GOP veterans to leave battleground

WASHINGTON -- Thirteen years ago, Rep. Ray LaHood won a congressional seat in a Republican tidal wave that gave his party control of the House for the first time in four decades. Now, the Illinois Republican is part of a new trend.

LaHood is one of a dozen House Republicans, many of them veterans able to hold swing districts by the force of their personality, who have announced they will not seek re-election next year. More than half the retirements are in the Midwest, a perennial political battleground.

That's complicating what already was shaping up as a difficult campaign for the Republican Party. "We've created a big headache," LaHood says.

The Republicans who are stepping down insist they are doing so for personal reasons. Some are running for higher office. LaHood admits that political reality played a part in his calculations. "Let's face it: It's no fun being in the minority," he said. "The prospects of the House turning Republican in 2008 are slim."

Rep. Deborah Pryce, R-Ohio, who's also giving up her seat at the end of her term, hopes her party's political doldrums are temporary. "Right now, it's like we're on stall," she said.

Three of the Republican retirements are in Ohio, home state of House Republican leader John Boehner. In Minnesota, Rep. Jim Ramstad's retirement gives Democrats a 50-50 chance to pick up his seat, according to non-partisan political analyst Charlie Cook.

In Illinois, former House speaker Dennis Hastert is one of three Republicans planning to step down. The Associated Press reported Thursday that Hastert may step down before the end of his term — but withhold an announcement so a special election can't be scheduled on the date of the Illinois primary, when many Democratic voters are likely to turn out for favorite son presidential candidate Barack Obama.

"Retirements when you are in the minority are like the flu. They're contagious," says former representative Martin Frost, who chaired the Democratic congressional campaign committee the year after his party lost control of the House of Representatives in 1994.

They'll also force Republicans to devote resources to districts they might otherwise have taken for granted in a year when Rep. Tom Cole, an Oklahoman who chairs the GOP congressional campaign committee, says, "I don't have enough money to be generous."

Democrats are signaling they will compete. In LaHood's downstate Illinois district — which has not elected a Democrat since 1917, according to the congressman — the Democratic candidate is former basketball coach Dick Versace, who won the National Invitation Tournament for Bradley University in 1982.

Paul Green, a political scientist at Chicago's Roosevelt University, rates Debbie Halvorson, the Democratic candidate for the seat occupied by Republican Rep. Jerry Weller, R-Ill., as "the strongest candidate of any of the challengers" in Illinois.

In Ohio, Republicans have yet to settle on a candidate to replace Pryce, a 15-year congressional veteran who is retiring to spend more time with her young daughter. Democrats back Mary Jo Kilroy, who came within a half-percentage point of beating Pryce last year.

Rep. Ralph Regula's decision to step down after 35 years in Congress gives Democrats another shot at an Ohio seat. Their candidate: state Sen. John Boccieri, an Air Force reservist who recently completed a fourth tour of duty supporting troops in Iraq and Afghanistan.

One bright spot for Republicans: The seat being vacated by Rep. David Hobson, R-Ohio, appears in little danger of falling into Democratic hands. Clark County Sheriff Gene Kelly, a Democrat, said this week he won't run because Republican contender Steve Austria is a shoo-in. "I hate to concede already, but it's the truth," Kelly told Politico.com. "I don't know of a Democrat out there that can take on Steve Austria."