2008 primer: Election is one year away
WASHINGTON -- On Nov. 4, 2008, U.S. voters go to the polls to elect the next president, who might be the first president to be: a woman, black, a Mormon, Hispanic, an Italian American, a Vietnam veteran.
Or they might pick someone else.
The two major parties' nominees could be wrapped up before you pick out a Valentine's Day card. Voters in Iowa will make their choice three days into the new year.
A look at some of the facts and figures on the race a year out:
What the polls say
Hillary Rodham Clinton is widening her lead over Barack Obama among Democrats and Democratic-leaning independents, according to the most recent USA TODAY/Gallup Poll taken Oct. 12-14.
Former New York City mayor Rudy Giuliani leads among Republicans and Republican-leaning voters, although more than half of Republicans said they "might change their mind."
The breakdown of the national poll, which has a margin of error of plus or minus 5 percentage points:
Democrats
Hillary Clinton: 50%.
Barack Obama: 21%.
John Edwards: 13%.
Other Democratic candidates combined for 8%.
Republicans
Rudy Giuliani: 32%.
Fred Thompson: 18%.
John McCain: 14%.
Mitt Romney: 10%.
Other Republican candidates combined for 16%.
Mark Blumenthal, editor of the non-partisan pollster.com, suggests caution on Clinton's positive results. "These perceptions can turn around in a great big hurry if you lose an early primary," he told USA TODAY when the poll came out in mid-October.
Clinton appears to lead in Iowa, home of the nation's first caucuses, but her numbers are within The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll's error margin. The results of the early October poll: Clinton, 29%; Edwards, 23%; Obama, 22%, with a margin of error of plus or minus 4.9 percentage points.
Romney leads in an extremely fractured race in Iowa. He has the support of 29% of likely GOP caucus-goers, compared with Thompson at 18%, Arkansas governor Mike Huckabee at 12% and Giuliani at 11%, according to The Des Moines Register Iowa Poll taken Oct. 1-3.
What the voters say
The voting is starting so early that Americans lucky enough to have a say in nominating the next presidential candidates may very well make their choices on flawed presumptions about where the country will be a year from now.
What if, after Feb. 5, when voters in more than half the states will have already had a say, the economy goes into a recession? Or the war in Iraq takes a dramatic turn one way or another? Or the U.S. strikes Iran's nuclear facilities?
Will voters wish they hadn't made up their minds so early?
Right now, the No. 1 issue on voters' minds remains Iraq, with 38% naming it as the most important issue they'll take into account when voting, according to the Oct. 12-14 USA TODAY/Gallup poll.
Six in 10 call the invasion of Iraq a mistake, equal to the highest levels of anti-war feeling during the Vietnam conflict. Despite reports of progress after this year's rise in U.S. force levels, a majority say the situation in Iraq is getting worse for the United States. Only 16% say it's getting better.
The issue coming in a distant second in the poll: health care and health insurance, with 18% naming that issue, followed by the economy, named by 15%. Homeland security was fourth at 6%.
A national survey by the Pew Research Center for the People & the Press, conducted Oct. 17-23, put the economy as the No. 1 issue, with health care and Iraq tied for second and education and jobs right after that. That's about what voters said three years ago. Pew noted that what's different is voters seem more concerned about energy and less concerned about social issues, such as gay marriage and abortion.
What the pundits say
Stuart Rothenberg, editor, Rothenberg Political Report:
On issues: "Most elections are not about kinds of issues. They're about big thematic things like change or continuity. Change is definitely the No. 1 issue, but it's not really an issue. Change is the No. 1 theme. Both sides will talk about change, they'll just talk about some different things. Republicans will use immigration as an example. Democrats will use the war in Iraq and health care."
On likely nominees: Hillary Clinton for Democrats; no one, for Republicans, but if forced to choose, Mitt Romney.
Eric Davis, professor of political science at Middlebury College in Vermont:
On issues: "Certainly national security and the economy are going to be the top two issues. What I don't know at this point is which of those will be dominant. It's going to depend on events in Iraq and Iran and on whether the economy stays reasonably strong or slides into a recession."
On likely nominees: "I would expect, at this point, the most likely nominees to be Hillary Clinton and Rudy Giuliani. I'm more confident about saying Clinton than I am saying Giuliani. The national polls and most state polls show Clinton pulling away from the pack. But fewer than half of the Republican voters have really made up their minds, so a lot can change in the Republican race."
