It's A Risk, But Bill Clinton's Visit Could Help Hillary

July 3, 2007 — -- So will campaigning by former President Bill Clinton for his wife in Iowa do her much good?

Yes, but there could be some downsides as well. Her campaign hopes his three-day tour will:

- Boost her positive ratings. She has some of the highest negative ratings of any American politician. For example, according to the Register's Iowa Poll, John Edwards is seen favorably by 79 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers, while only 18 percent view him unfavorably. Barack Obama is viewed in a positive light by 74 percent and unfavorably by 22 percent.

By contrast, Clinton is viewed favorably by 66 percent and unfavorably by 31 percent. In a close caucus fight - as this one is shaping up to be - the difference between a 31 percent unfavorable rating and an 18 percent one could be the margin of her loss in the state.

According to the Washington Post, Clinton's campaign also plans to bombard Iowa Democrats in coming days with a fancy mailing to highlight her biography. Copies weren't immediately provided to The Des Moines Register, but reporter Anne Kornblut of the Post said in her story Monday that "in a series of 12 photos, the mailing lays out her biography, from her days growing up in 'a middle-class family in neighboring Illinois' to 'working her way through law school.' "

- Net her some names. If you presume a turnout of 150,000 Democrats on caucus night, and if you presume they will be split among three or four viable contenders, all you need to win the thing is 50,000 votes spread across the state. For all the unfavorables Clinton has, she can surely find 50,000 people in Iowa who are for her.

But the profile of many Clinton supporters isn't conducive to their caucus attendance. For example, she tends to get good marks from blue-collar women. Yet many of these women have never been to a caucus. That means Clinton's campaign must first find this supporter, then show her how to find her caucus, then get her to show up on a cold January night. (And then not be rolled or intimidated by supporters of other candidates before the public voting takes place.)

It's a big challenge, but it starts with the sign-in sheets at these rallies. If this trip can net Clinton a few thousand names of new potential supporters, it will be worth it.

- Show she's electable. You can always hear some Democrat saying, "I like Hillary Clinton ... but she can't win." Caucus-goers can view a presidential candidate favorably but still vote for someone else simply because they see that candidate as one who can win in November. That's what killed Howard Dean and helped John Kerry in the 2004 caucuses.

Since Bill Clinton is one of only two living Democrats who has ever put together 270 electoral votes to win the White House, perhaps he can explain how his wife is the best person to become the third. (The campaign turned down requests for an interview with him on the subject.)

There are risks to this visit. One problem for Clinton's campaign is managing the crosscurrents created by it. For example, while it's useful to generate lists of names, having him around may make it more difficult for her to tell voters about herself.

(Let's see: We're establishing Hillary Clinton's identity and biography separate from that of her husband - and we do that by bringing out her husband to campaign for her for three days, right?)

They also risk backfires. For example, he is one of the best campaigners in recent American political history. She isn't, and the comparisons may prove unfavorable. And some Democrats may conclude general-election voters want to move on and that it's unwise to try to bring back the Clinton era.

Still, she is locked in a close, crucial race in Iowa, and all these are risks they must take. As Bill Clinton can tell you - the American presidency is always won by a risk-taker.

And Finally, A Shameless Plug: I'm filling in for Jan Mickelson today on his WHO radio show. We'll talk politics from 9 to 11:30 a.m. Join in.

DAVID YEPSEN can be reached at dyepsen@dmreg.com or (515) 284-8545.