Democrats get boost in effort at Senate gains

WASHINGTON -- Democrats' efforts to pad their slim Senate majority got a boost Sunday when former New Hampshire governor Jeanne Shaheen announced that she'll challenge Sen. John Sununu, R-N.H., next year.

Shaheen cited the Senate deadlock over the Iraq war as one of the chief reasons she decided to make the race. In 2002, she lost to Sununu by five percentage points. "We are not any closer to a resolution today than we were last year. That needs to change," Shaheen told a crowd gathered at her home.

Shaheen, 60, who played a key role in helping Sen. John Kerry of Massachusetts win the Democratic presidential nomination in 2004, became the second popular ex-governor in a week to take aim at a Senate seat now held by a Republican. The other is Mark Warner, who jumped into the race Thursday for the Democratic Senate nomination in Virginia.

A July poll by the University of New Hampshire showed Shaheen leading Sununu by 16 percentage points. In Virginia, a Rasmussen Reports poll released earlier this month showed Warner with a 20 percentage point lead over his nearest potential GOP foe, Jim Gilmore, another former governor.

Sen. Charles Schumer, a New Yorker who heads the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, called the entrance of Shaheen and Warner into their state's races "a tremendous shot in the arm."

Not that the party needed it. "The political environment certainly is in the Democrats favor right now," acknowledged Rebecca Fisher, spokeswoman for the National Republican Senatorial Campaign Committee. Fisher insisted party operatives aren't panicked because "we've got a ways to go" before Election Day.

Schumer agreed. "It's a long, long way to go," he said.

Heading into the 2008 elections, Republicans face several challenges, including:

•Numbers:The GOP is defending 22 Senate seats next year compared to 12 for Democrats. Republican fundraising is lagging. Reports filed at the Federal Election Commission last month showed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee raising $34 million so far this year. The National Republican Senatorial Committee's total: $18 million.

• Retirements:Incumbent Republican Sens. Wayne Allard of Colorado, Chuck Hagel of Nebraska and John Warner of Virginia, all have announced plans to retire at the end of next year, giving Democrats a shot at seats that otherwise might be out of reach.

•Known commodities:In addition to Shaheen and Warner, two proven statewide winners, Democrats are hoping to lure former Senator Bob Kerrey of Nebraska into making a comeback run for Hagel's seat. Kerrey, now president of the New School, a New York City university, says he'll decide soon.

• Scandal:Sen. Larry Craig, R-Idaho, is battling charges that he solicited sex in an airport restroom. And FBI agents recently raided the home of Sen. Ted Stevens, R-Alaska, as part of a corruption probe.

Craig has said he will resign by the end of this month if charges against him aren't dismissed. Stevens said he's innocent; he's seeking re-election.

Distractions in Idaho and Alaska, states where Republicans expected no problems, are particularly unwelcome to a party that needs to defend Republican incumbents who have strong Democratic challengers, such as Sens. Susan Collins of Maine, Norm Coleman of Minnesota and Gordon Smith of Oregon.

The Senate race in New Hampshire illustrates some of the difficulties faced by Republicans this year. University of New Hampshire pollster Andrew Smith says Sununu's favorability ratings have been dropping steadily — along with those of President Bush and the Iraq war. His July poll showed 35% of Granite State residents backing the war, compared to 78% in April 2003.

"That's certainly the major issue in the race," Smith said.

Fisher of the Republican senatorial committee noted, however, that Sununu beat Shaheen once before. "We know the issues that can defeat her," Fisher said.

In other states, Democrats don't appear to be in position, at least now, to capitalize on the strong national trends in their favor. Despite the strong political trends in the Democrats' favor, the party has yet to recruit strong candidates in Kentucky, North Carolina and New Mexico, all swing states where Republican senators are up for re-election next year.

Though Democrats won control of the Senate in last year's elections, increasing their margin could have important policy implications.

In a chamber where the rules allow a minority of 41 senators to block legislation, Democrats' bare one-vote majority — provided by two independents who normally vote with the Democrats — has not been enough to control the agenda on issues such as the Iraq war and immigration.