency? Too close to call, with nearly 20 candidates jostling for position a year-and-a-half before Election Day 2008.

But the race for the vice presidency already has its odds-on favorites, according to the pundits and party activists who like to gnaw on such matters at this ridiculously early date.

Alright, so some of the top choices are technically running for president at the moment. That hasn't stopped the "veepstakes" from kicking into high gear a full seven months before the first primary votes will be cast -- and a year before any nominees are likely to choose their running mates.

"The whole thing is insanely early, so it's fitting that this sort of speculation would be this early as well," said Steve Elmendorf, a Democratic political consultant.

After three strong debate performances, Republicans have quickly turned their attention to Mike Huckabee, the former governor of Arkansas. Aside from the fact that he's mired in the low single digits, he's got the whole package -- funny, friendly, devout, intelligent -- the perfect balance to a fast-talking New Yorker, a veteran Arizona senator, or a Mormon from Massachusetts, all of whom need conservative street cred.

Meanwhile, many Democrats are ready to inaugurate Vice President Bill Richardson, the governor of New Mexico. He's a great campaigner, has the deepest resume in the field and is a fluent Spanish speaker who can reach out to Latinos -- the ideal way to counter a sometimes chilly former first lady, a first-term senator from Illinois with no foreign-policy experience or a populist former senator from North Carolina.

Being mentioned as a good No. 2 is irksome for candidates who want to be No. 1. The praise can be flattering, but there's a self-fulfilling quality to a candidate being told he'd make the ideal understudy, since it means he's not being considered for the leading role.

The label of running for second fiddle dogged Edwards during the 2004 primaries. Party activists and reporters saw the youthful, first-term senator's sunny campaign style and his studied refusal to attack other Democrats and concluded that he was really in the race to be considered for the second spot.

Edwards said repeatedly in early 2004 that he had no interest in being vice president, but he gladly accepted a spot as Sen. John Kerry's, D-Mass., running mate anyway. (This time around, his readiness to attack the other Democrats running for president has quieted talk of him as vice president, for better or worse.)

Scott Reed, a GOP consultant who ran Bob Dole's 1996 presidential campaign, called it "demoralizing" for a candidate like Huckabee to be discussed as a perfect vice presidential nominee. But he cautioned against reading too much into the early speculation, since the final decision will rest with the presidential nominees alone.

"The fact is nobody knows what they need for vice president until they go through the process -- do you need regional balancing, some ideological balancing, something else?" Reed said. "It's all a little premature."

The talk of Huckabee filling out someone else's ticket clearly annoys the former Arkansas governor, who insists that he's interested only in the top job. Asked Sunday on CNN about the buzz that has him running for vice president, Huckabee said he's glad he's getting a positive reception and is looking forward to "moving up the ladder."

"If they think I'm vice president by June, I think by January they'll think I ought to be president, and that's where I'm headed," he said.

This year also features no shortage of noncandidates who are rumored to be auditioning for vice president. Former Iowa Gov. Tom Vilsack dropped out of the presidential race and is now working aggressively for Sen. Hillary Clinton, D-N.Y., stoking speculation that a man who was on Kerry's short list in 2004 will re-emerge if front-runner Clinton gets the nomination.

Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty is playing a similar role for the campaign of Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., and the speculation about a team-in-the-making is helped by the fact that that Pawlenty is 24 years younger than the 70-year-old McCain.

Two red-state Democrats who chose not to run for president in 2008 -- former Virginia Gov. Mark Warner and Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind. -- are also prominently mentioned as potential running mates for any number of candidates. And Sen. Joe Biden, D-Del., who is running for president but lagging behind the front-runners, could also get a look from a candidate who wants a Washington veteran for a teammate.

The speculation about running mates could actually shape the presidential race, Elmendorf said. The buzz surrounding candidates like Huckabee and Richardson could convince them to tone down their attacks on front-running candidates, if they decide their best chances are as vice presidential nominees instead of topping the ticket.

"If you're actually running, you're going to reach a decision point at some point: Am I trying to be president, or am I going to maintain my options to be vice president?" Elmendorf said.

As for a Democratic dream team -- a Clinton-Obama ticket? Not likely, Elmendorf said. Two blue-state senators with Illinois roots may not want to ask voters to break several big barriers at the same time.

"They are both seen as progressives, so they are more likely to go with a moderate white guy," Elmendorf said.