Candidates leave some Christians cold

WASHINGTON -- Somebody's got to win the presidential straw poll this weekend at a gathering of Christian conservative luminaries and activists. The question is whether it will be "undecided" or an actual candidate.

Grumbling, ambivalence and talk of bolting to a third party have marked the weeks leading up to today's "values voter" conference sponsored by the Family Research Council.

All the Republican presidential hopefuls are set to make personal appeals and, perhaps, prove themselves to a crowd that could top 2,500.

Author and radio host William Bennett, the former U.S. Education secretary, says the two-day conference — in his words, the season's "premier meeting of social religious conservatives" — could be a turning point. "Somebody could do very well in the straw poll and surprise people," he says, or somebody could do badly and be damaged.

Christian conservatives have not coalesced behind any Republican and have objections to most of them. Rudy Giuliani supports legal abortion, a deal breaker for many. Fred Thompson and John McCain oppose a federal ban on same-sex marriage and led efforts to limit political spending by interest groups. Mitt Romney is Mormon — troubling to some Christians — and didn't oppose abortion until 2004.

"None of these guys are running because they're social conservatives," says Rick Santorum, a former Pennsylvania senator. "They all have problems on these issues, and most of them aren't comfortable talking about them."

Former Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee is a Southern Baptist pastor and Christian conservative but hasn't turned that into first-tier polling and fundraising. "Mike is strong on core social issues," says FRC president Tony Perkins, but conservatives are critical of his tax record, and he "is not making it clear that he has a firm grip on the threat" of radical Islam.

One of the most influential religious conservatives in the country, psychologist, author and radio host James Dobson, has ruled out Giuliani, McCain and Thompson. He is a leading voice for ditching the GOP if Giuliani, who tops national polls, is the nominee.

Dobson, who declined an interview request, told Sean Hannity last week on Fox News Channel that he knows a third-party movement could give Democrats the presidency. But he said he stands by what he told 400,000 people at a rally in 1988: "I pledge hereby never for the rest of my life to vote for anyone who would kill innocent babies."

Veteran activist Phyllis Schlafly, head of the Eagle Forum, says she's "never been a third-party person." She'd like to hear more from GOP candidates about practical issues such as jobs, in order to "reclaim the people we call Reagan Democrats" and win the election. "We're not just having an ideological conference. We're thinking politically, too," she says of the weekend.

In general elections, religious conservatives are a key component of GOP organization and turnout — if they are energized. Though they don't dominate state parties, they can influence primaries and caucuses when they throw their weight behind a candidate.

Polls this month by Insider Advantage, an Atlanta-based Republican firm, found that religious conservatives are 39% of the GOP electorate in South Carolina, 35% in Iowa and 27% in Michigan. They favored Thompson in South Carolina and Michigan, but not by much.

Bennett says Giuliani could make inroads at the conference by talking about how he took on crime and obscene art as New York mayor.

"He fights for causes dear to the heart of the audience he's addressing, and he ought to remind them of that," Bennett says.

Richard Land, president of the Southern Baptist Convention's Ethics & Religious Liberty Commission, has a much longer list of suggestions. Among them: Pledge to keep the party's anti-abortion platform plank, sign any bill that restricts the procedure and veto any attempt to loosen restrictions.

"That would do a lot to mitigate the damage for a lot of people," Land says, though "it wouldn't suffice for me."

It's unclear how many religious conservatives would abandon a ticket led by Giuliani. Land's estimate is up to one-third, while Perkins says, "The vast majority of us draw the line at the life issue." He says Giuliani would threaten Republican hopes even without an organized exodus to a third party — by precipitating "a third party of the disengaged."

Straw poll results, and the possible emergence of a Christian conservative favorite, are due Saturday afternoon. "People have been waiting," Perkins says. "They're at the point of making a decision."