Michigan's presidential primary set for Jan. 15

— -- Michigan leaped to the head of the presidential primary lineup Thursday, setting a Jan. 15 election that could become a key battleground for the Republican and Democratic nominations.

But Michigan's move — supported by large majorities in the state's House and Senate and backed by Gov. Jennifer Granholm — will almost certainly be countered by other states, especially Iowa and New Hampshire, which are intent on preserving their traditional primacy in the presidential selection process.

Assuming Granholm approves the measure as expected — she has promised to sign it as soon as it reaches her desk — Michigan would have the first primary and third nominating contest, behind caucuses for Wyoming Republicans on Jan. 5 and for both parties Jan. 14 in Iowa.

Michigan lawmakers supporting the move said it was crucial that Michigan's concerns be placed on the national agenda and before the presidential candidates as soon as possible.

"When they're making promises ... we want to make sure they're not just making promises to Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina," said state Senate Minority Leader Mark Schauer, a Democrat.

State Elections Director Chris Thomas predicted that a Jan. 15 primary would attract more voters than previous presidential primaries. The previous record came in 1972, when Alabama Gov. George Wallace bested George McGovern and Hubert Humphrey on the Democratic side of a contest that drew 1.9 million voters.

But Thomas said wide-open races on both sides — accompanied by massive media and advertising campaigns — could result in a turnout approaching 3 million in January.

Despite the support of most of the state's top Democratic leadership — Granholm, U.S. Sens. Carl Levin and Debbie Stabenow, and U.S. Reps. John Dingell, John Conyers and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick, among others — state party Chairman Mark Brewer issued a statement after Thursday's vote saying: "The Michigan Democratic Party has made no decision as to whether to participate in a primary."

The party's official plan, submitted last week to the Democratic National Committee, calls for Michigan Democrats to select their presidential nominee at a party-run caucus election Feb. 9. If the caucus isn't canceled, voters on the Democratic side of the Jan. 15 primary could be faced with the possibility that their votes won't count.

Top Democratic presidential candidates also equivocated Thursday about the Jan. 15 primary, with representatives for Hillary Clinton, Barack Obama and John Edwards all declining to comment on their plans for the state.

Leading Republican candidates Rudy Giuliani, Mitt Romney and John McCain appeared less hesitant, though the national Republican Party officially opposes the early primary. Giuliani welcomed the change in a statement issued Thursday afternoon.

Granholm sent a letter to all the major-party candidates late Thursday, urging them to ignore a request from Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina and Nevada to boycott Michigan for moving up to Jan. 15.

Florida, which moved its primary to Jan. 29 — also in violation of national Democratic Party rules — was sanctioned last week with the loss of all its delegates. But longtime political observers say it's an empty threat that the delegates wouldn't vote or count at the national convention.

Larry Sabato, director of the University of Virginia's Center for Politics, predicted that no matter what the national party threatens, the votes of Michigan and Florida Democrats will count at the national convention. The states are too big and have too many delegates to ignore, he said.

"I think it's all a bluff," he said. "They realize this system is insane, but they don't have the clout to do it."

Sabato said the only thing that is going to matter to any nominee is winning in November — and that means bringing voters in Michigan and Florida along for the ride, whether the national party likes it or not.