Dennis Goldford, political science professor at Iowa's Drake University:
On issues: "National security is the No. 1 issue with both a domestic and foreign aspect to it. The foreign aspect is how we deal with Islamic radicalism and all ... Iraq, Afghanistan and possibly Iran. The domestic dimension of national security is how we balance the need for security with the preservation of our constitutional rights. Absent a recession, the second principal issue thus far would seem to be health care, and immigration is lurking there in the wings as a third issue."
On likely nominees: "It's easier to say who are the least likely than it is to say who are the most likely. You have to remember at this time four years ago on the Democratic side, there was the big fight between Dick Gephardt and Howard Dean and everybody was saying Howard Dean was the likely nominee. By mid-December of '03, (John) Kerry's campaign was on life support. Lo and behold, he recovered and won the caucuses and the nomination. That's why to say at this point who's likely to get it is just impossible."
Bottom line on the candidates
Democrats
Joe Bidden: The longtime Delaware senator has had some of the best debate one-liners of any candidate, no small task for a politician with a propensity to think out loud and talk in fat paragraphs. He's made serious points about Middle East policy and, by extension, the lack of experience of some of his rival Democrats on such matters. But he's had trouble raising money to get his message out, and the occasional gaffe still haunts him.
Hillary Rodham Clinton: The New York senator is the clear front-runner. But after 16 years in the national spotlight, can she be the agent of change she says the country needs? Her Democratic opponents, especially John Edwards and Barack Obama, have begun attacking her more aggressively as a risky choice for the Democrats in 2008. She's a skilled campaigner and fundraiser but has been criticized for being too cautious when asked to state her position on issues.
Christopher Dodd: If any candidate ends up with a good-try consolation prize, it might be the Connecticut senator, who has held his own in debates and often has been the first to point out vulnerabilities of the front-runner, Clinton. But more than Obama and Clinton, he and Biden suffer from the senators' syndrome — the idea that someone immersed in the sometimes-detached world of the U.S. Senate has the connectedness to be president of the United States.
John Edwards: Compared with 2004, the former North Carolina senator has run as a more unabashed liberal this time. He's done well in debates and has a good organization in crucial Iowa. But his focus on poverty and "two Americas" — basically the haves and have-nots — has been undermined by stories about $400 haircuts and a huge new home back in North Carolina. Although Edwards lags behind Clinton and Obama in national polls, he is a serious contender in Iowa.
Mike Gravel: Different war, same opposition could best describe Mike Gravel's reason for seeking the presidency. The former Alaska senator and Vietnam War opponent has called for an immediate withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq. His low levels of fundraising and support in the polls didn't merit an invitation to the latest Democratic debate in Philadelphia.
Dennis Kucinich: The Ohio congressman appeals to the far left with impassioned anti-war and impeach-Bush appeals and socially liberal positions. But his out-in-left-field status was probably enshrined forever when he acknowledged in an Oct. 30 debate in Philadelphia that he had once told the colorful actress Shirley MacLaine that he had seen a UFO, and that he had felt "a connection" in his heart and "heard directions" in his mind.
Barack Obama: The Illinois freshman senator has had trouble meeting expectations and convincing Americans he is ready for the White House. He has had rough spots in debates, but he is drawing the biggest and most boisterous crowds of people excited about his "politics of hope" message.
Bill Richardson: His resume is daunting: New Mexico governor, a former energy secretary, a diplomat with extensive foreign policy experience. His advertising is smart and folksy. But he's been unable to achieve serious contender status, in part because of tepid debate performances. He also faces better-financed candidates.
Republicans
Rudy Giuliani: The former New York City mayor, who won national recognition for his leadership after the Sept. 11, 2001, attacks is still the national front-runner in polls, a position that defies his pro-abortion-rights and pro-gay-rights stands, both of which are prominently contrary to the Republican platform. But his appeal may be illusory. He trails in polls in Iowa and New Hampshire. He's counting on a big-state strategy to rescue him when a crush of states vote Feb. 5.
Mike Huckabee: In some ways, the most intriguing Republican, the ex-Arkansas governor has looked better on paper in a conservative GOP primary than he has done in the polls. But he has been gaining ground lately, and his fundraising may be picking up just in time to make his case to Iowa caucus-goers. The former Baptist minister appeals to some social conservatives, but others worry about his lack of experience in national security and that he has been too soft on the threat of terrorists.
Duncan Hunter: The genial California congressman has hung in with a get-tough-on-immigration, limited-government script, but the hard-core immigration reformers are more likely to go to the more bombastic Tom Tancredo and there are more prominent limited-government advocates in the field.
John McCain: The Arizona senator is living proof that some candidates, like horses, do not run best in the lead. The one-time favorite for the GOP nomination stumbled badly, in fundraising and in the polls but has recently earned a second look by returning to his maverick outsider nature, attacking government spending and reviving his irreverent style. His fortunes may be more tied to the war in Iraq than any candidate because he is an unabashed supporter of the "surge strategy" that is still playing out in Iraq. His support of a path to citizenship for some illegal immigrants also hurt him badly with party faithful.
Ron Paul: The libertarian Texas congressman has raised buckets of cash in cyberspace and has a big following on the Internet and even on college campuses. But organizing in cyberspace and organizing in precincts in Iowa and New Hampshire are fundamentally different, and that's where the libertarian's dream could end.
Mitt Romney: The former Massachusetts governor campaigns as a private-sector success story and Washington outsider who wants to bring his background as a turn-around chief executive to the nation's capital. He's well organized in Iowa and New Hampshire, but doubts persist about his recent conversion to anti-abortion and other social conservative positions. And his Mormonism keeps coming up in polls and on the campaign trail. Some think he needs to give a major national speech about his faith similar to the one that John F. Kennedy gave in Houston about his Catholicism in 1960.
Tom Tancredo: If keeping illegal immigration front and center in the presidential debate was his goal, the Colorado congressman can declare success and go home. If contending for the GOP nomination was also his goal, that's a measure unlikely to be met.
Fred Thompson: The reluctant candidate in so many ways, he has both tantalized and disappointed in his first two months on the stump. Some think the actor and ex-senator from Tennessee is just the right mix of conservatism, folksiness and Americana to rekindle Ronald Reagan's legacy, but others wonder if he will work hard enough to win.
The voting starts sooner than you think
By the end of the day Feb. 5, dubbed Super Tuesday, more than half of the states will have had their presidential primaries or caucuses.
Here is the schedule through that day. New Hampshire has not declared its primary date, but state law requires it to be the first primary in the nation. Jan. 8 is a possibility.
January
• Jan. 3: Iowa caucuses
• Jan. 5: Wyoming GOP caucuses
• Jan. 15: Michigan primary
• Jan. 19: Nevada caucuses, South Carolina GOP caucuses
• Jan. 26: South Carolina Democratic caucuses
• Jan. 29: Florida primary
February
• Feb. 1: Maine GOP caucuses
• Feb. 5: Super Tuesday in Alabama, Alaska (caucuses), Arizona, Arkansas, California, Colorado (caucuses), Connecticut, Delaware, Georgia, Idaho (Democratic caucuses), Illinois, Kansas (Democratic caucuses), Minnesota (caucuses), Missouri, New Jersey, New Mexico (Democratic caucuses), New York, North Dakota (caucuses), Oklahoma, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah.
Source: National Association of Secretaries of State
Who's winning the money race
A list of candidates who raised the most in the third quarter and the cash they had on hand as of Sept. 30, according to their campaign finance reports.
Democrats
Hillary Clinton: $27.9 million raised, $50.5 million on hand.
Barack Obama: $21.3 million raised, $36.1 million on hand.
John Edwards: $7.2 million raised, $12.4 million on hand.
Bill Richardson: $5.4 million raised, $5.8 million on hand.
Chris Dodd: $1.5 million raised, $3.9 million on hand.
Republicans
Mitt Romney: $18.4 million raised, $9.2 million on hand.
Fred Thompson: $12.8 million raised, $7.1 million on hand.
Rudy Giuliani: $11.6 million raised, $16.6 million on hand.
John McCain: $5.7 million raised; $3.5 million on hand.
Ron Paul: $5.3 million raised, $5.4 million on hand.
Source: The Center for Responsive Politics, a non-partisan, non-profit group that tracks money in politics.